colonials13

Thanks all. Also, how many checkride busts does PSA consider disqualifying?

Jet757

I've seen people with 2 busts. Depends on what they are and how you explain them.

colonials13

You've seen people with two busts get TBNT, or you've seen people with two busts working at PSA?

Billy738

What is the actually flow time if hired right now?

ZeroTT

Roughly 2000 pilots, flow 10 per month.

The big question is the assumptions you make about outside attrition and whether the flow rate will change.

Billy738

Ok so that’s over 10 years for a new hire then correct? Or maybe I did math wrong

Macchi30

I spoke with a recruiter just a few days ago and was told 6 years

ZeroTT

That would imply the following assumptions:

72 months = 720 flows

Approximately 1300 other people need to leave. So something like 15-20/month outside hiring.

Thedude86

Not saying PSA recruiters are unique, but recruiters from any airline are basically like car salesmen. They will tell you anything to make a sell. Personally, I would never listen to any recruiter from any airline. The best people to talk to are people flying the line. Try to talk to personal friends or find somebody that might know someone at a particular airline.

With all of that said, our pilot group (including me) is a lot happier than they were a year ago. But a 6 year flow is nowhere near accurate. Technically, the recruiter isn’t lying. People flowing right now have only been here 5-6 years. But those people were hired when we only had about 700 total pilots. Now we’re over 2,000 pilots and we still only flow 10 per month. Assuming nobody leaves outside the flow that’s 16.7 years for a new hire to flow. Obviously though, there is outside attrition. Our numbers guy puts out some pretty accurate and detailed charts every month based on historical data. His best estimate for a new hire today is 9-11 years. Since we are growing, but the flow rate is not.... the later you start the more your flow time will increase.

My personal guess is that the flow rate will eventually increase but I dunno if that’ll happen next week or 2 years from now or even longer. It’s up to AA management.

Throwitaway

It's up to PSA management and how many pilots we can flow before we collapse due to staffing issues. AA wants more, PSA said we can only give you 10. I am a firm believer that our scheduling and crew planning is the biggest issue this company faces. The fact of the matter is that we're more so forcing upgrades out of necessity and not so much out of convenience.

New/prospective hires need to keep this in mind. When AA feels the full force of their ~1000/yr retirements starting next year, they can not just take ~800 pilots from their wholly owned affiliates, they are going to have to pull from ULCC/LCC/other regionals/part135. No one knows right now but to me the math of a significant flow increase doesn't add up for a sustainable regional business model. A prospective hire might have a better chance working for ANY regional for 2-3 years, hoping to say, frontier for 2-3 years, then landing a job at AA in 4-6 years. Beats the heck out of waiting for that 8-10 year flow through a wholly owned.