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Originally Posted by Sliceback
(Post 1002924)
My heads starting to spin from the various numbers but here goes -
A guy has been making very accurate predictions on how far down the list each class will go. He also tracks the recall acceptance rate that actually requal at AA(ie, not MLOA, deferral, etc, etc). Basic recall of his numbers is he expects 100(?) guys to accept recall and then there are 165(?) AE guys to come through. He projected hiring next August if we stayed at recalling 25 per month. If my recall of his projections is correct he's looking at approx. 250-300 guys before AA starts off the street hiring. If that's correct you can divide 250-300 by any increased recall rate and that will be the new estimated 'off the street' hiring date. System wide union meeting June 8th. No whispers on what it's about so no predictions from me. However, negotiating email today said they believe the company is serious about getting a deal shortly. If true, and it comes to pass, and if the company has some sort of internal growth plan to fight UA/CO and DL/NW, who knows what 2012/2013, or beyond, will look like....however, I wouldn't hold my breath. |
PBSG - that's a total of 250-300 bodies on the property before hiring starts. The guy doing the numbers crunching obviously has to make some assumptions, but he's been fairly accurate at his assumptions.
If his assumptions continue to stay fairly accurate to get the 100+ furloughee recalls will require going through the entire furlough list. After that the 165(?) AE flow-ups come(I think that's a 100% deal, ie they have to come), after which off the street hiring. The unknown is how many will AA recall per month? 50?(that's what they were doing this spring). 60? 70? Or less? If the projectioned assumptions of recall acceptance are correct 50 would clear the anticipated 250-300 guys in 5-6 months. 60 would be 4-5 months. 70 would be 4 months. If the economy stays anywhere near stable it looks like off the street hiring should start NLT than 2012. Hire until the furloughs start, furlough until the hiring starts... |
There are approximately 240 more Eagles with numbers (most at the very bottom of the list). They do not have to accept transfer, and they get no renumeration like the 215 that just finished arriving, so I suspect only 100 or so probably will choose to go (these are guys with over 15yrs at Eagle, all fairly senior captains at/near 6 figures with good schedules). Then Eagle is supposed to get 1 of every 2 newhire positions (up to 824 more Eagles) when off the street begins.
This is great news, though a verbal committment is hardly binding. Hopefully it holds true at 50+/mo and we'll see street hiring within a year at AA. |
Originally Posted by EMBFlyer
(Post 1002902)
Does this mean that they may be looking at hiring in the future (nearer not further)?
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Originally Posted by Oldfreightdawg
(Post 1003163)
The managing director of flight said to me last week that the company is preparing for new hires sometime late this year or early next year. The exact timing will depend on the number of returning recalled pilots and pilots who elect to cancel their deferrals. The 1st July recall class had #9636 called. They started the first June class with #9567, so one may deduce that at this point in time the recall acceptance rate is slightly less than 1 in 3. With an accelerated recall rate starting in August and with about 1000 pilots left to be called, I have to guess that new hires will be here next summer.
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Originally Posted by swaayze
(Post 1003162)
This is great news, though a verbal committment is hardly binding. Hopefully it holds true at 50+/mo and we'll see street hiring within a year at AA.
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Originally Posted by Sliceback
(Post 1003562)
50/month was earlier this year. June/July have been 25 per month.
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ran into an AA captain yesterday who told me he heard "rumor" of 200 airbus narrow body's and 30 777-300's being ordered in the near future... fiction? or
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We are all hearing those rumors. The 773 rumor is pretty valid - so far we are up to 6 and it seems like AMR orders another one every 2 months or so - trickle orders. I foresee a fleet of at least 20 773s.
The Airbus rumor is gaining traction - I've heard from several folks in high places that a new fleet is coming. I've even heard of an "airine within AMR" domestic only using A319s/20s/21s. The next few months will be very interesting. Contract should be wrapped up by the end of the year. They are gearing up for new hires by next year at the latest. |
Originally Posted by aa73
(Post 1004073)
We are all hearing those rumors. The 773 rumor is pretty valid - so far we are up to 6 and it seems like AMR orders another one every 2 months or so - trickle orders. I foresee a fleet of at least 20 773s.
The Airbus rumor is gaining traction - I've heard from several folks in high places that a new fleet is coming. I've even heard of an "airine within AMR" domestic only using A319s/20s/21s. The next few months will be very interesting. Contract should be wrapped up by the end of the year. They are gearing up for new hires by next year at the latest. |
Originally Posted by aa73
(Post 1004073)
We are all hearing those rumors. The 773 rumor is pretty valid - so far we are up to 6 and it seems like AMR orders another one every 2 months or so - trickle orders. I foresee a fleet of at least 20 773s.
The Airbus rumor is gaining traction - I've heard from several folks in high places that a new fleet is coming. I've even heard of an "airine within AMR" domestic only using A319s/20s/21s. The next few months will be very interesting. Contract should be wrapped up by the end of the year. They are gearing up for new hires by next year at the latest. |
I'm not sure Flyby... but I do know that if there's a way around ANY kind of contract, AMR can usually find it. ;)
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Originally Posted by aa73
(Post 1004141)
I'm not sure Flyby... but I do know that if there's a way around ANY kind of contract, AMR can usually find it. ;)
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Airline within an airline? I hope not. Delta Shuttle and Shuttle by United were such screaming successes last decade - not. Sort of like Hollywood, can't come up with anything original, so let's try a sequel...
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I don't quite believe the airline within an airline rumor. I do believe we'll be seeing a big order for 100-120 seaters very soon.
On another note, AA has just confirmed two August classes with no end in sight. They are also bumping up the recalls from 30 to 35/month. Our recall gurus have indicated that the bypass rate now is around 15%, so they are anticipating burning through the rest of the furloughees in about 5-6 months. They have called through seniority #9674. The momentum is picking up.... hopefully our (industry leading!) contract is coming soon, in time for the first new hires. |
Keep hearing rumors of some deal with jetBlue to be announced. Anyone hear something similar?
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Originally Posted by Diesel1030
(Post 1004537)
Keep hearing rumors of some deal with jetBlue to be announced. Anyone hear something similar?
Whether the 195's would go to AA mainline or JB is the wildcard. Those aircraft (in whomever's hands) would take a lot of the former AA flying that Eagle is now doing with the smaller (and economically dead) Embraer's. If AMR and the APA are really as cozy as the claims, then I'd think those aircraft would go to AA and the Jet Blue operation would either be folded into AA or operated as a single pilot seniority list (AKA "airline within an airline"). Let's see if the very near future has any bombshells. |
Originally Posted by aa73
(Post 1004530)
I don't quite believe the airline within an airline rumor. I do believe we'll be seeing a big order for 100-120 seaters very soon.
On another note, AA has just confirmed two August classes with no end in sight. They are also bumping up the recalls from 30 to 35/month. Our recall gurus have indicated that the bypass rate now is around 15%, so they are anticipating burning through the rest of the furloughees in about 5-6 months. They have called through seniority #9674. The momentum is picking up.... hopefully our (industry leading!) contract is coming soon, in time for the first new hires. |
Tone - only 15% are accepting recall.
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Originally Posted by aa73
(Post 1004573)
Tone - only 15% are accepting recall.
Thanks. And Wow! |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 1004541)
That's been going on for sometime now. The only viable economic aircraft for the near future in the seat range AA wants is the Embraer 195. My guess is an acquisition/merger with Jet Blue and an E-195 order by AMR.
Whether the 195's would go to AA mainline or JB is the wildcard. Those aircraft (in whomever's hands) would take a lot of the former AA flying that Eagle is now doing with the smaller (and economically dead) Embraer's. If AMR and the APA are really as cozy as the claims, then I'd think those aircraft would go to AA and the Jet Blue operation would either be folded into AA or operated as a single pilot seniority list (AKA "airline within an airline"). Let's see if the very near future has any bombshells. |
Originally Posted by aa73
(Post 1004573)
Tone - only 15% are accepting recall.
Unless a furloughee absolutely, positively needs the job, I'd coast elsewhere until as big a cushion under me was possible and a better reserve system (and staffing) was in place. |
Hi, long time reader first time poster.
-I just have to add my 2 cents about a possible B6 buyout (that what it would be!!) I will not say it not happen, but it will not happen right now. Here are my arguments for why it will not happen: 1) To many slots will have to be divested. B6 has around 150 slots and I could see AMR having to give up as much as 30% of those slots. Especially the ones that serve NY cities. 2) No widebody aircraft, as it is if AA wants to start a new international route they have to stop one that is currently being flown. AKA ORD-FRA, until AA gets a few extra widebodies it not be cost effective. 3) Speaking of costs, the second AMR buys B6 and cost advantage B6 has in any market goes right out the door. -Thanks for reading |
Originally Posted by Flavio340
(Post 1004619)
Hi, long time reader first time poster.
-I just have to add my 2 cents about a possible B6 buyout (that what it would be!!) I will not say it not happen, but it will not happen right now. Here are my arguments for why it will not happen: 1) To many slots will have to be divested. B6 has around 150 slots and I could see AMR having to give up as much as 30% of those slots. Especially the ones that serve NY cities. 2) No widebody aircraft, as it is if AA wants to start a new international route they have to stop one that is currently being flown. AKA ORD-FRA, until AA gets a few extra widebodies it not be cost effective. 3) Speaking of costs, the second AMR buys B6 and cost advantage B6 has in any market goes right out the door. -Thanks for reading If AMR were concerned another suitor would acquire JB for strategic reasons (including hamstringing AA), they may be forced to make a defensive move. At any rate, would AA have to give up slots if AMR were to purchase JB outright or a controlling stake with future options if JB were to remain a seperate carrier for now ? How many slots does DL have at JFK vs. AA with and without a JB inclusion ? Wouldn't surprise me to see an AA order for E-195's first, primarily ro replace AA S-80 and Eagle ERJ flying (who know's.......maybe this week ?) and then a formal move on JB. |
Originally Posted by 450knotOffice
(Post 1003986)
True. However, AA has said that they will be picking up the recall rate to the highest rate they can manage, which should be at least 50/month. Could be more. From what I am hearing, AA is critically understaffed right now.
Three months from now we'll have the answer as to what AA's recall capacity really is. |
It is also interesting to note that DAL will have over 51% of LGA slots if their slot swap passes (seems like the DOT will allow it now). I wonder what % of JFK slots a combined AA+JB would have? I'd guess not much more than 50%.
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Originally Posted by Flyby1206
(Post 1004702)
It is also interesting to note that DAL will have over 51% of LGA slots if their slot swap passes (seems like the DOT will allow it now). I wonder what % of JFK slots a combined AA+JB would have? I'd guess not much more than 50%.
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Originally Posted by tone
(Post 1004726)
I may be wrong but I was under the impression that JetBlue already has 50% of JFK ALONE! Anyone have an exact figure?
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What I dont get with AMR, is they need a solution to this scope stuff, and Eagle. It seems easy to me that both sides just give up a little, and that would be to get 100 seat jets and put them on the AA side with AA pilots, and for each 100 seat, Eagle gets a 70 seat. It seems to be the only win/win, but I guess that might be too logical.
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Rumor on the street is that american has already worked out a deal to buy these...
http://rpmedia.ask.com/ts?u=/wikiped..._CSeries-1.jpg And in the mean time fly these to replace some of the 80s....Americans plan is to divest eagle and make it an all ATR's/ERJ fleet...Getting around scope by moving the 700's to AA....Its still just a rumor http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3597/...71ef0140e3.jpg |
Hearing from my AA contacts that they are setting up to recall everyone. Hope it's true
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ya thats it, AA will have all flying over 50 seats by mainline pilots, I can see that, 2012 1billion loss. They will have a business model extremely different from UAL/DAL.
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al65 - 30-35 recalls a month eff. August. No planned stop to recalls.
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Originally Posted by rickt86
(Post 1004838)
ya thats it, AA will have all flying over 50 seats by mainline pilots, I can see that, 2012 1billion loss. They will have a business model extremely different from UAL/DAL.
Within five years, regionals should return to what they are designed to do - fly fuel efficient turboprops over short distances to add to mainline load factors. |
Originally Posted by rickt86
(Post 1004806)
What I dont get with AMR, is they need a solution to this scope stuff, and Eagle. It seems easy to me that both sides just give up a little, and that would be to get 100 seat jets and put them on the AA side with AA pilots, and for each 100 seat, Eagle gets a 70 seat. It seems to be the only win/win, but I guess that might be too logical.
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not at all, and SKYW lost money because they purchased other airlines. But I mean seriously, do you think AMR has any plan to put all the crj700 and all new airplanes on AA with AA pilots/FA/MX/Gate Agents ETC, I mean come on seriously? While United/DAL have TONS of CRJ700/900 doing their domestic flying. I am not saying I want it that way, I would love to see all jet flying go mainline, but AMR with their loses is trying to be outsource flying, not bring the CRJ700 to AA.
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Just a quick question: Not to put a damper on all the off the street hiring we expect but with no capacity added, and with only trickle retirements wouldn't that make them only a couple hundred pilots short? So theoretically, they may not even make it to the bottom of the list this time around even with only 1 out of 6 coming back. Just wondering if anyone has heard a hard number of how many pilots they need to get on line??
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tone - no number on how many warm bodies they need. Guessing some of the manning bump is for the upcoming duty hours being changed by the FAA/Congress.
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Originally Posted by Sliceback
(Post 1003562)
50/month was earlier this year. June/July have been 25 per month.
In 90 days we'll have perfect 20/20 lookback clarity. |
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