Nice work. If your theory is correct, you will a bunch of folks with their foot up their mouth. But its nice to see upgrade times are dropping.

 

No worries I'm glad you asked. I didn't' mean to yell. LOL.

 

That's Ok, I can take it.

Has attrition really been around 5 a month?

And check your PMs.

 

So my defaults in the spreadsheet are pretty optimistic, yet realistic I think. But in the interest of fairness lets look at a less than desirable, yet realistic scenario too.

Go to my spreadsheet and type in:

100 Planes. (imagining after the 175s arrive, no more growth)

9 pilots per plane (imagining they decide to run as lean as possible)

2 per month attrition (imagining the whole industry slows)

And you'll see that you must push the projection out 4 years before the most senior guys in class right now will see an upgrade.

 

No, my jab of zero skill was an implication on the seniority system in which everyone gets to move up but only when their number comes. A pilot could suck/fail but eventually will pass and hold the left seat - Colgan 3407 comes to mind. On the flip side of the coin, a pilot could be very dedicated, excel above average but the seniority system still dictates his progression up the ladder. Only in a merit based system could you have skill come into play for movement, but then that opens the door for management kiss ass types to move up while other good guys get left behind.

And yes, I'm at the company you mentioned and I started here at a time when the only legacy/majors hiring were Spirit and VX. Anyway, I wasn't attacking you so hope you didn't take it like that. I was simply pointing out that someone could have started at the same company as you, spent even more time, and not get a single hour of TPIC and all that has nothing to do with skill or lack thereof. It was simply a numbers and movement issue in which the opportunity just isn't there.

 

Again, same point I made above. Getting hired in 2002-2004 at a regional was the golden days of the regional jet industry. Tons of RJs were delivered while mainline 737-200s, classics, DC9s, F100s, 727s were parked. Guys started at a regional and with the explosive growth were able to upgrade very quickly, get their time, and get out. Those hired today at regionals should know the explosive growth at the regional level is mostly gone. Age 65 killed movement for anyone starting at a regional in 2007. No regional airline is getting 100+ airplanes like they were back in 2002-2003. Now they are all parking 50 seaters and some are "lucky" to get some 70/90 seaters to help as replacements.

 

Mesa is back on....classes start again 2nd week of November!

 

Are your november lines showing any increase in long overnights?

CLT showing a lot of +30 hour overnights... making your 4 day worth 16-18 hours, or your 3 day much much less. Some of us figure they were eliminating the RR nights to gear up for 117, but we still have a handful of standups (my personal favorite).

IAD, ORD, PHX crews, thoughts?

 

You will likely rethink that position within the next few months and realize you made the best blind decision of your life and didn't even know it....

IF

The rumors I'm hearing from our union guys and from management friends are proven correct. You'll have career progression at Eagle that you'll never get elsewhere until other legacies copy AA.

 

Not seeing those in IAD. United trips seem to be staying "semi" productive