Overlap is minimal. Considering the two competing networks and the long-term survival requirements of at least U, the merger would be pretty greasy without many roadblocks.

Furloughs ?

A wildcard there. That's one area Parker needs to address, of course. The AMR plan has Eagle and code-shares dissolving most of AA domestic, so as it is long-term employment, let alone advancement appear bleak. If Parker's plan invests in the MAINLINE as the primary product as opposed to building up ancillary operations like other airlines or regionals/feeders that would be a big selling point. The last decade AA has dwindled while Eagle has blossomed and the term sheet reads like not only more of the same, but that concept going viral.

 

Why? He has widebody international captains working for peanuts. And besides, the ensuing seniority fight with an AA/U merger is gonna be epic. I'm thinking Braveheart style.

 

I'm pretty sure it's the Creditor's Committee that is in charge now...not Horton or Parker. They will each make a 'pitch' to the CC, but in the end, it's the Creditors who decide what's best for them, ie. will make THEM the most money.

When DWI Dougie tried to buy DAL in CH11, DALPA made the pitch to the CC that it would NOT be a good thing...for THEM, money wise, going forward. Is the APA going to make a similar pitch to their CC?

 

A small group of widebody captains is peanuts in the scheme of things. As far as the seniority merger, you've got McCaskill-Bond and the NMB. The two carriers are all but certain to merge. Even Horton is open to AA merging and is on record about that. It's all about timing and $$$........and WHO gets the $$$.

I think all should resign themselves to this eventually happening. If it's going to happen, AA pilots may well get a better deal with Parker's timeline than AMR's. I think for the first time in a decade, AA pilots should get the best deal for themselves, instead of funding another executive compensation scheme out of their own pockets.

 

I think he lost out on Delta by one vote, but had turned his back on their labor. Delta pilots didn't have anywhere near the history that AA pilots have endured over the last 10 years. Reading the tea leaves now, AMR doesn't have many fans anywhere and I think Parker needs only one more ingredient added to this nasty stew to become the NEW chef.......and that's imposition of draconian bottom-of-the-industry term sheets.

The kitchen doors will then open shortly thereafter for a humdinger of a cook-off.

 

I don't know about that. I think that if a merger is going to happen our fight will be over. We then go into MB, and as someone else said there will be nothing we can do about it. I think everyone has learned from our screw up.

Cactiboss- I understand why you guys filled Addington, if I was over there I'm sure I would have agreed. But, it has delayed things. Judge Wake would have done us a favor had he ruled it was not ripe. I think the company picked up on this and that's why the filed the DJ, to delay and keep their costs down. Look at what their lawyer is now saying. Why not tell USAPA that instead of going to court? I could be wrong, but I've always felt that they knew they would not agree to changing the award and have just playing us.

C1-Our managers say you are wrong about part of what you are saying about the merger. The east coast system is more expensive, but with the expense comes great revenue. By merging with US, AWA gained access to the funding, paid off the ATSB, expanded their route network and avoided Ch 11. Had they let US go, they couldn't have done that, they did not have the money to benefit from it. Parker and Kirby have explained this over and over but you guys just don't want to believe it. CLT is the most profitable, DCA has the best margin, then PHL, then PHX. I had a chat with another manager in '08 and he said that AWA would have never survived the run up in fuel with it's network. Parker has said the model no longer worked and that the other majors getting their costs down was the death knell for AWA.

One problem(for labor) that I see is the overlap. People say there isn't much overlap, but when you look at city pairs there is. I believe the end product would be smaller than the two now, and that's where the fight comes in with pilots.

 

If there is a complete merger, you could be right. If AA is fragmented, see SWAPA vs AT. Bond McCaskill has no teeth anymore.

And you can bet that DAL/UAL are not going to sit idly by and watch Dougie scoop up AMR lock stock and barrel without a bidding war either...

 

Yes, fragmentation is one of the risks. It's why I say that once we get to a certain point, NO ONE may be in the definative driver's seat and AMR probably won't regain that position, once it's lost. It's questionable as is.

The term, "playing with fire" comes to mind, where one minute it appears that everything is under control and the next instant the player gets badly burned. Personally, I hope they know what they're doing as I'd prefer AA to be a stand alone competitor with a unified management and work force, but considering the strategic and tactical decisions of the last decade and the recent decisions and claims so far in the C11 period, I have grave doubts. I simply cannot connect the dots of destroying your workers to the degree they desire to and building something competitive out of that wreckage or inspiring them in any form or fashion. It's very possible that things here will become so intolerable that fragmentation for all its destruction may be seen as a blessing.

I think this is the calm before the storm. Although the forcast has ominous tones, the storm track hasn't been defined yet, but I think every pilot in the bottom half of the AA list would be wise to consider a distinct possibility of being unemployed within 12-24 months and actively plan for that. If AMR loses their tenuous control and the wolves start tearing at the carcass, many of the fleas know they will be casulaties if they stay in the fur and will likely flee before any orderly transition of assets on their own timeline. Considering the likelyhood of many not being offered employement in a fragmentation shredder, I think many will take what they have and move on and perhaps too early in the interest of others.

This whole situation will have to be played flawlessly by people with anything but that track record, otherwise this could go south much quicker then many believe. Obviously, I'm very pessimistic about the current plan for success and feel it to be nothing more then a repeat of the lessons that should have been learned over the last decade, but weren't.

That's my opinion, anyway.

 

I think what he said was that of all the hubs DCA and CLT were among the top 5 in margin - DCA was #2 CLT was #5, PHL and PHX were in the "middle of the pack."

Having the best margin is not the same as most profitable....CLT costs are rock-bottom but there's virtually no local traffic..almost no O & D at all. You could just as easily move that hub to RDU or BNA and keeping the same low costs you would have a high-margin hub. "Most profitable?" I haven't seen data on total profit by hub but in the case of CLT I seriously doubt it. In the case of a AMR/LCC merge I would have serious doubts about CLT surviving the cut.

 

Of course they have, but who is the stupid ones then?