Bottom of Delta's or Southwest's list
06-06-2016, 01:36 PM
#71
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Narrow/Left Wide/Right
Posts: 3,655
Originally Posted by Smokey23
FWIW, SWA has never closed a domicile that they opened (so don't give me MKE, fATNs 
)
This choice really boils down to:
There is no wrong choice!
)This choice really boils down to:
There is no wrong choice!
06-07-2016, 12:52 AM
#72
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2015
Posts: 253
Nevermind.
I am sorry I tried to point out how pointless it is to try and base your decision today on what will happen 20 years in the future.
You are right as long as there are a lot of retirements nothing bad will ever happen. Everyone from now on will be a major airline Captain in 2 years, no more furloughs ever, the superb skill of airline management will keep you gainfully employed forever and if they don't you have a large amount of retirements. So, my bad.
I am sorry I tried to point out how pointless it is to try and base your decision today on what will happen 20 years in the future.
You are right as long as there are a lot of retirements nothing bad will ever happen. Everyone from now on will be a major airline Captain in 2 years, no more furloughs ever, the superb skill of airline management will keep you gainfully employed forever and if they don't you have a large amount of retirements. So, my bad.
06-07-2016, 04:08 AM
#73
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Petting Zoo
Posts: 2,074
Originally Posted by Bluesideup1
Nevermind.
I am sorry I tried to point out how pointless it is to try and base your decision today on what will happen 20 years in the future.
I am sorry I tried to point out how pointless it is to try and base your decision today on what will happen 20 years in the future.
06-07-2016, 05:31 AM
#74
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,213
Originally Posted by Bluesideup1
Nevermind.
I am sorry I tried to point out how pointless it is to try and base your decision today on what will happen 20 years in the future.
You are right as long as there are a lot of retirements nothing bad will ever happen. Everyone from now on will be a major airline Captain in 2 years, no more furloughs ever, the superb skill of airline management will keep you gainfully employed forever and if they don't you have a large amount of retirements. So, my bad.
I am sorry I tried to point out how pointless it is to try and base your decision today on what will happen 20 years in the future.
You are right as long as there are a lot of retirements nothing bad will ever happen. Everyone from now on will be a major airline Captain in 2 years, no more furloughs ever, the superb skill of airline management will keep you gainfully employed forever and if they don't you have a large amount of retirements. So, my bad.
No one is saying everyone is going to upgrade in two years or that recessions don't happen. So yes, long term predictions are hard but some choices seem more obvious.
In 2014 the upgrade estimate at SW was 14 years, or about 2028. Currently at AA the junior Captain, while not as good as the recent FedEx and DL upgrades, is at 64% of the total list. That's a fairly constant percentage. TallFlyer put together some data on APC.
Let's look at a guy hired in 2019. Using TallFlyer's charts a guy hired in late 2019 at AA will hit the 64% mark in 2025. At DL it's 2026. At UA's it's early 2028. The retirement data, in a stable market, shows 2019 new hires getting hired at the Big 3 upgrading at the junior base, in the junior equipment, in 6-9 years. That's mind boggling but shows how crazy the retirement surge will be and why the industry is scrambling despite guys saying there is no shortage. Management worldwide is concerned.
And yes, economic events can change the timeline but the retirement numbers, and percentages, are so high the tidal wave is coming. Exactly when it hard to predict but it's out there. If you looked at a Big 3 pilot in 2013/2014 the odds are that 75% of them will be off the list approx. 2030.
06-07-2016, 07:18 AM
#75
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,213
Originally Posted by fishforfun
Ritrements do not equal replacements or movement up. It can be a furlough protection but don't start buying your BMWs and yachts based on your upgrade plans just yet.
You can breath easier for very five percent of the list you get below you.
Last edited by Sliceback; 06-07-2016 at 07:26 AM. Reason: Added last paragraph
06-07-2016, 01:35 PM
#76
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2015
Posts: 253
Originally Posted by Sliceback
No one is saying everyone is going to upgrade in two years or that recessions don't happen. So yes, long term predictions are hard but some choices seem more obvious.
In 2014 the upgrade estimate at SW was 14 years, or about 2028. Currently at AA the junior Captain, while not as good as the recent FedEx and DL upgrades, is at 64% of the total list. That's a fairly constant percentage. TallFlyer put together some data on APC.
Let's look at a guy hired in 2019. Using TallFlyer's charts a guy hired in late 2019 at AA will hit the 64% mark in 2025. At DL it's 2026. At UA's it's early 2028. The retirement data, in a stable market, shows 2019 new hires getting hired at the Big 3 upgrading at the junior base, in the junior equipment, in 6-9 years. That's mind boggling but shows how crazy the retirement surge will be and why the industry is scrambling despite guys saying there is no shortage. Management worldwide is concerned.
And yes, economic events can change the timeline but the retirement numbers, and percentages, are so high the tidal wave is coming. Exactly when it hard to predict but it's out there. If you looked at a Big 3 pilot in 2013/2014 the odds are that 75% of them will be off the list approx. 2030.
In 2014 the upgrade estimate at SW was 14 years, or about 2028. Currently at AA the junior Captain, while not as good as the recent FedEx and DL upgrades, is at 64% of the total list. That's a fairly constant percentage. TallFlyer put together some data on APC.
Let's look at a guy hired in 2019. Using TallFlyer's charts a guy hired in late 2019 at AA will hit the 64% mark in 2025. At DL it's 2026. At UA's it's early 2028. The retirement data, in a stable market, shows 2019 new hires getting hired at the Big 3 upgrading at the junior base, in the junior equipment, in 6-9 years. That's mind boggling but shows how crazy the retirement surge will be and why the industry is scrambling despite guys saying there is no shortage. Management worldwide is concerned.
And yes, economic events can change the timeline but the retirement numbers, and percentages, are so high the tidal wave is coming. Exactly when it hard to predict but it's out there. If you looked at a Big 3 pilot in 2013/2014 the odds are that 75% of them will be off the list approx. 2030.
06-07-2016, 05:30 PM
#77
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: The Best Coast
Posts: 180
Originally Posted by Sliceback
No one is saying everyone is going to upgrade in two years or that recessions don't happen. So yes, long term predictions are hard but some choices seem more obvious.
In 2014 the upgrade estimate at SW was 14 years, or about 2028. Currently at AA the junior Captain, while not as good as the recent FedEx and DL upgrades, is at 64% of the total list. That's a fairly constant percentage. TallFlyer put together some data on APC.
Let's look at a guy hired in 2019. Using TallFlyer's charts a guy hired in late 2019 at AA will hit the 64% mark in 2025. At DL it's 2026. At UA's it's early 2028. The retirement data, in a stable market, shows 2019 new hires getting hired at the Big 3 upgrading at the junior base, in the junior equipment, in 6-9 years. That's mind boggling but shows how crazy the retirement surge will be and why the industry is scrambling despite guys saying there is no shortage. Management worldwide is concerned.
And yes, economic events can change the timeline but the retirement numbers, and percentages, are so high the tidal wave is coming. Exactly when it hard to predict but it's out there. If you looked at a Big 3 pilot in 2013/2014 the odds are that 75% of them will be off the list approx. 2030.
In 2014 the upgrade estimate at SW was 14 years, or about 2028. Currently at AA the junior Captain, while not as good as the recent FedEx and DL upgrades, is at 64% of the total list. That's a fairly constant percentage. TallFlyer put together some data on APC.
Let's look at a guy hired in 2019. Using TallFlyer's charts a guy hired in late 2019 at AA will hit the 64% mark in 2025. At DL it's 2026. At UA's it's early 2028. The retirement data, in a stable market, shows 2019 new hires getting hired at the Big 3 upgrading at the junior base, in the junior equipment, in 6-9 years. That's mind boggling but shows how crazy the retirement surge will be and why the industry is scrambling despite guys saying there is no shortage. Management worldwide is concerned.
And yes, economic events can change the timeline but the retirement numbers, and percentages, are so high the tidal wave is coming. Exactly when it hard to predict but it's out there. If you looked at a Big 3 pilot in 2013/2014 the odds are that 75% of them will be off the list approx. 2030.
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