The AirTran Pilots' Windfall and SLI
01-17-2011 | 06:55 PM
#362
On Reserve
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 14
Likes: 0
Zeroto4,
The delay for either group can't be proven because no one knows for sure what will happen at either company tomorrow or any time in the future. Both companies can embrace a growth mode at any time, and both can stop growth at any time. Both companies have aircraft orders on the books, but to say that either company wouldn't or couldn't stop or start growth based on any number of variables unrelated to aircraft orders is impossible. Aircraft orders can be deferred or sold instantly based on the "whims" of company leadership. Both groups can only argue what was happening at the time of the merger, but it is absolutely no indication of what will happen at any future instant. Airtran or Southwest could announce huge growth tomorrow just as easily as they could announce no growth. In my opinion, the only thing that is known for sure, based on the size of the combined pilot group is that it will take longer for both groups of FO's to upgrade, whether the company grows or not. That part is just simple math. Let's hope for the sake of both groups that the future holds positive signs for growth. I think it may be true given the synergy of the combined route structure and the fact that the Wright amendment is going away in the not to distant future. I don't kid myself though, it only takes a hiccup in the economy, a spike in gas prices, etc etc to bring it all to a screeching halt. Your assumption is that all SWA aircraft orders are "replacement" aircraft, but Gary Kelly could change that tomorrow by not retiring -300 aircraft (which he has hinted at more than a few times), or going out and leasing more airplanes, which he has done many times in the past. Only time will tell for the combined group.
Moose
The delay for either group can't be proven because no one knows for sure what will happen at either company tomorrow or any time in the future. Both companies can embrace a growth mode at any time, and both can stop growth at any time. Both companies have aircraft orders on the books, but to say that either company wouldn't or couldn't stop or start growth based on any number of variables unrelated to aircraft orders is impossible. Aircraft orders can be deferred or sold instantly based on the "whims" of company leadership. Both groups can only argue what was happening at the time of the merger, but it is absolutely no indication of what will happen at any future instant. Airtran or Southwest could announce huge growth tomorrow just as easily as they could announce no growth. In my opinion, the only thing that is known for sure, based on the size of the combined pilot group is that it will take longer for both groups of FO's to upgrade, whether the company grows or not. That part is just simple math. Let's hope for the sake of both groups that the future holds positive signs for growth. I think it may be true given the synergy of the combined route structure and the fact that the Wright amendment is going away in the not to distant future. I don't kid myself though, it only takes a hiccup in the economy, a spike in gas prices, etc etc to bring it all to a screeching halt. Your assumption is that all SWA aircraft orders are "replacement" aircraft, but Gary Kelly could change that tomorrow by not retiring -300 aircraft (which he has hinted at more than a few times), or going out and leasing more airplanes, which he has done many times in the past. Only time will tell for the combined group.
Moose
01-17-2011 | 06:57 PM
#363
No longer cares
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 12,109
Likes: 0
From: 767er Captain
I'm not saying that those FO's should immediately be made Captains at the expense of Air Tran guys at all sir. If you can't imagine that it would be tough yanking gear for someone that has six or seven years at their airline and gets to be a Captain at your airline before you, even though you've been there longer, then I'd say you aren't human. I'm not saying they won't do their job, I'm just saying the emotions associated with this scenario are natural. Even though you say that with relative seniority our guys lose nothing, that is not exactly correct. The larger the seniority list, the more aircraft it takes to generate movement on that seniority list, so even keeping the same relative seniority, senior FO's here will see the time to upgrade lengthen for every AT guy that comes in above them. Lets face facts. The FO's at both airlines have the most to lose because both groups will see their time to upgrade lengthened, not shortened by this SLI, no matter what. That is also why Captains at both airlines will do whatever it takes to hold onto their seats, and it exactly the reason why BOTH groups would have no problems taking Captain seats from the other.
01-17-2011 | 07:09 PM
#364
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 6,844
Likes: 0
From: 765-A
I guess the morons are out again so I'll have to make another post. SWA pilots expectations pre merger: make a good chunk of change. AAI pilots expectations pre merger: make a smaller chunk of change.
Too many pilots get hung up on seat and size. Without going to a size analogy, it's ridiculous to state that flying a big airplane is worth more if you're getting paid less.
If you equated the pay scales of each seniority list to the average pay for an airplane, the SWA pilots would fall into the 767/777 category. The AAI pilots would've fallen into the small narrow body category. Hence, SWA pilots are bring 5700 wide body seats to the merger in terms of pay--that's the bottom line.
Too many pilots get hung up on seat and size. Without going to a size analogy, it's ridiculous to state that flying a big airplane is worth more if you're getting paid less.
If you equated the pay scales of each seniority list to the average pay for an airplane, the SWA pilots would fall into the 767/777 category. The AAI pilots would've fallen into the small narrow body category. Hence, SWA pilots are bring 5700 wide body seats to the merger in terms of pay--that's the bottom line.
Your premise is so flawed, you are exposing yourself to be someone who is arguing emotions. Your reasoning is getting worse as we go along.
Simply put: Air Tran Seats become widebody seats, too.
No one care what the seats were worth BEFORE the merger. What are the seats going to be worth after the merger? Will the Air Tran green and white 737's & 717's CA and FO seats pay the same as the SWA brown and orange 737's? If they do pay different, how much? Enough to warrant an adjustment?
The bottom line is that those seats Air Tran brings to the merger magically become widebody seats as soon as you "merge."
As soon as you incorporate "past" anything, it's likely to be a losing point. Your arguments need to be focused on the future.
I mean like, is your entire list on the verge of massive upward movement because of growth or retirements? Explain.
My question still stands; how are you financially hurt by a straight relative seniority ratio list?
New K
01-17-2011 | 07:12 PM
#365
Line Holder
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 993
Likes: 0
From: VEOP Retired! 7ER A was last position
I guess the morons are out again so I'll have to make another post. SWA pilots expectations pre merger: make a good chunk of change. AAI pilots expectations pre merger: make a smaller chunk of change.
Too many pilots get hung up on seat and size. Without going to a size analogy, it's ridiculous to state that flying a big airplane is worth more if you're getting paid less.
If you equated the pay scales of each seniority list to the average pay for an airplane, the SWA pilots would fall into the 767/777 category. The AAI pilots would've fallen into the small narrow body category. Hence, SWA pilots are bring 5700 wide body seats to the merger in terms of pay--that's the bottom line.
Too many pilots get hung up on seat and size. Without going to a size analogy, it's ridiculous to state that flying a big airplane is worth more if you're getting paid less.
If you equated the pay scales of each seniority list to the average pay for an airplane, the SWA pilots would fall into the 767/777 category. The AAI pilots would've fallen into the small narrow body category. Hence, SWA pilots are bring 5700 wide body seats to the merger in terms of pay--that's the bottom line.
01-17-2011 | 07:33 PM
#367
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 190
Likes: 0
From: 737
Guess it's time for another post.
With that warped sense of expected outcomes, all mid level FOs should quit their jobs immediately to go work for Virgin America and pray for a merger in three years time.
As delerious as you think I am, I think all the more of your ilk. Pilots should be able to make rational decisions, not try to play career advancement lottery. Applying relative seniority with two seniority lists with such different career expectations is ludicrous. NWA/DAL went relative since the expectations were similar. US/AWA went relative (to a degree) since the arbitrator thought the carriers had similar career expectations. That one's been hell because the US pilots significantly disagreed with the arbitrator's assessment.
The next year or two will be interesting--but don't expect SWA pilots to lie down and beg for relative seniority. As they say in old westerns, "Them there are fighting words!"
With that warped sense of expected outcomes, all mid level FOs should quit their jobs immediately to go work for Virgin America and pray for a merger in three years time.
As delerious as you think I am, I think all the more of your ilk. Pilots should be able to make rational decisions, not try to play career advancement lottery. Applying relative seniority with two seniority lists with such different career expectations is ludicrous. NWA/DAL went relative since the expectations were similar. US/AWA went relative (to a degree) since the arbitrator thought the carriers had similar career expectations. That one's been hell because the US pilots significantly disagreed with the arbitrator's assessment.
The next year or two will be interesting--but don't expect SWA pilots to lie down and beg for relative seniority. As they say in old westerns, "Them there are fighting words!"
01-17-2011 | 07:42 PM
#369
No longer cares
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 12,109
Likes: 0
From: 767er Captain
Guess it's time for another post.
With that warped sense of expected outcomes, all mid level FOs should quit their jobs immediately to go work for Virgin America and pray for a merger in three years time.
As delerious as you think I am, I think all the more of your ilk. Pilots should be able to make rational decisions, not try to play career advancement lottery. Applying relative seniority with two seniority lists with such different career expectations is ludicrous. NWA/DAL went relative since the expectations were similar. US/AWA went relative (to a degree) since the arbitrator thought the carriers had similar career expectations. That one's been hell because the US pilots significantly disagreed with the arbitrator's assessment.
The next year or two will be interesting--but don't expect SWA pilots to lie down and beg for relative seniority. As they say in old westerns, "Them there are fighting words!"
With that warped sense of expected outcomes, all mid level FOs should quit their jobs immediately to go work for Virgin America and pray for a merger in three years time.
As delerious as you think I am, I think all the more of your ilk. Pilots should be able to make rational decisions, not try to play career advancement lottery. Applying relative seniority with two seniority lists with such different career expectations is ludicrous. NWA/DAL went relative since the expectations were similar. US/AWA went relative (to a degree) since the arbitrator thought the carriers had similar career expectations. That one's been hell because the US pilots significantly disagreed with the arbitrator's assessment.
The next year or two will be interesting--but don't expect SWA pilots to lie down and beg for relative seniority. As they say in old westerns, "Them there are fighting words!"
01-17-2011 | 07:49 PM
#370
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 6,844
Likes: 0
From: 765-A
Guess it's time for another post.
With that warped sense of expected outcomes, all mid level FOs should quit their jobs immediately to go work for Virgin America and pray for a merger in three years time.
As delerious as you think I am, I think all the more of your ilk. Pilots should be able to make rational decisions, not try to play career advancement lottery. Applying relative seniority with two seniority lists with such different career expectations is ludicrous. NWA/DAL went relative since the expectations were similar. US/AWA went relative (to a degree) since the arbitrator thought the carriers had similar career expectations. That one's been hell because the US pilots significantly disagreed with the arbitrator's assessment.
The next year or two will be interesting--but don't expect SWA pilots to lie down and beg for relative seniority. As they say in old westerns, "Them there are fighting words!"
With that warped sense of expected outcomes, all mid level FOs should quit their jobs immediately to go work for Virgin America and pray for a merger in three years time.
As delerious as you think I am, I think all the more of your ilk. Pilots should be able to make rational decisions, not try to play career advancement lottery. Applying relative seniority with two seniority lists with such different career expectations is ludicrous. NWA/DAL went relative since the expectations were similar. US/AWA went relative (to a degree) since the arbitrator thought the carriers had similar career expectations. That one's been hell because the US pilots significantly disagreed with the arbitrator's assessment.
The next year or two will be interesting--but don't expect SWA pilots to lie down and beg for relative seniority. As they say in old westerns, "Them there are fighting words!"
I get the feeling that this is going to be a hard pill for you to swallow, but to an arbitrator and the rest of the world, you are not a Southwest pilot, you are a 737 pilot.
Take the time to think about it.
With that in mind, how are you different from the Air Tran guys & gals?
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
Superpilot92
Mergers and Acquisitions
122
07-21-2008 07:42 PM
