How many pilots are on the west side?

 

Best numbers I could find to use in a calculation comes up with 1737 West pilots. Since late August when the most recent West bid was published, there have been 40 West pilot recalls. That should bring us to 1638 "active" West pilots, with 99 West pilots on furlough.

So by my estimation, that would also give us 3388 East pilots on the list. By mid-November there will have been 55 East pilot recalls. That should break down to 3359 "active" East pilots, with 29 East pilots on furlough.

The furlough committee says that we will only have 125 pilots on furlough, instead of the 128 pilots (99+29) that I calculated above. I'm guessing that three of the furloughs have already indicated to the company that they will not be returning?

 

I know I'm new on this board so dont take this the wrong way. I think that by the time any of this happens that this airline will be merged again or out of business.

 

kinda hard to go out of business while making record profits

 

Spread the word. OPERATION ORANGE 2011 | Protecting the Flying Public & Restoring the Piloting Profession

 

You can forget merger. Another carrier would have to be psychotic to take this outfit as is. In addition to the retirement schedule add another 10-15% for psychiatric crack-ups on the East side.

 

Apparently that translates into 30% for the west. When will you try to think ahead instead of crying over your lost Nicolau Powerball list???

 

So, speaking of the future...
Has anyone figured out the date that west pilots + new hires > east pilots?

 

I assume by "new hires" you are refering to anyone with a hire date beyond the junior pre-merger East guy hired in August 2004 who is the last name on the Nicolau award?

Because there are the "new-hires" from 2007-2008 who are not really "new-hires" anymore, but yet as members of the third seniority list, they will be stapled in DOH order to the bottom of whatever single seniority list gets used for the pilots that were already on the property as of the Nicolau date.

There's also the furloughed west pilots to include in the calculation. As of right now those furloughed pilots do not have a vote in union matters, but when the west pilots slowly start to retire, their "vote" would then be replaced by another West pilot returning from furlough. All in all, the left side of the equation should remain stable and continue to grow, while the value on the right side of the equation would decrease as time goes on.

I think to expand on your equation a bit would be to ask when is the date that:

active original west pilots - west retirements + west furlough recalls + post 2007 hires > active original east pilots - east retirements

 

Does anyone have any recent numbers for US Air expected retirements? The FO rates are not good at all, but if the numbers for mandatory retirements equal up then things could change quickly.

My thoughts- If a merger is in the works then it could possibly work out to be a decent deal for future contracts.

Seems that when the top folks fall off, there should be more openness for contract/seniority reprieve.

Thoughts? Numbers?

Thanks!

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