Scoop

I agree with your logic above but remember those are the mandatory retirement numbers - a lot of guys never make it to 65.

We could easily add a 5% attrition rate to your numbers above. Still not 50% but probably closer to 40% than 33%.

Also I think it is safe to assume that the number of guys who don't make it to 65 will be larger than the number who did not make it to 60. Hell, 5 more years for things to go wrong.

Scoop

Imapilot2

yes but if we early out guys 2-3 years early that only effects the last 2-3 years in the 10yr window. go forward a couple years and those guys are part of the mandatory anyway. not much effect imo....just saying. sliding a few guys early only slides the window and wont change the total for the next 30....so in effect very short term diff. nothing in the long run

the good part is steady hiring. shortage no. steady yes. nothing like what we have had for the last decade. so in perspective it is awesome compared to what we are use to for the last ten years.

Cubdriver

US Bureau of Labor Statistics says the number of domestic airline pilot jobs will actually decrease somewhat through 2022. The pilot shortage proponents do not like their analysis for some reason though, which is curious.

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Imapilot2

all numbers we are talking about here are replacing pilots not adding to the total. 800 out of 104000 total throughout indusrty is insignificant and only shows no total growth. Delta and United need to replace about 8200 pilots in the next ten....assuming no change in current structure, its a wag but there is nothing else but a wag

scottm

Right now we are seeing fairly high numbers of pilots staying to 65. The new retirement systems don't reward staying like they used to, the incentive to stay is that pilots can't afford to start drawing down their 401k funds, and can't afford the expensive medical plans in retirement. At my airline you lose retirement benefit value by staying past 60, but many still can't afford to leave.

Many years ago, a lot of airline pilots went to corporate flying at 60 and worked another five years. Corporations needed the pilots. If corporations start hurting for pilots, they could easily make it worth making the jump at 60 or even 55. A decent retirement plan alone could make it worth the jump, especially for those pilots who will never make the top seniority with the high pay at their airline. A lot of the current new-hires are pretty senior, and will be in that position. Corporate flying can be challenging, but technology is making it easier, and the bigger jets they are trending to are pretty sweet. As the airlines get more productivity out of their pilots, and cut hotel costs, the airline pilot lifestyle is going to keep getting more challenging by comparison.

Silver02ex

There is also no talk about the LCC. Spirit, Jet Blue, Virgin. From what I noticed, they will grow. I'm sure a handful of these guys moving to the legacy. At my company, we are losing 30-50 pilots a month. Some to Delta, and the rest to other airlines. We haven't seen the big retirement yet. We are getting to the point that the company is positive space us on our commute so we don't call in honest or call in sick. I have never seen that at this company, all of this while Delta is parking 50 seater as fast as they can.

OnCenterline

A bit of history is in order here. After deregulation, airlines did not know how to operate in an unregulated market, and so most of them screwed it up in fabulous fashion: goofy city pairs, poor network management, new fleets, the airline-within-the-airline fiascos. That was the order of the day through the 1980s and early 1990s. The result was predictable: many failed.

In the late 80s and early 90s, there was a gradual turnover of management as the older generation retired. The new generation began the imposition of containing capacity and doing a better job of controlling inventory (Bob Crandall at American was at the forefront of this, which is something he learned working for Hallmark selling greeting cards). Others followed, and eventually it was perfected, esp. in the post-9/11 world. None of the airline managers in that era were hold-overs any more. All had come from other backgrounds, and had a much better understanding of the value and cost of a seat. In fact, there is no commodity more useless than an empty seat on a plane that is pushing back from the gate--it can never be sold again.

In the last 10-15 years, airlines have shown phenomenal discipline in controlling inventory, and thus costs. It is that discipline that has allowed the industry to thrive, along with overhauls in the overall model, including some of the fluff in legacy labor contracts (not just the pilots).

The legacies may have pilots working more hours, but they still don't come close to the average line of a regional pilot, where line values start at 82-84 hours per month, while the min line value at a major may be 70-75, even when taking into account seasonal spikes in the summer. Throw in differences in vacation and sick accrual, along with the ability adjust schedules, and regional pilots still work harder.

Bare in mind as well that while the majors are "wildly profitable," all of them are dealing with sizeable debt loads that need to be addressed. Delta (I believe) has a total debt burden of $8-10 billion, and United's is around $14 billion. Those are big numbers, and both carriers are aggressively working to pare them down. If you think they're making money now, wait until those debt loads are reduced. Remember, the only airlines that are making money strictly on their operations are Southwest and jetBlue. Everyone else is only making money because of ancillary fees.

As for growth, the reality is that there isn't much room for organic growth for network carriers. They already go where people want to go, and as far as the areas that they don't go, someone in their alliance does. There comes a point where it is cheaper to book someone on an alliance partner vs. opening a station on your own. The growth now is in total revenue, and that's where all the fees come into play.

The smaller cities in the US are about to learn that (cheap) air service is not a right, it's a privilege, and you will only have it if the demand is there.

The pilot shortage is indeed here, but it will be some time before the real pain is felt. I do believe that something will happen to change the market for pilots, whether it's more pay or some other incentive, but it will happen.

OnCenterline

It's awfully hard to walk away from an extra $1.5-2.0 million over 5 years (salary and overtime plus 401(k) contributions), especially with current contracts. My own unscientific survey indicates that the cost of medical insurance is the biggest reason guys are staying. If they airlines allowed them to stay in the plan until 65, or even 67, folks would be much more likely to jump ship early.

82spukram

Proof of a shortage.....look no further then the most recent CBAs at DAL, UAL, USAir MOU, AA bankruptcy contract. I think everyone agrees that a legacy carrier will not be released to strike so then why would the airlines give in when they had some of the best contracts ever? 1) mergers. 2) they need to recruit. After a decade of making it a crappy job and pilots telling little kids who enter the cockpit "do good in school kid otherwise you might have to do this some day" and "I wouldn't tell my kid to this" and " how am suppose to afford my boat,airplane, 3 house, 4 ex wives, and 12 bastard children on this joke wage" management finally got what they wanted. An industry that nobody wants to spend the time, money, and effort to do this for 10 days home ,after you factor in crappy unproductive non commutable trips. Well they now need people back in the game and at the end of the day there is only one motivator

MONEY!

As long as you believe you will end making 300k flying 10 days month laying over in Hong Kong with happy ending (or whatever the ladies like to do on there layovers) the young kid looking skyward at 18 trying to figure out what do with life will definitely come back to this job, even if they have to fly to a crap whole town like TYLER TEXAS (my home) at $20/hr to get to Hong Kong.


This is how you know they need you right now. They offering money, benefits (16% DC plans) better work rules, and of course higher hourly wages. Argue all you want but supply and demand drive the wage market. We are in demand. Enjoy the next 15 years. After that enjoy the ride back down.

gloopy

I don't buy that at all. Firt of all, DL started way late and passed on many great apps they could have gotten. Secondly, we're very short in several categories with reserves getting worn out and green slips flying all around. If what you heard was really true, we'd be fat even in the summer.

We waited as long as possible to hire and even with the hiring are barely keeping the schedule up (and even then parked 1/4 of our whale fleet in no small part due to training waterfall concerns with actually filling the vacancies that were expected before they were suddenly parked in a panic, followed by no displacements.

We're short and definately not supply side hiring just to nap the good ones.