what about a possible "piece break up"?
Allegiant replaces mad dogs with some (but obviously not) all AirTran 717s...
other 717's bought by DeltaNort to replace DC-9s (longshot guess)
Alaska and SWA by 737s and expand ops

or...

AirTran just sells/trades 717's for EMB-190's or EMB 175's or CRJ-700/900s

who knows? I am just throwing stuff out here.....

i may have just given away great ideas and recieve nothing for it, if this happens the companies should send me a big check

 

Again, one has to ask ... is AirTran really the airline most likely to go under?

 

I used that same "f&%$#bait" word and got a nastygram from a moderator for it.

 

Mod note:

We don't really discuss moderation at the site. If you'd like to PM me, I'd be happy to explain why you got an infraction.

 

Thanks to everyone for their great points of view. I'll be one of AirTran's furloughed FO's, who wanted to stay for a long term career. Therefore, I was trying to gather data about AirTran's long term prospects. Some of you have asked for the reasoning why AirTran may fail. I penned a short thesis for failure below. I would value others opinions on when AirTran may recall pilots (company says 18-24 months), or how you believe AirTran will weather this storm from a financial point of view.

Please note, this is only my opinion so be kind in your rebuttles. I know you are all busy so I'll be as breif as possible.

1. Everyone knows that the high cost of oil is the primary cause of problems. But AirTran's business model was built on low cost oil, and their bussiness environment may not allow them to transform. Yes oil has fluctuated, but given world supply and demand factors, what do you believe the long term trend of oil prices will be.
2. AirTran is a low cost carrier, therefore there is no place to cut corporate costs. We saw all the weakly capitalized companies go out of business almost immediately. In order firm up their balance sheet AirTran has had to shed aircraft, furlough pilots, and ask for wage cuts. I'm not a financial analyst, therefore your guess is as good as mine on how long they can sustain losses.
3. As many have said, they just need to raise fairs! Unfortunately, I believe they won't be able to do this because they're competing against Delta. Delta smells the blood in the water and has the capitilization to out last AirTran.

Some additional info:
-From the WSJ: "Travelers could benefit from the ongoing face-off between Delta and AirTran over Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson airport.
The carriers have a longstanding rivalry over their big ATL hubs. And both also have said they need to cut capacity in order to better weather the historically high fuel prices slamming the industry. At the same time, the two airlines are loathe to cede routes to one another..." "AirTran regularly posts traffic growth rates in the teens, though it has been losing money of late. (In fact, earlier this summer, an analyst from UBS said the carrier was one of the most likely to suffer a cash shortage. )" “We saw particular strength in Florida and on the West Coast in a lot of the leisure destinations,” said AirTran spokesman Tad Hutcheson, who spoke with the Terminal this week...If fuel were what it was five years ago,” Hutcheson said. 'We’d be minting money.' Profitability doesn’t necessarily follow from impressive traffic growth. The company reported sizzling traffic for the first half of this year, meaning more people are flying on AirTran. But the airline still lost more than $48 million during that period. It’s usually a healthy sign when a carrier boosts traffic and demand, but if customers aren’t paying profitable ticket prices, the airline grows at a loss."

- Finally, a better poll might have been "would you buy AirTran stock at these levels?" The answer to this question may be a truer indication on how you feel AirTran will do over the long haul since you would be risking your hard earned dollars. In comparison, FedEx and UPS are probably great buys at these reduced levels.

Thanks for you inputs.

 

MidNightRider - as a former 717 driver at Citrus I share and understand your concern about the future of AirTran. I firmly believe though that AT will survive and even thrive when compared to their competition.
I'll only address two of your points - you said AT’s business model is built on low oil prices however I'd say low operating costs, oil being one of them, would be more correct.

It is true that the oil prices have gone through the roof but it affects all airlines (except SWA right now) so their competitiveness in that aspect hasn’t changed that much. All other operating costs remain lower than the competition which means they shouldn’t have any trouble competing in their markets.

As far as Delta - they definitely are trying to protect their main hub at all costs however I think the NWA and Delta merger and especially the next step of integration will cost them more money than they anticipated. I also think the new Delta will focus on international flying even more than current Delta which should create some breathing room for AT. At least that's my take on it.

Ps. Hope the furlough plans never materialize for you and other citrusites.

 

While I think Air Tran will survive I hope they can do something about customer service on the ground. I enjoy the in-flight portion of Air Tran, XM radio is a nice touch to keep me entertained for a little while and not charging for a Coke and snack in nice. Why no one else with a 737 can't put in overhead bins that big is beyond me? But as soon as you land or arrive at ATL you I am usually reminded why I haven't flown Air Tran in a while, the customer service in ATL is worse than non-reving on UA as an express employee. I will probably get flack for this but the language, attitude, and professionalism that too many of the Air Tran employees in ATL have is just sad. I have been a gate agent and taken several customer service courses and there is no reason for apparently no effort going into improving things. I also have a few words for their IT department, but I'll save it. Good luck to those of you furloughed.

 

Airtran has an opportunity to change its dynamic with a move into MKE.
It kind of avoids the issues with NWA and DAL and provides an opportunity for a second hub.

 

You hit the nail on the head. I'm always amazed that we can make any money with the way passengers are treated here in ATL. Maybe the company will try to move the bulk of operations to MKE. I'd be glad to come back after furlough if I knew I'd be pullling reserve in MKE vs ATL. Otherwise, I'm not sure I'll take the offer to come back if/when they recall us.

Stetson20