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Old 11-15-2019, 03:01 AM
  #1161  
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I feel that there is writing on the wall that shows us that increased flow is upon us. They have been hiring like crazy and we are now well over 2,000 pilots. We don’t need that many pilots. Why else would they overstaff, and why are they still hiring strong? 2 scenarios I can’t think of. Anticipated growth (DFW? &#128512, or anticipated need to staff AA. The method by which these things occur may surprise us. All I can say, is it’s going to be interesting the next few years, and exciting as well I believe for all of us working at the regional level right now.
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Old 11-15-2019, 03:32 AM
  #1162  
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Originally Posted by Throwitaway View Post
It's up to PSA management and how many pilots we can flow before we collapse due to staffing issues. AA wants more, PSA said we can only give you 10. I am a firm believer that our scheduling and crew planning is the biggest issue this company faces. The fact of the matter is that we're more so forcing upgrades out of necessity and not so much out of convenience.

New/prospective hires need to keep this in mind. When AA feels the full force of their ~1000/yr retirements starting next year, they can not just take ~800 pilots from their wholly owned affiliates, they are going to have to pull from ULCC/LCC/other regionals/part135. No one knows right now but to me the math of a significant flow increase doesn't add up for a sustainable regional business model. A prospective hire might have a better chance working for ANY regional for 2-3 years, hoping to say, frontier for 2-3 years, then landing a job at AA in 4-6 years. Beats the heck out of waiting for that 8-10 year flow through a wholly owned.

The quickest way to AA, or any mainline job, is not through the respective wholly-owned regional. When AA hires/flows one PSA CA, 3 training events are generated on the AA books — new-hire FO initial at AA, CA upgrade at PSA, and new-hire initial FO at PSA. They’d much rather poach pilots from another airline’s W/O and put them in a staffing/training bind.
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Old 11-15-2019, 04:09 AM
  #1163  
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Originally Posted by Jdj10 View Post
I feel that there is writing on the wall that shows us that increased flow is upon us. They have been hiring like crazy and we are now well over 2,000 pilots. We don’t need that many pilots. Why else would they overstaff, and why are they still hiring strong? 2 scenarios I can’t think of. Anticipated growth (DFW? &#128512, or anticipated need to staff AA. The method by which these things occur may surprise us. All I can say, is it’s going to be interesting the next few years, and exciting as well I believe for all of us working at the regional level right now.
*chanting from the back*
Staple, staple staple

One can dream

Originally Posted by deadstick35 View Post
The quickest way to AA, or any mainline job, is not through the respective wholly-owned regional. When AA hires/flows one PSA CA, 3 training events are generated on the AA books — new-hire FO initial at AA, CA upgrade at PSA, and new-hire initial FO at PSA. They’d much rather poach pilots from another airline’s W/O and put them in a staffing/training bind.
RI has said the opposite many times in public forums. As well as the shift toward, and discussion of AA classes being 50/50 flow and military. So unless you know someone it’ll all be about the same time. You’ll either flow at X years or get picked up just beforehand.
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Old 11-15-2019, 05:03 AM
  #1164  
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Only speaking for myself... obviously... if they don't increase the flow then I will be applying at our competitors.

I might not personally get picked up by big D, FE, UPS, United but I would be willing to bet I'm not the only one with my attitude.

PS - its not a threat per se, just a fact.
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Old 11-15-2019, 05:47 AM
  #1165  
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Originally Posted by Billy738 View Post
Ok so that’s over 10 years for a new hire then correct? Or maybe I did math wrong
2000 pilots / 120 flow per year = 16.6 years
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Old 11-15-2019, 06:38 AM
  #1166  
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Originally Posted by SkyKing2019 View Post
2000 pilots / 120 flow per year = 16.6 years
That's only if there's zero outside attrition. The latest screenshot of the data shows a new hire flowing in about 10.5 years.
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Old 11-15-2019, 07:47 AM
  #1167  
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Originally Posted by deadstick35 View Post
The quickest way to AA, or any mainline job, is not through the respective wholly-owned regional. When AA hires/flows one PSA CA, 3 training events are generated on the AA books — new-hire FO initial at AA, CA upgrade at PSA, and new-hire initial FO at PSA. They’d much rather poach pilots from another airline’s W/O and put them in a staffing/training bind.
Great, then we'll all be flying for Delta and United in no time! *all part of my little plan*

Use me as their pawn in a game to steal each others employees. Do it, I DARE THEM!!!!
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Old 11-15-2019, 09:43 AM
  #1168  
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Originally Posted by deadstick35 View Post
The quickest way to AA, or any mainline job, is not through the respective wholly-owned regional. When AA hires/flows one PSA CA, 3 training events are generated on the AA books — new-hire FO initial at AA, CA upgrade at PSA, and new-hire initial FO at PSA. They’d much rather poach pilots from another airline’s W/O and put them in a staffing/training bind.
If this were true, then can you explain all of the PSA pilots that were hired at AA this year outside of the flow?

AA has said that they will keep the flow's at all 3 WO's somewhere between 6 and 7 years. Anyone that even thinks for a minute that it will be 16+ years has no idea what is going on with the industry.
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Old 11-15-2019, 10:14 AM
  #1169  
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Originally Posted by Approach1260 View Post
That's only if there's zero outside attrition. The latest screenshot of the data shows a new hire flowing in about 10.5 years.
That’s just math with one set of assumptions. No one has any way to reliably predict it.
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Old 11-16-2019, 12:07 PM
  #1170  
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Originally Posted by Approach1260 View Post
That's only if there's zero outside attrition. The latest screenshot of the data shows a new hire flowing in about 10.5 years.
This is a lot higher then what recruiters are say!!!
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