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Originally Posted by hoover
(Post 4021540)
going to be very hard to hold those islands in the SOH..lives will definitely be lost..idk. I think you may be right, but im not sure it's a good idea.
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What we may have here friends, is the Caine Mutiny bridge in the storm scene. Only ours is a very real time drama and there’s no Van Johnson around to make the tough divert call. Much less make it stick.
https://youtu.be/fWYs-bFK9_s?si=xLGoUVpxPOECUVMx |
I have to say this again, apparently.
The war is a disaster. Billions of $ spent, dead soldiers, dead civilians, and nothing to show for it. Iran now controls the straight. No clear objective going in. None today. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 4021426)
I’m thinking the timing of this pseudo ceasefire correlates pretty well with the time necessary to get the remaining Marine Expeditionary Unit and the 82nd airborne into position. I think Iran is about to lose possession of a number of islands - perhaps permanently. The big loser? China. They buy the vast majority of Iran’s oil - as much as 1.4 million barrels a day prior to the war.
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Originally Posted by Lowslung
(Post 4021625)
As repeated many times here and elsewhere; oil is a global commodity. You take a big chunk out of circulation, we all pay more. Short of the U.S. banning oil exports & nationalizing our own industry to include recalibrating our refineries or building new ones to use our own oil (not happening anytime soon), taking that oil off market will hurt everyone. The reason we de-sanctioned Iranian and Russian oil in the middle of a war was to put downward pressure on prices that were quickly becoming untenable. As usual, these issues are far more complex than an evening news sound bite or even a 3hr podcast hosted by a UFC fighter can convey.
Not sure we’d have liked the result though. https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/com...7,200,200_.jpg “Millions for defense, not one cent for tribute.”― Thomas Jefferson |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 4021700)
Oh, absolutely. And it would have been far easier to just look the other way in WWI and just concentrate on Japan in WWII and let the UK and the USSR fight it out with Nazi Germany and Italy. The US sustained a lot of casualties and civilian rationing that lasted until 1946 ( https://www.nationalww2museum.org/wa...ng-during-wwii) and incurred a lot of debt that we could have avoided had we let the rest of the world just beat itself to death protected by our two big moats to East and west.
Not sure we’d have liked the result though. |
Originally Posted by Merequetengue
(Post 4021299)
Don’t forget our tax money in expensive weapons to deal with the 20k drones.
I forget, how much did we give Ukraine? How has the policies against Iran worked from ‘78 to 2/26? Life was really good, gas was low… things were humming along nicely. It would seem anyone with a modicum of common sense can conclude that to risk losing that, there was most likely a threat that a President finally had the balls to address rather than saying “Don’t”. I’ve got between 51 and 111 days for oil to retreat to $70, the stock market to gain about 1k, no furloughs to happen and no a/c delivery changes. I like my chances. I said several pages back oil would retreat 20-30% almost immediately when a deal was reached. It retreated 17% on nothing more than a ceasefire announcement. Where are my oil” to the moon” chicken littles at? |
Originally Posted by vaxedtothemax
(Post 4021776)
I forget, how much did we give Ukraine?
How has the policies against Iran worked from ‘78 to 2/26? Life was really good, gas was low… things were humming along nicely. It would seem anyone with a modicum of common sense can conclude that to risk losing that, there was most likely a threat that a President finally had the balls to address rather than saying “Don’t”. I’ve got between 51 and 111 days for oil to retreat to $70, the stock market to gain about 1k, no furloughs to happen and no a/c delivery changes. I like my chances. I said several pages back oil would retreat 20-30% almost immediately when a deal was reached. It retreated 17% on nothing more than a ceasefire announcement. Where are my oil” to the moon” chicken littles at? |
Originally Posted by vaxedtothemax
(Post 4021776)
I forget, how much did we give Ukraine?
Oh, and in case you were curious, estimates range between $20 and $30 billion for what’s been spent in the first MONTH of the Iran war. Of course, that doesn’t consider intangibles like American lives lost or forever changed by wounds suffered in the conflict, the impossibility of replacing out of production aircraft like F-15Es, KC-135s, and E-3s, the fact that we have far outpaced precision ordinance production with the massive amount we have expended, or the fact that we have taught Iran that our bases are vulnerable to $25,000 drones and that they can shut down the straight whenever they like. Then we can talk about the inevitable costs of keeping a force in the region indefinitely to ensure the peace once the dust settles. Feel free to keep doing you (I have little doubt you will), but I very much prefer the approach where we support a nascent democracy and gut an adversary’s ability to threaten its neighbors with zero direct involvement or lives at risk vs. the one where we Leroy Jenkins our way into an ill conceived and poorly planned operation that leaves American servicemen dead and wounded, depletes our military’s resources exponentially, blows up the world economy, and leaves our enemies in a better strategic position than when we started. But, hey, that’s just me. |
Originally Posted by METO Guido
(Post 4021571)
It’s a terrible idea and everybody knows it.
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