Seniority list down to 1218

 

Seniority List

October - 1258
November - 1231
January - 1218

Even though they are hiring every pilot they can find that meets the mins, and will come to Mesa, the seniority list is decreasing. It seems Mesa has an attrition problem.

Ideas? Anyone? Bueller?

Perhaps it is time for a new, industry standard contract. Perhaps.
At this point, may also need to throw in some retention bonuses like every other regional is doing.

I can't see any airline throwing airplanes Mesa's way with these kind of stats.

 

It's actually slightly worse than that. The most junior pilot has a seniority number of 1218, but there are gaps in the numbering. There are currently 1210 pilots on the seniority list (plus 2 pilots with a seniority number of 0).

 

Lets put my gorilla math to work.
133 planes * 10 fh/day * 31 day/month = 41230 fh/month.

41230 /70 fh per-pilot = 589 pilots *2 (you need a co-pilot) = 1178 pilots.

So my guess is right now Mesa is either fully staffed for pilots or close to it. Mesa probably wants a few more than that to cover training, sick days, misc coverage, so 1250 would be the ideal number of pilots...I think.

Am I close?

 

My understanding is those with a seniority number of 0 are those that have given their 2 week notice.

 

64 CRJ9
20 CRJ7 (heard 19 now?)
48 E175
=132

The CR2 is a spare and not in scheduled service, so I wouldn't count that for staffing purposes.

The staffing goal is 10x pilots per plane (that's a regional standard I've heard generally, then the former COO said to our class that it was his goal as well). So 1300 is about what they are shooting for with the current fleet. That said, on the seniority list there are pilots on vacation, leaves of absence, training, management, recruiting, and other various assignments who aren't flying. Those are normally accounted for with that 10x per plane, but that variable can vary widely. With a high turnover rate, more are in training at any given time, and more are instructors at any given time, straining the rest of the force.

The best way to see if Mesa is adequately staffed is to check the number of reserves and their monthly flight hours. An inadequately staffed airline has reserves flying a lot. Most airlines shoot for 30-50 hours as optimal reserve utilization. That minimizes paying people to do nothing (overstaffed) and minimizes system disruptions with no available reserves (understaffed). The latter also negatively affects QOL when pilots can't drop or swap trips because the reserve grid is always red.

Last I checked, Mesas reserve grid is mostly red, and reserves, if there are any, fly a lot. When I was there, and we were growing and were staffed, it was green a lot (on the FO side). We also teetered around 1300 pilots and still had some E175s yet to be delivered. Those times are gone, quick upgrades are gone, pay still sucks, and the number of pilots is declining monthly. The only reason Mesa is not canceling flights imo is due to the fact that it's the slow season.

No way Mesa can keep up with the summer demand if the attrition continues to exceed accession and the number of flight hours go up. I'd expect a bonus of some sort in the next 2-3 months to prevent that, unless parking/transferring planes to another carrier is in the cards for JO. Or maybe he will finally acquiesce and give a decent contract, but based on his history I don't think that will happen.

 

Your math is close but can be further refined, however it matters not since BeatNavy's comments are more germane.

But, in any case: (132 aircraft * your presumed 10 flight hours per day * (365 days / 12 months per year)) / 75.83 contract hours per month, per pilot * 2 pilots per aircraft = 1058.9 pilots.

With the management types on the seniority list, ground school instructors, military / medical LOAs, etc., that could be easily 10% of the seniority list. 1218 * .9 = 1096, which is reasonably close to 1058.9.

Your calculated mileage may vary. Average airframe utilization per day is a variable here we don't really know. But these rough back-of-the-napkin calculations suggest we are appropriately staffed .. at this point in time.

The reserve grid could use some strengthening, and additional folks in the door and qualified would help with that. That is probably why the seniority list has floated in the 1250-1350 range over the last year.

 

We for sure aren't adequately staffed right now. We may be close but anyone in DFW knows we're short.

 

When i worked there, it peaked at 1335 roughly 6 months ago...
Get the hell out now, and drain that swamp!
Thank God I am a LAMA!! The A-320 is sweet...

I am watching the USS Ornstein turd finally sink! With a beer in my hand of course!

 

Was just in Phoenix. Saw the N numbers with my "Own eyes." We are getting 8 very very soon (Ejets) possibly 4 more after. My theory. United and American probably pay us way more than other regionals. They reward good work. JO just doesn't give it out and won't until he has to. How could Commutair and transrates possibly get better deals than mesa. Just think about it. He will drag this labor issue as long as he can