"Pilot Shortage" - well ?
08-22-2014, 03:05 AM
#51
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Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Capt
Posts: 3,215
The pilot shortage is already affecting me. I have had several AA/UAL flights cancelled due to lack of crews, and had to get rebooked (we have our own travel dept-they use sabre) on delta, so aa/ual lost revenue.
If the majors bring all flying in house, or they do a 100% flow thru, that will only help in the short run. There are not enough new pilot starts to supply the pilots for all the planes in the US down the road. The majors will have to do something to entice more civilians to start flt training.
AND then there's the ever-increasing demand from Asia that the majors will have to deal with.
If the majors bring all flying in house, or they do a 100% flow thru, that will only help in the short run. There are not enough new pilot starts to supply the pilots for all the planes in the US down the road. The majors will have to do something to entice more civilians to start flt training.
AND then there's the ever-increasing demand from Asia that the majors will have to deal with.
08-22-2014, 05:38 AM
#52
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 2,539
Originally Posted by Reservist
Kinda sick of hearing there will "never" be a shortage at the majors.
Only the regionals huh?
Isn't that "regional" flying needed by the majors? You think they'll sit idly by while routes and aircraft go unstaffed? And They're unable to get passengers into hubs to get on international "mainline" flights.
All the flying is eventually going back in house, the first ones to do so will be able to staff their network, the ones that don't or are slowest are going to have EMB 170s and CRJ 900s sitting on a ramp somewhere with no one to fly them. Call it what you want.
Only the regionals huh?
Isn't that "regional" flying needed by the majors? You think they'll sit idly by while routes and aircraft go unstaffed? And They're unable to get passengers into hubs to get on international "mainline" flights.
All the flying is eventually going back in house, the first ones to do so will be able to staff their network, the ones that don't or are slowest are going to have EMB 170s and CRJ 900s sitting on a ramp somewhere with no one to fly them. Call it what you want.
A shadow-supply of licensed but currently inactive commercial pilots may mitigate some of the wage pressure at the regional level, but the gap between current starting pilot wages today and what is necessary may be as high as 2X
The "shortage" won't affect mainlines for quite some time. Brands are shrinking their "regional" footprints. UAL has announced 131 aircraft are coming out of ExpressJet by the end of 2015 with only 70 backfills for the system. Delta will shrink from 638 DCI in 2012 to 425 at the end of 2015. Some of the capacity is going to mainline, but many of the pilot block hours (jobs) are going away.
So no, not all the "regional" flying is needed or wanted by the brands. Pay increases at the regionals will enable them to recruit new pilots or get ones that have left the profession to return. It will also make them less cost effective for their mainline partners. And there are way more current regional pilots that want mainline jobs than there are mainline jobs projected to be available this decade.
08-22-2014, 05:53 AM
#53
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Joined APC: Oct 2013
Posts: 292
Originally Posted by scottm
This is a process, and not a fast one. The current status as I see it:
The U.S. is producing new pilots for domestic consumption at a negligible rate. Embry Riddle and Flight Safety International are over 90% foreign pilots with commitments overseas. They have money and buy luxury apartments while in training, so they have U.S. addresses on their licenses, and the FAA reports they are licensing U.S. residents, but they aren't going to U.S. airlines. U.S. schools will be graduating only a hundreds of American commercial pilots every year for many years, based on current enrollment.
Young Americans are not entering flight training, they consider the career undesirable, and doomed to obsolescence due to automation and technology. The FAA recently released a statement that this would not happen soon, which came across as assuring young people it would happen, probably later during their peak earning years. There will not be a surge of new American pilots, or a surge of foreign pilots taking pay cuts to come here.
U.S. major airlines are hiring 4000+ pilots per year (Boeing forecasts 4,500/yr), mostly from the regionals. That number is supposed to be going up according to the airlines. The regionals have around 16,000-18,000 pilots, it won't take long for this hiring to decimate them, and the U.S. domestic airline networks they fly the majority of.
Regional airlines are in a shortage, are cutting routes and parking airplanes due to lack of pilots.
U.S. business aviation has over 13,000 jets on order. Their pilots have been stagnated as long as the majors, they are approaching normal retirement age. They will need a lot of pilots, especially if they see scheduled airline service cut back in this country. Some estimates (NBAA and Bureau of Labor Statistics) show business aviation hiring more pilots than the airlines over the next ten years. Maybe not, but it will be significant.
All of this is before the industry sees over half the commercial pilots in the U.S. retire in one decade, and a surge in demand with the economic recovery.
So the question is not "will it happen", it is already happening, but how painful will it be and who will win and who will lose?
The U.S. is producing new pilots for domestic consumption at a negligible rate. Embry Riddle and Flight Safety International are over 90% foreign pilots with commitments overseas. They have money and buy luxury apartments while in training, so they have U.S. addresses on their licenses, and the FAA reports they are licensing U.S. residents, but they aren't going to U.S. airlines. U.S. schools will be graduating only a hundreds of American commercial pilots every year for many years, based on current enrollment.
Young Americans are not entering flight training, they consider the career undesirable, and doomed to obsolescence due to automation and technology. The FAA recently released a statement that this would not happen soon, which came across as assuring young people it would happen, probably later during their peak earning years. There will not be a surge of new American pilots, or a surge of foreign pilots taking pay cuts to come here.
U.S. major airlines are hiring 4000+ pilots per year (Boeing forecasts 4,500/yr), mostly from the regionals. That number is supposed to be going up according to the airlines. The regionals have around 16,000-18,000 pilots, it won't take long for this hiring to decimate them, and the U.S. domestic airline networks they fly the majority of.
Regional airlines are in a shortage, are cutting routes and parking airplanes due to lack of pilots.
U.S. business aviation has over 13,000 jets on order. Their pilots have been stagnated as long as the majors, they are approaching normal retirement age. They will need a lot of pilots, especially if they see scheduled airline service cut back in this country. Some estimates (NBAA and Bureau of Labor Statistics) show business aviation hiring more pilots than the airlines over the next ten years. Maybe not, but it will be significant.
All of this is before the industry sees over half the commercial pilots in the U.S. retire in one decade, and a surge in demand with the economic recovery.
So the question is not "will it happen", it is already happening, but how painful will it be and who will win and who will lose?
08-22-2014, 06:47 AM
#54
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Joined APC: Jul 2005
Position: Left Seat
Posts: 2,384
[QUOTE=sailingfun;1710021]
what does that mean ? 5000 dudes ? what % of the pilot workforce is making those numbers. And what are they exchanging in return. I bet they are humping to make these numbers, unless it is some 64.9 year old dude #3 on the seniority list.
Originally Posted by scottm
$400k/yr for five years? Not in this country, not even including 401k and occasional overtime. And especially not for the large number who will never make widebody captain, or will only make it as junior on reserve at a base far from home and family.
A significant number of pilots at Delta break 400k counting the DC plan. I just flew with a 767 FO who broke 300k not counting the DC plan.
A significant number of pilots at Delta break 400k counting the DC plan. I just flew with a 767 FO who broke 300k not counting the DC plan.
08-22-2014, 06:58 AM
#55
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Originally Posted by scottm
$400k/yr for five years? Not in this country, not even including 401k and occasional overtime.
08-22-2014, 07:03 AM
#56
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Posts: 6,929
Originally Posted by Viperstick
A 737 captain in my crash pad made $48k in July & already had 130 hours credit for August as of 9 August. Not saying this will keep up for five years, but for those in low density, high demand positions, there's a lot of coin to be made.
(Not directed at you Viperstick)
08-22-2014, 08:05 AM
#58
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Position: Ca B737
Posts: 2,762
[QUOTE=satpak77;1710142]
what does that mean ? 5000 dudes ? what % of the pilot workforce is making those numbers. And what are they exchanging in return. I bet they are humping to make these numbers, unless it is some 64.9 year old dude #3 on the seniority list.
We're talking about the most senior guys choosing to stay on for their last five years. It would be nice to retire at 60 or 55 even. But I certainly won't. Even at lowly Alaska I expect to make 300k/yr (today's dollars) when I am in my 60's. I'm not going to leave 1.5 mil on the table unless I really don't need it. After all, I'll have the easiest schedule and most vacation at that seniority level.
Exactly.
Originally Posted by sailingfun
what does that mean ? 5000 dudes ? what % of the pilot workforce is making those numbers. And what are they exchanging in return. I bet they are humping to make these numbers, unless it is some 64.9 year old dude #3 on the seniority list.
Originally Posted by Viperstick
A 737 captain in my crash pad made $48k in July & already had 130 hours credit for August as of 9 August. Not saying this will keep up for five years, but for those in low density, high demand positions, there's a lot of coin to be made.
08-22-2014, 09:11 AM
#59
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[QUOTE=mike734;1710228]
Thanks for the info
Originally Posted by satpak77
We're talking about the most senior guys choosing to stay on for their last five years. It would be nice to retire at 60 or 55 even. But I certainly won't. Even at lowly Alaska I expect to make 300k/yr (today's dollars) when I am in my 60's. I'm not going to leave 1.5 mil on the table unless I really don't need it. After all, I'll have the easiest schedule and most vacation at that seniority level.
Exactly.
Exactly.
08-22-2014, 10:30 AM
#60
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Joined APC: Nov 2008
Posts: 74
I don't what you mean by pilot shortage... All I need is ONE lousy job !
I've been sitting in a motel room now for one month sending out resumes' like they were candy and have gotten a few replies but just
requesting me to fill out an application. I quickly do and I use a ruler so it's neat and straight. I also send scanned copies of my docs and then I never hear from them again. I have also sent out 5 to skydiving pilot jobs that were recently posted and they never had the courtesy to even acknowledge receipt i.e. say thanks but we've already hired or we'll keep you on file. NOTHING.
I hold the following credentials:
ATP Single and Multi engine Land and Sea FAA
ATPL Multi Engine Land Canada
ATPL Multi Engine Land Philippines
type rated pic A320 B737 no limitations on ATP license or ratings.
English proficient
Flight Dispatcher FAA
Flight Instructor Multi and Instrument airplane FAA
Ground Instructor Advanced and Instrument FAA
I have passed Flight Engineer Turbojet and Flight Navigator FAA knowledge exams,
Commerical Glider FAA
Secret Security Clearance USA
TSA TWIC
R/Telephone licenses Canada Philippines
General R/Telephone USA
Small Arms Training, Train The Trainer, Ditching, TESL
1st Class Medicals, speak a number of languages, USA and Canadian passports, permanent resident visa Chile, Argentina, UK and Philippines, all WHO shots , driver licenses USA Philippines etc etc
total time 2800
multi time 104
I have no idea what i'm doing wrong .
Hard to believe there are that many people applying for every job I see.
I'm seriously considering blowing it off and just getting a CDL. 3 weeks of training and 4k for school. I drove thru Texas a few weeks ago and saw a large number of jobs for truckers there. I asked one place and they offered 52k to start and tops off at 85k but I've invested 80k so far in aviation and dont want give up now . all that work, studying, money etc !
If anyone knows some place that can use me ,please send me a PM
THANKS !
I've been sitting in a motel room now for one month sending out resumes' like they were candy and have gotten a few replies but just
requesting me to fill out an application. I quickly do and I use a ruler so it's neat and straight. I also send scanned copies of my docs and then I never hear from them again. I have also sent out 5 to skydiving pilot jobs that were recently posted and they never had the courtesy to even acknowledge receipt i.e. say thanks but we've already hired or we'll keep you on file. NOTHING.
I hold the following credentials:
ATP Single and Multi engine Land and Sea FAA
ATPL Multi Engine Land Canada
ATPL Multi Engine Land Philippines
type rated pic A320 B737 no limitations on ATP license or ratings.
English proficient
Flight Dispatcher FAA
Flight Instructor Multi and Instrument airplane FAA
Ground Instructor Advanced and Instrument FAA
I have passed Flight Engineer Turbojet and Flight Navigator FAA knowledge exams,
Commerical Glider FAA
Secret Security Clearance USA
TSA TWIC
R/Telephone licenses Canada Philippines
General R/Telephone USA
Small Arms Training, Train The Trainer, Ditching, TESL
1st Class Medicals, speak a number of languages, USA and Canadian passports, permanent resident visa Chile, Argentina, UK and Philippines, all WHO shots , driver licenses USA Philippines etc etc
total time 2800
multi time 104
I have no idea what i'm doing wrong .
Hard to believe there are that many people applying for every job I see.
I'm seriously considering blowing it off and just getting a CDL. 3 weeks of training and 4k for school. I drove thru Texas a few weeks ago and saw a large number of jobs for truckers there. I asked one place and they offered 52k to start and tops off at 85k but I've invested 80k so far in aviation and dont want give up now . all that work, studying, money etc !
If anyone knows some place that can use me ,please send me a PM
THANKS !
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