"Pilot Shortage" - well ?
08-22-2014 | 02:20 AM
#51
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From: A330 First Officer
[QUOTE=sailingfun;1710021]
Not by straight pay. Unfortunately when you talk of most of these guys that make something significantly out of the norm for pay, it's because they only live for Delta. Heck we have 08 hires in NYC on the MD88 that fly so many greenslips that they make more than 767 Captains, however they live in base, or a crashpad, and they have their bags packs so they can run to the airport at a moments notice. Sorry but that's no life.
$400k/yr for five years? Not in this country, not even including 401k and occasional overtime. And especially not for the large number who will never make widebody captain, or will only make it as junior on reserve at a base far from home and family.
A significant number of pilots at Delta break 400k counting the DC plan. I just flew with a 767 FO who broke 300k not counting the DC plan.
A significant number of pilots at Delta break 400k counting the DC plan. I just flew with a 767 FO who broke 300k not counting the DC plan.
08-22-2014 | 03:05 AM
#52
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From: Capt
The pilot shortage is already affecting me. I have had several AA/UAL flights cancelled due to lack of crews, and had to get rebooked (we have our own travel dept-they use sabre) on delta, so aa/ual lost revenue.
If the majors bring all flying in house, or they do a 100% flow thru, that will only help in the short run. There are not enough new pilot starts to supply the pilots for all the planes in the US down the road. The majors will have to do something to entice more civilians to start flt training.
AND then there's the ever-increasing demand from Asia that the majors will have to deal with.
If the majors bring all flying in house, or they do a 100% flow thru, that will only help in the short run. There are not enough new pilot starts to supply the pilots for all the planes in the US down the road. The majors will have to do something to entice more civilians to start flt training.
AND then there's the ever-increasing demand from Asia that the majors will have to deal with.
08-22-2014 | 05:38 AM
#53
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Kinda sick of hearing there will "never" be a shortage at the majors.
Only the regionals huh?
Isn't that "regional" flying needed by the majors? You think they'll sit idly by while routes and aircraft go unstaffed? And They're unable to get passengers into hubs to get on international "mainline" flights.
All the flying is eventually going back in house, the first ones to do so will be able to staff their network, the ones that don't or are slowest are going to have EMB 170s and CRJ 900s sitting on a ramp somewhere with no one to fly them. Call it what you want.
Only the regionals huh?
Isn't that "regional" flying needed by the majors? You think they'll sit idly by while routes and aircraft go unstaffed? And They're unable to get passengers into hubs to get on international "mainline" flights.
All the flying is eventually going back in house, the first ones to do so will be able to staff their network, the ones that don't or are slowest are going to have EMB 170s and CRJ 900s sitting on a ramp somewhere with no one to fly them. Call it what you want.
A shadow-supply of licensed but currently inactive commercial pilots may mitigate some of the wage pressure at the regional level, but the gap between current starting pilot wages today and what is necessary may be as high as 2X
The "shortage" won't affect mainlines for quite some time. Brands are shrinking their "regional" footprints. UAL has announced 131 aircraft are coming out of ExpressJet by the end of 2015 with only 70 backfills for the system. Delta will shrink from 638 DCI in 2012 to 425 at the end of 2015. Some of the capacity is going to mainline, but many of the pilot block hours (jobs) are going away.
So no, not all the "regional" flying is needed or wanted by the brands. Pay increases at the regionals will enable them to recruit new pilots or get ones that have left the profession to return. It will also make them less cost effective for their mainline partners. And there are way more current regional pilots that want mainline jobs than there are mainline jobs projected to be available this decade.
08-22-2014 | 05:53 AM
#54
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This is a process, and not a fast one. The current status as I see it:
The U.S. is producing new pilots for domestic consumption at a negligible rate. Embry Riddle and Flight Safety International are over 90% foreign pilots with commitments overseas. They have money and buy luxury apartments while in training, so they have U.S. addresses on their licenses, and the FAA reports they are licensing U.S. residents, but they aren't going to U.S. airlines. U.S. schools will be graduating only a hundreds of American commercial pilots every year for many years, based on current enrollment.
Young Americans are not entering flight training, they consider the career undesirable, and doomed to obsolescence due to automation and technology. The FAA recently released a statement that this would not happen soon, which came across as assuring young people it would happen, probably later during their peak earning years. There will not be a surge of new American pilots, or a surge of foreign pilots taking pay cuts to come here.
U.S. major airlines are hiring 4000+ pilots per year (Boeing forecasts 4,500/yr), mostly from the regionals. That number is supposed to be going up according to the airlines. The regionals have around 16,000-18,000 pilots, it won't take long for this hiring to decimate them, and the U.S. domestic airline networks they fly the majority of.
Regional airlines are in a shortage, are cutting routes and parking airplanes due to lack of pilots.
U.S. business aviation has over 13,000 jets on order. Their pilots have been stagnated as long as the majors, they are approaching normal retirement age. They will need a lot of pilots, especially if they see scheduled airline service cut back in this country. Some estimates (NBAA and Bureau of Labor Statistics) show business aviation hiring more pilots than the airlines over the next ten years. Maybe not, but it will be significant.
All of this is before the industry sees over half the commercial pilots in the U.S. retire in one decade, and a surge in demand with the economic recovery.
So the question is not "will it happen", it is already happening, but how painful will it be and who will win and who will lose?
The U.S. is producing new pilots for domestic consumption at a negligible rate. Embry Riddle and Flight Safety International are over 90% foreign pilots with commitments overseas. They have money and buy luxury apartments while in training, so they have U.S. addresses on their licenses, and the FAA reports they are licensing U.S. residents, but they aren't going to U.S. airlines. U.S. schools will be graduating only a hundreds of American commercial pilots every year for many years, based on current enrollment.
Young Americans are not entering flight training, they consider the career undesirable, and doomed to obsolescence due to automation and technology. The FAA recently released a statement that this would not happen soon, which came across as assuring young people it would happen, probably later during their peak earning years. There will not be a surge of new American pilots, or a surge of foreign pilots taking pay cuts to come here.
U.S. major airlines are hiring 4000+ pilots per year (Boeing forecasts 4,500/yr), mostly from the regionals. That number is supposed to be going up according to the airlines. The regionals have around 16,000-18,000 pilots, it won't take long for this hiring to decimate them, and the U.S. domestic airline networks they fly the majority of.
Regional airlines are in a shortage, are cutting routes and parking airplanes due to lack of pilots.
U.S. business aviation has over 13,000 jets on order. Their pilots have been stagnated as long as the majors, they are approaching normal retirement age. They will need a lot of pilots, especially if they see scheduled airline service cut back in this country. Some estimates (NBAA and Bureau of Labor Statistics) show business aviation hiring more pilots than the airlines over the next ten years. Maybe not, but it will be significant.
All of this is before the industry sees over half the commercial pilots in the U.S. retire in one decade, and a surge in demand with the economic recovery.
So the question is not "will it happen", it is already happening, but how painful will it be and who will win and who will lose?
08-22-2014 | 06:47 AM
#55
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From: Left Seat
[QUOTE=sailingfun;1710021]
what does that mean ? 5000 dudes ? what % of the pilot workforce is making those numbers. And what are they exchanging in return. I bet they are humping to make these numbers, unless it is some 64.9 year old dude #3 on the seniority list.
$400k/yr for five years? Not in this country, not even including 401k and occasional overtime. And especially not for the large number who will never make widebody captain, or will only make it as junior on reserve at a base far from home and family.
A significant number of pilots at Delta break 400k counting the DC plan. I just flew with a 767 FO who broke 300k not counting the DC plan.
A significant number of pilots at Delta break 400k counting the DC plan. I just flew with a 767 FO who broke 300k not counting the DC plan.
08-22-2014 | 06:58 AM
#56
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A 737 captain in my crash pad made $48k in July & already had 130 hours credit for August as of 9 August. Not saying this will keep up for five years, but for those in low density, high demand positions, there's a lot of coin to be made.
08-22-2014 | 07:03 AM
#57
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From: A-320
(Not directed at you Viperstick)
08-22-2014 | 08:05 AM
#59
New boss = Old boss
Joined: Mar 2005
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From: Ca B737
[QUOTE=satpak77;1710142]
We're talking about the most senior guys choosing to stay on for their last five years. It would be nice to retire at 60 or 55 even. But I certainly won't. Even at lowly Alaska I expect to make 300k/yr (today's dollars) when I am in my 60's. I'm not going to leave 1.5 mil on the table unless I really don't need it. After all, I'll have the easiest schedule and most vacation at that seniority level.
Exactly.
Exactly.
08-22-2014 | 09:11 AM
#60
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Working weekends
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From: Left Seat
[QUOTE=mike734;1710228]
Thanks for the info
We're talking about the most senior guys choosing to stay on for their last five years. It would be nice to retire at 60 or 55 even. But I certainly won't. Even at lowly Alaska I expect to make 300k/yr (today's dollars) when I am in my 60's. I'm not going to leave 1.5 mil on the table unless I really don't need it. After all, I'll have the easiest schedule and most vacation at that seniority level.
Exactly.
Exactly.
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