Sliceback

You'll turn UA down because it might be two years to get HOU? Or AA because DFW might take 18 months?

IMO that's putting 'no commute' ahead of 20-30 years of better seniority and more flying options.

flyguy81

Yep. Longer to hold the base. Longer to hold a line. In DEN the upgrade is the same right now. I don't care if I can fly a 777 by commuting. I want to drive to work and will stay on a NB to do so.

No desire to sit in a plane 10+ hrs flying on goofy schedules. If I want to see Rome, etc I'll do it on my own time.

full of luv

Well Flyguy, that's what makes the world go round....choices for everyone!

Those Flufs aren't gonna fly themselves.... that will be the 797 someday.

flyguy81

I got 30 yrs left.....who knows. SWA might have a bigger int'l plane someday.

Bluesideup1

UAL may have more flying option but to put better seniority for the next 20-30 years is something no one in this industry can even come close to predicting.

Sliceback

Somethings have better odds of being able to forecast. Even with large cutbacks the Big 3 retirements would provide better odds of better seniority and career progression. Guys hired early in the Big 3 hiring cycle are looking at 777 CA about the same LOS that SW is projecting upgrades. If they choose to stay n/b instead their seniority would be ridiculously senior. Guys hired later in the curve won't have the same differential but based on retirements the Big 3 still outpace SW.

Nothing against SW. I think they're a fine company. But the ages, hiring cycles, and retirement data of the different pilot groups is hard to dispute.

ZapBrannigan

Another 9/11 would completely reshuffle the deck. Ask the two-time United furloughees or the 3 time US Airways furloughees. Ask the junior TWA Captains. Don't bet on seniority progression or upgrade times. A 7 year sit on the beach flushed out the seniority list at USAir after only a fraction of furloughees accepted recall. Then suddenly it was "the place to be".

Make your decisions based on today, not some prognostication about what the industry might look like two decades from now.

snolat

I would argue that this is flawed logic. I have a CJO from both United and SWA. If I'm making my decisions based on today alone I MUST choose United based on the payscale, additional retirement contribution and the fact that I have no interest in living in any domicile that only SWA has. Your counter will most likely be that SWA has a track record of no furloughs and always paying PS. But that would be basing my decision on past performance (which is not an indicator of future success). And the fact that you will get a new contract soon is prognosticating based on the fact we have no idea how much of an increase it will be until it's passed.

Bottom line is I have a difficult decision to make and I'm definitely speculating on what the industry will look like two decades from now.

Call me an optimist, but I do agree with those that think the industry wide manditory retirements will increase "our" chances at future job security.

BTW...I think SWA is wonderful airline and i'm ecstatic that they are willing to hire me. You are blessed to be there.

flyguy81

Both arguments are valid. It all comes down to what you want out of your career. Personally, I've no desire to fly long haul int'l. Our new Cba will have parity with DL and UAL (or it probably won't pass). I line in Denver so for me I looked at time to hold the base and time to hold a line and SWA won. SWA is better run (UAL mgt has been terrible since the mid-90's). From jump seating on both carriers the SWA employees were happier and joked around more while UAL looked liked they were all punched in the junk and were mostly miserable. So I didn't even go to the UAL interview.

Since you don't live in a SWA base, I'd pick the airline with bases where I'd want to live or that would be in driving distance/easy commute. The rest is all speculation on economy, etc. We're one pen stroke from age 70 or whatever and a economic downturn could drastically slow growth creating long upgrades at the legacies. Trying to see what a company will be like in 20 yrs is pointless. You won't know if you made a good choice or not until you retire.

Good luck with your decision....can't go wrong either way.

Bluesideup1

Actually it is very easy to dispute as all you have to do is look at the past. The big 3 have typically hired until they fired. When the furloughs hit it went deep into the seniority list and didn't start moving again for almost a decade. Add into the mix the amount of mergers, larger RJ's for the regionals and you have the making of some backwards progression for quite some time.

This logic is the same ones people use to choose the regional to chase the captain upgrade and it usually didn't turn out the way they expected. To make even the slightest educated guess for anything more than 3-4 years out would be ridiculous based on what could and has happened.