It absolutely is correct. Tell me which 1500 CFI is applying to PSA first in that scenario. One that wants Dayton? PSA would get the bottom of the barrel.

Qualified vs competent candidates is not the same. I don’t know how big that gap is, because I’m not on the hiring team. What I do know is that I received multiple interviews at ATP mins, so I lean towards the idea that the supply vs demand isn’t as bad as we think.

If someone has intel from a hiring manager, I’m all ears.

 

The more fortunate applicants will go to the companies with better compensation and QOL. Being that supply of low time pilots exceeds demand, the rest will go where ever they can. They will have the choice of gaining 121 jet experience for much less compensation than other companies or remaining a CFI for even less pay until a better position becomes available. There will still be competition for the lower paying regional jobs. As far as the qualified vs competent argument, it will be the same pool of talent to draw from. If one regional lowered their compensation before the others, they would still draw from the same pool and have an abundance of qualified and competent applicants to easily fill classes.

 

I think you are fooling yourself. WHEN were you getting all these interviews? And how many CJOs came out if these interviews? In 2022 and 2023 the majors were hiring 12-13 THOUSAND pilots a year. The last two years they’ve been under 5000, and a couple thousand of those are NK furloughees and refugees, not regional guys. And if you look at the guys who ARE getting hired, their class dates can be as much as six months out.

in the last quarter century the average hiring has been less than 3600 annually. Once the last of the baby boomers retire it’ll settle down to about the same. It’s called “reversion to the mean.”

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We may not see another splurge if hiring like 2022-23 for another quarter century.

 

When I was in recurrent, I talked to a sim instructor who has been with PSA for 11 years, used to be an LCA. He said he heard unofficially we are keeping the premium rates because other regionals like Republic, and Endeavor have their pay rates in an actual CBA, not just an LOA. We are probably going to lose the soft pay stuff like CA pay for FO’s, and 6 year CA’s are going to lose top end pay scale. There is no way PSA is going to become the lowest paid regional. I have talked to many other people who are around management, and who are in the union. They all agree they would be shocked if we lost our pay rates. But it all just depends on the market.

 

Summer of 2025 and CJOs at all. All my coworkers had the same thing except at 1,500 when their mins were 1,000. They were all 2025.

I realize this is anecdotal evidence but it’s something.

 

Yep. The regionals had as much as half their aircraft parked for want of captains and senior FOs qualified and willing FOs to upgrade. They NEEDED people in early 2025 to staff those idle planes. . In early 2026, not so much.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/...161498.article

An excerpt:

 

What about the Regionals stated below forcing new hires to sign 5+ year contracts?

SkyWest, Republic, and I believe GoBlowJet aren’t having any issues finding talented pilots.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the pay rates decrease significantly when your current rates expire. You can get paid less at an AA WO with a guaranteed job at AA or sign a contract with the other regionals preventing you from being hired at a Legacy for years—Pick your poison.

 

there are thousands of 1500 hour CFIs that are perfectly qualified and can’t get interviews. It is somewhat random at this point. You will learn very quickly in this industry that your career and everything that happens on the way is mostly luck. Now, that’s not to say that you shouldn’t do everything in your power to position yourself to get lucky! If you don’t do everything you can to take advantage of that luck, you won’t get anywhere! But those who can’t get jobs are mostly just unlucky. They’ll get hired eventually, somewhere, but yeah, they’d work for just about any price to get 121 time and get closer to their career destination. $60/hr sounds great compared to most cfi gigs.

There is absolutely no doubt that the AA WO regionals could eliminate the pilot supply premium and revert to the contractual rates (a 33% pay cut) without having any staffing problems whatsoever. Will they? That remains to be seen. I think it’s 50/50. At least some changes in the company’s favor are highly likely. But they absolutely, positively could if they chose to with very limited negative effects. The most likely effect wouldn’t be them lagging the industry, but rather the others all racing to the bottom to join them. Regional contracts don’t mean anything when the majors threaten to take all your flying and send it to other regionals.

 

There. FIFY.

 

And if an AA wholly owned dropped their rates...those regionals with their pay "locked" into CBA's can't hire everybody looking for a job. And there will still be pilots happy to take the lower rates at an AA wholly owned in exchange for 121 employment.

I suspect mainline would revisit the flight hour rates they're paying their independent regional partners. Unless Skywest and Republic want to see all that flying go to the wholly owned carriers.