Psa new hire
07-21-2021, 03:29 AM
#511
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
predicting the flow is a fools errand. What you are really asking is what is the overall state of airline industry hiring going to be for the next 6 to 12 years. Can anyone provide an example of that EVER having been successfully done?
Flow is great career insurance. Flow is career EMAS. Don’t want to be a regional lifer involuntarily? Flow means you won’t. It limits the possible downsides. It is not a plan for the upside. You should still apply just like everywhere else.
Flow is great career insurance. Flow is career EMAS. Don’t want to be a regional lifer involuntarily? Flow means you won’t. It limits the possible downsides. It is not a plan for the upside. You should still apply just like everywhere else.
07-21-2021, 04:39 AM
#512
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 2,427
Originally Posted by TransWorld
Sounds like someone divided the total pilots by 10 flowing per month to come up with that number. If that is the case, they assume zero hired outside of flow by AA or any other major. It also assumes no lifers. I understand that is the worst case, but that is not a realistic, most likely case.
Reading down, the quick takes says (from an older post, still there) that flow is 6-7 years! I really wish those that updated would do a better job of reconciling conflicting information.
Reading down, the quick takes says (from an older post, still there) that flow is 6-7 years! I really wish those that updated would do a better job of reconciling conflicting information.
07-21-2021, 05:04 AM
#513
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 4,599
The flow will likely be around 10-12 years for a new hire. So basically not worth sticking around for. In 2022 the percentage of off the street hires at AA will be greater than flow pilots. Just get your time, apply outside the flow if AA is your #1, and apply everywhere else too. Seniority is everything in this business.
07-21-2021, 07:00 AM
#514
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 371
Originally Posted by Swakid8
The guy that was in-charge of that data picked up his ladder......
I don't know about the "in-charge" part of the deal as it was totally a voluntary project on their part but apparently it was only a project worth pursuing if they got recognition for it or something since they quit doing it.
07-21-2021, 07:02 AM
#515
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 371
Originally Posted by ZeroTT
Flow is great career insurance. Flow is career EMAS. Don’t want to be a regional lifer involuntarily? Flow means you won’t. It limits the possible downsides. It is not a plan for the upside. You should still apply just like everywhere else.
07-21-2021, 07:22 AM
#516
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 2,427
Originally Posted by PleaseComplete
Yeah, apparently very sour grapes after not winning the council election.
I don't know about the "in-charge" part of the deal as it was totally a voluntary project on their part but apparently it was only a project worth pursuing if they got recognition for it or something since they quit doing it.
I don't know about the "in-charge" part of the deal as it was totally a voluntary project on their part but apparently it was only a project worth pursuing if they got recognition for it or something since they quit doing it.
07-21-2021, 08:11 AM
#518
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 371
Originally Posted by ZeroTT
Hard to see how flow would be 12 years. If you get hired at #1850 and AA takes 120/year, you only need attrition above you to average 40/year.
You should still use flow as Plan B, but I see 10 years as a reasonable outer limit
You should still use flow as Plan B, but I see 10 years as a reasonable outer limit
10 years is a reasonable INNER limit estimate.
07-21-2021, 08:42 AM
#519
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2018
Posts: 449
Originally Posted by Swakid8
It doesn’t surprise me based on my interactions with him when I was there. I offered to take the project on 2 years ago and he didn’t want to turn it over because he wanted a resume bullet. That told all I needed to know about his thought process. I wouldn’t have voted for him either if I was there for the vote.
07-21-2021, 08:44 AM
#520
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
Yeah I didn’t feel like deriving the combined linear/exponential equation for attrition above you.
but it comes back to predicting the overall major hiring environment. A range of reasonable assumptions yield wildly different outcomes
but it comes back to predicting the overall major hiring environment. A range of reasonable assumptions yield wildly different outcomes
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