This may also mean that more DC9s will mean less 88s. This will also play in the switch to a Delta staple. Good for the goose is good for the gander.

 

I like how you guys think.

 

Quite true, but there are more a/c than just the nine in the mix. FWIW I have heard nothing and expect to hear nothing until DCC and SLI are done.

 

To have a little humor here is my prediction on what types of ideas are floating around in the marketing and ops world of the new Delta. Remember it's just wild speculation but that is half the fun.

1. Delta smells blood in the water with Airtran. Last week their CEO, makes an unsolicited bid to tell Southwest that his company would entertain a codeshare agreement. Are you kidding me? Airtran CEO: "Hey Southwest do you want to come play in our sandbox with us?" With this in mind expect the 9's and 88's to go all over. Hey 9 drivers: I would start learning the Kory 3 arrival, enjoying the Park Plaza Hotel in BOS, and look forward to the Marine Air Terminal. You guys are the new shuttle operation if Delta doesn't sub contract it all out to a DCI. Marketing needs those 88's elsewhere to be compete even more directly with Airtran.

2. Boeing is in a pinch with the strike and they know it. Midwest Airlines just gave the keys back to Boeing on several 717's they lease from them. Boeing needs to move that product and offers them at firesale prices for Delta to lease them. That's the new 100 seat jet Delta has been looking for as a midterm solution to adjust lift away from still ineffecient 50 seat jets. And just like all the others for some reason they still call it a DC-9 type. Spin up with training and differences I would expect to be minimal and they could be on property by end of January if not earlier.

3. DC-9's will be in ATL to put more pressure on Airtran by direct head to head flights to various markets that Airtran is soft in and Delta wants to control market share.

4. I speculate that DCC will happen within the next two weeks.

More wild speculation for your enjoyment later this week........

 

3. DC-9's will be in ALT to put more pressure on Airtran by direct head to head flights to various markets that Airtran is soft in and Delta wants to control market share.

You are right. In the next six months there will be massive shifting of assets to right size markets. There will also be moving of aircraft into markets that fit their performance capabilities better. MD-90s will be hubbing out of MSP and A320s out of SLC for example. There will be many NWA crews laying over in DAL hubs and visa versa.


4. I speculate that DCC will happen within the next two weeks.

Good call. I would not be surprised if it was done by Election day.

 

I must say its nice to see some DAL boys being positive about whats going to happen. We have been trying to tell you guys for a while now that having the paid for DC9s is actually a good thing . Both NWA and DAL know they are very flexible aircraft and are reliable. I cant begin to tell you how many times i was called out to go ferry a 9 somewhere to save a bus flight or even a compass flight.

Again its nice to see some optimism now and hopefully you guys are right. (we are hearing the same info over here fwiw)

Cheers

 

What you say may be true at $40-60 ppb oil but as the price rises (which it inevitably will), the 9s utility falls. They are the most vulnerable a/c in our combined fleet. If it's true that we can pick up the 717s cheaply maybe that will be the magic 100 seater that we all hopes comes with Delta widgets not DC widgets. The more planes the more pilots. I hope those things stay for many years but hope only gets you bad presidents.

The real question is will the cheaper oil allow our weaker competetors to hang around.

 

You have some very good information.....

 

No problem....
What gets me more than anything else is this constant our "Kool Aid is better than your Kool Aid" crap from both sides. I even admit that at least a time or two with the right concentration of alcohol in my body I have slung a nice fat molatov cocktail in the lounge before just to see what happened.

That being said based on both internal (synergies of fleets and foriegn airline codeshare agreements (Air France)) and external factors (economic effects on airlines by the softening economy and further consolodations and reductions): here comes another great piece of speculation for you.

The next 3 to 4 years in the airline industry will be such a wild ride for people in this industry that it will make the past 30 years of deregulation look and feel like a kiddie ride at the state fair. I would much rather be at Delta on whatever type of list is developed than a lot of other places watching the horror movie play out in front of me.

 

Amen Brother!