Economic Impacts of Iran War
03-18-2026 | 05:56 AM
#151
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Joined: Jan 2016
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Likes: 136
There were some extreme rogue attitudes back then, likely leftover from the 'All In" mentality needed for WW-II, and enabled by a relative lack of transparency.
Media, and the likes of Frank Church, put most of that to bed in the decades since. Watergate, Iran-Contra and the Biden coverup all blew up in the faces of the perps.
It's even harder in the era of internet, leaks, and now Alt Media
I can't really nail down a single logical motive. So I tend to think you're right, that multiple factors all played into this. Off the top of my head, in no particular order....
Distraction (ICE? JE?)
Subversive political pressure via Mossad?
Payback for decades of murdering American soldiers who were not involved with Iran?
Golden Opportunity, the A-Hole-Atollahs all in the same room together?
Israeli Ultimatum (they can always use their own nukes, and it's a good argument that a conventional war is better than letting IL get backed into what they consider a corner).
Sincere desire to improve ME stability and global economy? It will objectively be better once the dust settles, going to take IR a long time to rebuild. Maybe he views this as his legacy?
Payback for insultingly refusing to negotiate? Assassination plots?
Trump is objectively a narcissist (along with many other pols). But IMO he does not, after careful and lengthy observation, appear to actually be crazy... he just plays a crazy guy on TV.
But again, it doesn't really matter how we got here...
Media, and the likes of Frank Church, put most of that to bed in the decades since. Watergate, Iran-Contra and the Biden coverup all blew up in the faces of the perps.
It's even harder in the era of internet, leaks, and now Alt Media
I can't really nail down a single logical motive. So I tend to think you're right, that multiple factors all played into this. Off the top of my head, in no particular order....
Distraction (ICE? JE?)
Subversive political pressure via Mossad?
Payback for decades of murdering American soldiers who were not involved with Iran?
Golden Opportunity, the A-Hole-Atollahs all in the same room together?
Israeli Ultimatum (they can always use their own nukes, and it's a good argument that a conventional war is better than letting IL get backed into what they consider a corner).
Sincere desire to improve ME stability and global economy? It will objectively be better once the dust settles, going to take IR a long time to rebuild. Maybe he views this as his legacy?
Payback for insultingly refusing to negotiate? Assassination plots?
Trump is objectively a narcissist (along with many other pols). But IMO he does not, after careful and lengthy observation, appear to actually be crazy... he just plays a crazy guy on TV.
But again, it doesn't really matter how we got here...
[MOD EDIT]
Last edited by rickair7777; 03-18-2026 at 06:50 AM. Reason: Partisan Politics
03-18-2026 | 06:06 AM
#152
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,488
Likes: 137
This is not correct.
The relationship the US has with the Israeli Lobby, the control and power they enjoy, is unique not only in the USA but the world.
The US-Israeli Lobby is nothing like any other lobbying group in existence.
I'm not here to debate whether this benefits the USA and our interests, but to claim the Israeli lobby is "just like any other lobby" is a belief based in denial and lack of awareness.
All evidence points that the Lobby has an immense amount of power and control on not only our foreign policy but in many aspects domestic policy as well.
It is true that not all Jewish people are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jewish, however there is no other example of a foreign lobby in the US that has so much control and power, nor is there another example in the entire world of a foreign lobby having so much control of another country. In that respect, the US-Israeli relationship is totally unique.
It is also true that Zionism was established as an ideological goal well before the Holocaust in Europe.
The relationship the US has with the Israeli Lobby, the control and power they enjoy, is unique not only in the USA but the world.
The US-Israeli Lobby is nothing like any other lobbying group in existence.
I'm not here to debate whether this benefits the USA and our interests, but to claim the Israeli lobby is "just like any other lobby" is a belief based in denial and lack of awareness.
All evidence points that the Lobby has an immense amount of power and control on not only our foreign policy but in many aspects domestic policy as well.
It is true that not all Jewish people are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jewish, however there is no other example of a foreign lobby in the US that has so much control and power, nor is there another example in the entire world of a foreign lobby having so much control of another country. In that respect, the US-Israeli relationship is totally unique.
It is also true that Zionism was established as an ideological goal well before the Holocaust in Europe.
03-18-2026 | 06:28 AM
#153
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 3,680
Likes: 245
This is not correct.
The relationship the US has with the Israeli Lobby, the control and power they enjoy, is unique not only in the USA but the world.
The US-Israeli Lobby is nothing like any other lobbying group in existence.
I'm not here to debate whether this benefits the USA and our interests, but to claim the Israeli lobby is "just like any other lobby" is a belief based in denial and lack of awareness.
All evidence points that the Lobby has an immense amount of power and control on not only our foreign policy but in many aspects domestic policy as well.
It is true that not all Jewish people are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jewish, however there is no other example of a foreign lobby in the US that has so much control and power, nor is there another example in the entire world of a foreign lobby having so much control of another country. In that respect, the US-Israeli relationship is totally unique.
It is also true that Zionism was established as an ideological goal well before the Holocaust in Europe.
The relationship the US has with the Israeli Lobby, the control and power they enjoy, is unique not only in the USA but the world.
The US-Israeli Lobby is nothing like any other lobbying group in existence.
I'm not here to debate whether this benefits the USA and our interests, but to claim the Israeli lobby is "just like any other lobby" is a belief based in denial and lack of awareness.
All evidence points that the Lobby has an immense amount of power and control on not only our foreign policy but in many aspects domestic policy as well.
It is true that not all Jewish people are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jewish, however there is no other example of a foreign lobby in the US that has so much control and power, nor is there another example in the entire world of a foreign lobby having so much control of another country. In that respect, the US-Israeli relationship is totally unique.
It is also true that Zionism was established as an ideological goal well before the Holocaust in Europe.
03-18-2026 | 06:49 AM
#154
Thread Starter
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 45,098
Likes: 788
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Maybe motive(s) do matter as to how we get out of this mess. This is kind of like the covid forum, needs careful moderation so as to not go off on the usual partisan dogwhistle tangents.
03-18-2026 | 07:22 AM
#155
Thread Starter
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 45,098
Likes: 788
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
This is not correct.
The relationship the US has with the Israeli Lobby, the control and power they enjoy, is unique not only in the USA but the world.
The US-Israeli Lobby is nothing like any other lobbying group in existence.
I'm not here to debate whether this benefits the USA and our interests, but to claim the Israeli lobby is "just like any other lobby" is a belief based in denial and lack of awareness.
All evidence points that the Lobby has an immense amount of power and control on not only our foreign policy but in many aspects domestic policy as well.
It is true that not all Jewish people are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jewish, however there is no other example of a foreign lobby in the US that has so much control and power, nor is there another example in the entire world of a foreign lobby having so much control of another country. In that respect, the US-Israeli relationship is totally unique.
It is also true that Zionism was established as an ideological goal well before the Holocaust in Europe.
The relationship the US has with the Israeli Lobby, the control and power they enjoy, is unique not only in the USA but the world.
The US-Israeli Lobby is nothing like any other lobbying group in existence.
I'm not here to debate whether this benefits the USA and our interests, but to claim the Israeli lobby is "just like any other lobby" is a belief based in denial and lack of awareness.
All evidence points that the Lobby has an immense amount of power and control on not only our foreign policy but in many aspects domestic policy as well.
It is true that not all Jewish people are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jewish, however there is no other example of a foreign lobby in the US that has so much control and power, nor is there another example in the entire world of a foreign lobby having so much control of another country. In that respect, the US-Israeli relationship is totally unique.
It is also true that Zionism was established as an ideological goal well before the Holocaust in Europe.
03-18-2026 | 07:36 AM
#156
Banned
Joined: Feb 2025
Posts: 41
Likes: 51
I'm thinking we will climb up the escalation ladder and this will significantly hurt our industry, economy and relationships with allies.
03-18-2026 | 07:55 AM
#157
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Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
The question now is how long to either open the strait, setup some scheme to enable shipping, or negotiate an armistice. Or likely some combination. Yes there's uncertainty as to duration and extent of economic impact. But the US administration *should* have a political incentive to minimize that (IL probably doesn't, like the GCC they want to get in their licks while the getting is good).
Of note, the GCC states are now pushing the US to fully dismantle IR's force projection capabilities before we call it off. Like most, they were not in favor of this evolution, but not that we're here they want to take full advantage of it.
03-18-2026 | 08:19 AM
#158
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 9,460
Likes: 473
Yes there is a difference.
From experience, I respect the hell out of IL military and intel. I consider them our most valuable ally in the region.
I understand how their world-view came about.
I also don't trust their government agencies or personnel any further than I could throw Gaza with one arm.
From experience, I respect the hell out of IL military and intel. I consider them our most valuable ally in the region.
I understand how their world-view came about.
I also don't trust their government agencies or personnel any further than I could throw Gaza with one arm.
I don’t trust Israel - they have their own religious and political agenda. You respect the hell out of their military and intelligence? Remind me who hit and killed and wounded dozens on the USS Liberty? Oops. And how many US warships did Iran take out?
Their intelligence will say what they need to for their own agenda. Eg, convincing the west that Iran was an imminent threat to the west. Despite our own intelligence saying no, they’re at least 10 yrs away at best, and I’m sure you saw the news of a certain somebody in intelligence stepping down saying pretty much just that.
None of this bodes well for us as Americans and the airline industry. And for some of us who actually travel internationally with family, this just paints a big red target on the backs of every American overseas. We are in more danger now as foreigners visiting overseas somewhere.
03-18-2026 | 08:41 AM
#159
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Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
They have *tried* to take out many, over many decades. They're just not very good at it.
Their intelligence will say what they need to for their own agenda. Eg, convincing the west that Iran was an imminent threat to the west. Despite our own intelligence saying no, they’re at least 10 yrs away at best, and I’m sure you saw the news of a certain somebody in intelligence stepping down saying pretty much just that.
I think our industry in 2026 is going to take a hit... to sensitive to spikes. The rest of the economy is TBD.
Potentially true, but so low on my list of priorities that I don't even care. I deal with that kind of thing by picking alternative travel destinations. I like to go places where crowds and civil unrest are low and the dollar is high.
03-18-2026 | 10:17 AM
#160
Thread Starter
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
For those cheering for the Iran team on this, good news...
They damaged five US tankers in SA via drone attack. That plus the two lost from inventory in the midair will constitute a significant degradation tanker capacity, and therefore strike capacity until replaced or repaired.
They damaged five US tankers in SA via drone attack. That plus the two lost from inventory in the midair will constitute a significant degradation tanker capacity, and therefore strike capacity until replaced or repaired.
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