Hold on - I messed it up.

Ok, fixed now...

I built a little Spreadsheet to help you guys project upgrade times with the projected growth on the horizon.

You basically plug in the variables you think make sense, like staffing levels you expect, and total fleet size, predicted attrition, etc.

I'll just let the math speak for itself, good or bad. Keep in mind if you get a negative number under the results side it means that number of guys hired in that time-frame would not have an opportunity to upgrade.

Do yourself a favor. Don't plug in more than 10 pilots per plane. These represent truly active pilots, not total pilots, and I don't see that number EVER going above 10, rule 117 notwithstanding. But if you like rosey predictions, and you disagree with me, then bump it up all you want

Feel free to alter all you want. And by all means point out any errors you find

Dude, nice.

A couple of questions:

"Current Status" is 70 airplanes, judging from the Mesa APC profile page that's not inclusive of the 9 900s delivered this summer?

Also, APC lists Mesa as having 855 pilots on the seniority list.

I guess what I'm saying is we need an update of what "Current Status" is.

I'm using the latest real data... only people filling seats full time as we speak - No instructors, ALPA, Managers, Trainees, or Leave of absences.

Let me look at the fleet size again, but I'm pretty sure 70 includes the nine latest 900's

Just checking. I know that APC numbers are sometimes taken as Gospel, just wanted to double check.

Nice work. If your theory is correct, you will a bunch of folks with their foot up their mouth. But its nice to see upgrade times are dropping.

No worries I'm glad you asked. I didn't' mean to yell. LOL.

That's Ok, I can take it.

Has attrition really been around 5 a month?

And check your PMs.

So my defaults in the spreadsheet are pretty optimistic, yet realistic I think. But in the interest of fairness lets look at a less than desirable, yet realistic scenario too.

Go to my spreadsheet and type in:

100 Planes. (imagining after the 175s arrive, no more growth)

9 pilots per plane (imagining they decide to run as lean as possible)

2 per month attrition (imagining the whole industry slows)

And you'll see that you must push the projection out 4 years before the most senior guys in class right now will see an upgrade.

No, my jab of zero skill was an implication on the seniority system in which everyone gets to move up but only when their number comes. A pilot could suck/fail but eventually will pass and hold the left seat - Colgan 3407 comes to mind. On the flip side of the coin, a pilot could be very dedicated, excel above average but the seniority system still dictates his progression up the ladder. Only in a merit based system could you have skill come into play for movement, but then that opens the door for management kiss ass types to move up while other good guys get left behind.

And yes, I'm at the company you mentioned and I started here at a time when the only legacy/majors hiring were Spirit and VX. Anyway, I wasn't attacking you so hope you didn't take it like that. I was simply pointing out that someone could have started at the same company as you, spent even more time, and not get a single hour of TPIC and all that has nothing to do with skill or lack thereof. It was simply a numbers and movement issue in which the opportunity just isn't there.