Right now we are down to 1178 to be offered recall.

The acceptance rate varies. As we go deeper into the furloughs, the acceptance rate will continue going down - especially when we get to the 385 pilots that are below EVERYONE. Many of those guys are CAs at other airlines.

The Co's **UNOFFICIAL** (asterisks are emphasized) guesstimate is that, based on their estimate of the acceptance rate, we should be through all the recalls/AE FTs by some time next year, at which point they should begin hiring off the street. That is why the new VP of Flight was tasked with restarting up the new hire dep't in the near future.

That will be some serious rockstar seniority! I'm sure there will be some chief pilot's kids and interns in the class. More power to them- I'm just jealous it probably won't be me!

As the youngest guy on the property is around 35 or so and there are only a handful younger than 40, the token 23 year old in the first new hire class will be number 1 for at least 12-13 years. Not bad!

We've got guys at UPS who will have been capts at UPS for 40 years when they retire. Like someone said, it's all about timing.

They were captains at UPS at age 25? (25 yrs old + 40 years in CA seat per your statement = 65 mando retire).

Wow.

Almost exactly 1000 guys are less than 47 yrs old.
Just over 500 guys are under 44 yrs old.

Sweet deal for any young guys that get hired early in the cycle.

Retirement statistics for all the legacy carriers show approx. 50% of the current seniority lists retiring by the mid 2020's.

AA73,
"Right now we are down to 1178 to be offered recall." Quick question, my Y2010 List is the current on the AAPiolts site. 1178 does match? what list are you working off?

Hoping to be back soon!

Hi Vortexx, the info comes off of the APA Furlough Info page... # remaining not yet offered recall - 1178. Maybe your # is the total # on furlough? (including deferrals?)

The record I heard of is a 23 year old 727 AA Captain in the mid 1980s. Don't know if it is true.

Hired as an FO at 18 probably. Sorry, gonna have to throw the BS flag on this one.

Don't you have to be 25 to get an ATP?

23 is the Minimum age.

Yes and that token 23 year old gets to work with Grandpa and Grandma in the back. He will have a blast his first 10 years....

Agreed.

Even if a pilot like this was hired at 21, he'd have to upgrade in 2 years. I did however hear of a few AA captains in their early to mid 30's with good timing and luck, but that was many years ago.

I'm a junior F/O in the latter half of my 40's and have no idea when or if I'll ever make captain (although if I make it to 65, I'd think I would). I threw away my crystal ball for being too murky, so it will be what it will be and you play the hand you get the best you can.

There are a couple of CA's I know here that were hired at age 21, and made 727 CA at age 26. That's the earliest I've heard.

Right now our youngest CA is about 41 years old. Our youngest pilot systemwide is 35, I believe.

Who gives a flying **** about the youngest CA. All I care about is the current time to Captain and whether it's true the senior guys are starting to bail now.

In 1964 upgrade time was insanely fast. I think there was a guy that got hired at 21 and made captain at 23 or so..

And he's what? On the 777 out of LA? :D

Thanks for the update 73. The Union folks at Eagle said for June they got a 1/3 acceptance rate... but I talked to someone that just started in a flowthrough class and he said they had to call 175 to get the 25 folks. Any word on your side?

I think that's about right, not 100% sure... Sliceback knows more on this subject, as I'm sure he's aware...

Youngest I could find is 28 yr old upgrades for mid 1980 hires.

23 yrs old? Fat chance.

So APA is having a nation wide meeting at the beginning of June. Last Friday Eagle ALPA notified their members that the 824 preferential hire ruling by the arbitrator has an official objection submitted by American Airlines management and the APA. The reason for the objection has to do with a "what if scenario" of future merger or acquisition. I am not saying they are announcing a merger or an acquisition. I am just saying, what could the APA national meeting be about and why is there an objection to the 824 in regards to mergers and acquisitions. Interesting.

Gear Puller said "In 1964 upgrade time was insanely fast. I think there was a guy that got hired at 21 and made captain at 23 or so."

Gear Puller,

As a new flight engineer, the Captain I flew with told me of the time he was a new hire flight engineer on the 707 in the mid 60s. The Capt, Fo and he wanted to rent a car on a layover. They needed one of the flight attendants to rent the car, none of them was 25 years old and the car rental company would not rent them a car!

Congrats to all the recalls. Welcome Back!

Just heard another 25 recalls for July.

How senior is LA? Roughly how long to hold right seat of the 777?

Don't these latest 25 include many of the guys that took plowback to Eagle? That probably accounts for the higher acceptance rate in that class.

Mason... the initial 250 or so AE FTs are complete.... starting with June classes, it's all furloughed AA (ex TW) pilots. Congrats and welcome back!

Mason,

They are almost down to the bottom flowback. Not sure if he will be offered the first or second class in July. It looks to be close.

EXTW

Others probably have access to actual sen #s and hire dates, but a friend is a 777FO out of LAX, been with AA since '91, can still only hold reserve there.

So do we have a consensus on when hiring off the street might begin? assuming current pace? and has anyone factored in the AUG 1 FAA rules?

Latest I hear is that AA has called down to seniority number 9628 and they have yet to finish filling the first July class.

So there are 1540 still to be called?

Bail - not offered recall is just under 1200.
Still on the street(includes deferrals) 1800+.
250ish AE guys waiting to flow up.

So roughly 2100 potentials over the next 5 years or so. Of the 1500 furloughees yet offered recall and the final batch of flows, tough to say how many of those will actually make the move before it's necessary to bring in the first street hire.

I'll guess 500 out of that 1500 and the end of next summer to get there, but that's just my guess. There's some wildcards out there under the radar though.

Thanks for the info, sliceback

Heard AA is going to be recalling the the max number of pilots they can handle in August. Can anyone confirm or know what that number is?

Hopefully they do, AA pilots have suffered a long time

Beast - from the APA President today -

I have already received a verbal commitment that beginning in August, management will increase the pace of pilot recalls to the highest level that the airline’s training resources can accommodate.

Does this mean that they may be looking at hiring in the future (nearer not further)?

My heads starting to spin from the various numbers but here goes -

A guy has been making very accurate predictions on how far down the list each class will go. He also tracks the recall acceptance rate that actually requal at AA(ie, not MLOA, deferral, etc, etc).

Basic recall of his numbers is he expects 100(?) guys to accept recall and then there are 165(?) AE guys to come through.

He projected hiring next August if we stayed at recalling 25 per month.

If my recall of his projections is correct he's looking at approx. 250-300 guys before AA starts off the street hiring. If that's correct you can divide 250-300 by any increased recall rate and that will be the new estimated 'off the street' hiring date.

System wide union meeting June 8th. No whispers on what it's about so no predictions from me. However, negotiating email today said they believe the company is serious about getting a deal shortly. If true, and it comes to pass, and if the company has some sort of internal growth plan to fight UA/CO and DL/NW, who knows what 2012/2013, or beyond, will look like....however, I wouldn't hold my breath.