Airline Pilot Central Forums

Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)
-   Major (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/)
-   -   What will it Take? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/68558-what-will-take.html)

acl65pilot 07-02-2012 05:25 AM


Originally Posted by forgot to bid (Post 1223151)
Even DALPA saying the end 1.56 ratio will result in 40 aircraft of growth is saying the 717s are not all growth.

The one thing we forgot to put in the contract was the requirement for growth before 76 seaters. We are left hoping that happens but the ratio doesn't require it. You can have 0 mainline growth and get away with the 1.56 ratio with DCI 450/325. What we've done is guaranteed us a percentage of the flying but gave them the option to shrink consolidated ASMs (like dropping DCI to 450 airframes) without transferring flying to us along the way.

The key is once you his DCI 450/325 and say we do start to grow then the growth will eventually come to us. But it doesn't have to right away, they could probably squeeze a lot more BH per DCI aircraft than they have right now but eventually you hit a point that's infeasible. But I'll bet there is room to grow in BH average per airframe for them.

Just think if we bough HAA and all of those 717's arrive, with pilots :eek:

Those will count towards the 717's delivered and the allowable 76 seat aircraft count. If not I sure cannot find it anywhere in the PWA; no longer TA :D

forgot to bid 07-02-2012 05:33 AM


Originally Posted by acl65pilot (Post 1223163)
Just think if we bough HAA and all of those 717's arrive, with pilots :eek:

Those will count towards the 717's delivered and the allowable 76 seat aircraft count. If not I sure cannot find it anywhere in the PWA; no longer TA :D

Oh boy, I liked using PWA vs TA. So now it's C2008 vs C2012? Or PWA08 vs PWA 12?

Boomer 07-02-2012 05:40 AM


Originally Posted by forgot to bid (Post 1223151)
they could probably squeeze a lot more BH per DCI aircraft than they have right now but eventually you hit a point that's infeasible. But I'll bet there is room to grow in BH average per airframe for them.

There is plenty of room to get more BH per airframe. When DCI was Comair in CVG, ASA in ATL, and SKW in SLC, the aircraft were very efficient. I don't know the ASA/SKW numbers, but Comair aircraft were seeing utilization rates of 12-13 hours per day, flying from 5am to 11pm with 25-30 minute turns across the board.

Now, with 9 DCI carriers and every one of them getting a chunk of every city pair, the utilization is crummy - around 6 hours per day. We fly to an outstation and sit for 4.5 hours, or park an airplane at 10am and it's done for the day because all the later flights are other DCIs.

So if Delta put a smart feller in charge of DCI routes, there could be a lot of efficiencies worked out to increase BH with those 76 seaters.

forgot to bid 07-02-2012 05:45 AM

HAL would be an interesting add wouldn't it?

18 B717s to complement the 88 B717s we already will have plus that extra 24 B717s that have been mentioned. Add it all together and that's 130 B717s. Goes along way towards the Board's rumored 2010 goal of owning all of the B717s and 90s.

Then add their 330s, 763ERs, 763s, the HND slot, Asia traffic and you don't have to mess up the good thing you got going with Alaska.

Question is, I don't believe they have outsourced regional service so that's a whole lot of mainline aircraft without increasing the regional service like we would with say an Alaska merger.

Hope that 1.56 ratio goes up with that, otherwise we could hit a 1.9 ratio and not see anything change except that they can start squeezing more segments per given block hour out of those M.80 cruising CR9s.

It's too bad that ratio in the TA... PWA... wasn't 1.87 or higher, then say hello to the B717 all growth jets!

forgot to bid 07-02-2012 06:02 AM


Originally Posted by Boomer (Post 1223178)
There is plenty of room to get more BH per airframe. When DCI was Comair in CVG, ASA in ATL, and SKW in SLC, the aircraft were very efficient. I don't know the ASA/SKW numbers, but Comair aircraft were seeing utilization rates of 12-13 hours per day, flying from 5am to 11pm with 25-30 minute turns across the board.

Now, with 9 DCI carriers and every one of them getting a chunk of every city pair, the utilization is crummy - around 6 hours per day. We fly to an outstation and sit for 4.5 hours, or park an airplane at 10am and it's done for the day because all the later flights are other DCIs.

So if Delta put a smart feller in charge of DCI routes, there could be a lot of efficiencies worked out to increase BH with those 76 seaters.

Alfa's math question way back when that said 3.6M consolidated block hours and we have 53.9%, and given a fleet of about 560+ mainline jets and 600+ regional jets, you'd come up with a number of around 3,400 hours per mainline jet and 2,800 per regional jet. Rounded.

Which makes sense given stage lengths and the not so limiting cap of 900sm range of the regional jet size vs counting mainline aircraft doing transcons and 757s crossing the Atlantic... kind of sucks we counted those.

So that puts DCI flying about 7.6-7.7 hours on their jets on average. It's not uncommon to hear Flagship and so forth cruising at M.80, which I doubt is in the case on the CR2. So given the jumbo RJ percentage of the DCI fleet is about to rise from 43% to 72%, I think there is a lot of ways to play these numbers and squeeze more segments out of fewer hours than is possible now.

Free Bird 07-02-2012 06:07 AM


Originally Posted by Denny Crane (Post 1221863)
My question is for the no voters. "What needs to happen within the duration of this new contract for you to possibly say........maybe the yes voters were right?" Is there a number the seniority list needs to grow to? Is there a average monthly reserve hours flown that we would need to be below? Or is there nothing that can happen...

I'm just wondering what it will take happening over the next 3 years to maybe change your minds......

Denny

I would need to see 2 things happen to concede the TA was good for us as a group. The first is that in 1 - 1.5 years from now we have more pilots on property than we do today. The second, is that our quality of life doesn't suffer anymore than it already has. The ALV increase along with the new reserve issue has me concerned.

Bottom line is we will need more pilots without working more days a month. If that happens then I will change my mind.

Btw, more pilots as a result of a merger does not count.

forgot to bid 07-02-2012 06:12 AM


Originally Posted by Free Bird (Post 1223193)
I would need to see 2 things happen to concede the TA was good for us as a group. The first is that in 1 - 1.5 years from now we have more pilots on property than we do today. The second, is that our quality of life doesn't suffer anymore than it already has. The ALV increase along with the new reserve issue has me concerned.

Bottom line is we will need more pilots without working more days a month. If that happens then I will change my mind.

Btw, more pilots as a result of a merger does not count.

Of course there will always be the nagging question of whether we could have added more pilots to whatever we add, if not for work rule changes.

And the other nagging question will be if the additional pilots from the 717s would've come anyways or did GK really sign off on a deal that said he'd keep the 717s if the Delta pilots vote down the first offer even if by just 1 vote.

acl65pilot 07-02-2012 06:55 AM

As I said during the TA debate; It is going to be very difficult to judge the Scope section of this TA in 2015. We will have one measurement period for DCI and will be in the final stages of the 76 seat and 717 build up. We will probably add Virgins Atlantic and Australia to the JV world and this PWA covers the 37.5% to add Atlantic to the AF JV and the revenue sharing add on protects us from the Australia add. Not sure if we will see anything with RJET by then, but we might. We may be knee deep in some sort of weird JV pro rate deal with JAL or KAL and that will be a true test.

The test with DCI will come post openers or even after 2015 unless we are still in a flat or worsening economy. My concerns with the non-compliance language may be fixed and I would be a very happy man. If the ratios had a back stop on the top tier and then a two year rolling actual ratio average within .06 that would be better.

Point is the next three years are not going to be a good judge of much of section 1. It is the "and beyond" years if we do not tighten the language going forward that will be the real test.

The work rules will get a good test, and if we have a SLI we will see how work efficiencies come in to play in the SLI debate and or arbitration.

dalad 07-02-2012 07:25 AM


Originally Posted by acl65pilot (Post 1223163)
Just think if we bough HAA and all of those 717's arrive, with pilots :eek:

Those will count towards the 717's delivered and the allowable 76 seat aircraft count. If not I sure cannot find it anywhere in the PWA; no longer TA :D

Only 500+ pilots with lots of 330's, 350's, on order. Is it true that the junior 330A is a 2000 hire?

acl65pilot 07-02-2012 07:27 AM


Originally Posted by dalad (Post 1223245)
Only 500+ pilots with lots of 330's, 350's, on order. Is it true that the junior 330A is a 2000 hire?

Very very close. I do not have their most current award but it was close prior to that one.


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 03:39 AM.


Website Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands