Which Regionals will survive a recession?
08-15-2018 | 08:06 PM
#31
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
Where I live, in a upper middle class suburb in the northern part of DFW, the unemployment rate is extremely low (my guess is 1%). When I go to the grocery store I get asked by the checkout clerk if I have a wife or teenagers that would like a job, $10 and up no experience needed. CVS across the street is starting at $12.
Both the grocery store and McDonalds have recently added self service kiosks. Cannot find enough to hire, have to make the customer do the work.
Most of the pizza places and the like have you order at the counter. No wait staff. Cannot find them.
There are people of work age in the suburb who are not interested in working. You would find it almost impossible to draw them into the workforce. Stay at home moms, early retirees who are financially set, full time students, teenagers who do not need to work as their parents pay for everything (that is the subject of a whole different rant).
Just a little perspective on Labor Force Participation rate.
Both the grocery store and McDonalds have recently added self service kiosks. Cannot find enough to hire, have to make the customer do the work.
Most of the pizza places and the like have you order at the counter. No wait staff. Cannot find them.
There are people of work age in the suburb who are not interested in working. You would find it almost impossible to draw them into the workforce. Stay at home moms, early retirees who are financially set, full time students, teenagers who do not need to work as their parents pay for everything (that is the subject of a whole different rant).
Just a little perspective on Labor Force Participation rate.
08-15-2018 | 08:30 PM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 6,248
Likes: 0
From: 767A (Ret)
08-15-2018 | 08:33 PM
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2016
Posts: 1,957
Likes: 0
Where I live, in a upper middle class suburb in the northern part of DFW, the unemployment rate is extremely low (my guess is 1%). When I go to the grocery store I get asked by the checkout clerk if I have a wife or teenagers that would like a job, $10 and up no experience needed. CVS across the street is starting at $12.
Both the grocery store and McDonalds have recently added self service kiosks. Cannot find enough to hire, have to make the customer do the work.
Most of the pizza places and the like have you order at the counter. No wait staff. Cannot find them.
There are people of work age in the suburb who are not interested in working. You would find it almost impossible to draw them into the workforce. Stay at home moms, early retirees who are financially set, full time students, teenagers who do not need to work as their parents pay for everything (that is the subject of a whole different rant).
Just a little perspective on Labor Force Participation rate.
Both the grocery store and McDonalds have recently added self service kiosks. Cannot find enough to hire, have to make the customer do the work.
Most of the pizza places and the like have you order at the counter. No wait staff. Cannot find them.
There are people of work age in the suburb who are not interested in working. You would find it almost impossible to draw them into the workforce. Stay at home moms, early retirees who are financially set, full time students, teenagers who do not need to work as their parents pay for everything (that is the subject of a whole different rant).
Just a little perspective on Labor Force Participation rate.
08-16-2018 | 02:15 AM
#34
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,116
Likes: 38
The current Labor Force Participation Rate is 62.9%. The record high was in 2000 at 67.3%. As a historical comparision, when they started keeping records in 1948 it was 58.6%. In 1980 it was 64.0%.
I looked up the definition of the population base the labor force participation rate is figured on. (Civilian Employed / this Population Base = Labor Force Participation Rate as a percentage).
If I read and understood it correctly, this Populaon Base is all from age 16-64. Included in this base are:
* Students not working
* Homemakers not working
* People in the Military (they are not civilian)
* People in Prison
* Drug Addicts not working
* Disabled and Handicapped not working (physical and mental)
* Etc.
* Early Retirees
* People who choose not to work/would not accept work for whatever reason
* Civilian Employed People (full and part time)
* People Unemployed but looking for work
* People Unemployed but Not looking for work (discouraged and any other reason)
I looked up the definition of the population base the labor force participation rate is figured on. (Civilian Employed / this Population Base = Labor Force Participation Rate as a percentage).
If I read and understood it correctly, this Populaon Base is all from age 16-64. Included in this base are:
* Students not working
* Homemakers not working
* People in the Military (they are not civilian)
* People in Prison
* Drug Addicts not working
* Disabled and Handicapped not working (physical and mental)
* Etc.
* Early Retirees
* People who choose not to work/would not accept work for whatever reason
* Civilian Employed People (full and part time)
* People Unemployed but looking for work
* People Unemployed but Not looking for work (discouraged and any other reason)
I understand it perfectly fine, thank you. I had a couple of the finer details incorrect. That doesn’t make my point any less valid that, aside from a few minor data points, we are at the lowest labor force participation over the last 40 years. It went up significantly in the 60s, leveled in the 70s, and declined until maybe 7-8 years ago. It has been pretty steady ever since.
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08-16-2018 | 03:16 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 200
Likes: 0
I understand it perfectly fine, thank you. I had a couple of the finer details incorrect. That doesn’t make my point any less valid that, aside from a few minor data points, we are at the lowest labor force participation over the last 40 years. It went up significantly in the 60s, leveled in the 70s, and declined until maybe 7-8 years ago. It has been pretty steady ever since.
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In all, of the 94.6 million not working, 87.1 million were retired, in school, taking care of a loved one or physically unable to work.
That leaves 7.5 million people. What about them?
Of those, 1.6 million had looked for a job in the past year or wanted a job but had given up searching for more than a year. And 5.9 million workers listed "other" as a reason for not wanting or having a job. We don't know much about these workers.
08-16-2018 | 04:49 AM
#36
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 45,150
Likes: 802
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Reading comprehension is hard. 
You put words into his mouth (incorrectly ) then told him exactly the same thing he just said in different words as your "truth". At least every day you mis-construe and then argue some inane point with somebody on here. You must be a real joy to fly with. Other then that I do agree that 100 million sounds a bit high for working age adults. You are right it includes retirees and children.
Google is so hard for arm chair pilot know it all's.. Literally the first result.
The truth. https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/10/new...rce/index.html.
From the article.
You put words into his mouth (incorrectly ) then told him exactly the same thing he just said in different words as your "truth". At least every day you mis-construe and then argue some inane point with somebody on here. You must be a real joy to fly with. Other then that I do agree that 100 million sounds a bit high for working age adults. You are right it includes retirees and children.Google is so hard for arm chair pilot know it all's.
. Literally the first result.The truth. https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/10/new...rce/index.html.
From the article.
Well yeah, that's why I called him out... he claimed 100M people involuntarily out of work, which is ludicrous.
I didn't bother to Google it, but my swag was pretty close to what you googled.
Sorry if your feelings got hurt.
08-16-2018 | 06:04 AM
#37
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,116
Likes: 38
Except those finer details does make your point less valid. Since you tried to make people believe that 100 million capable working age adults were no. When in fact it's closer to 7.5 million.
In all, of the 94.6 million not working, 87.1 million were retired, in school, taking care of a loved one or physically unable to work.
That leaves 7.5 million people. What about them?
Of those, 1.6 million had looked for a job in the past year or wanted a job but had given up searching for more than a year. And 5.9 million workers listed "other" as a reason for not wanting or having a job. We don't know much about these workers.
In all, of the 94.6 million not working, 87.1 million were retired, in school, taking care of a loved one or physically unable to work.
That leaves 7.5 million people. What about them?
Of those, 1.6 million had looked for a job in the past year or wanted a job but had given up searching for more than a year. And 5.9 million workers listed "other" as a reason for not wanting or having a job. We don't know much about these workers.
They are capable but unwilling to find work. Are you dense?
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08-16-2018 | 06:08 AM
#38
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Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,116
Likes: 38
Reading comprehension is quite the problem here, isn’t it? Never once did I say these people were involuntarily out of work.
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08-16-2018 | 06:15 AM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 692
Likes: 0
I didn’t want to set off a fire storm. You have people come on here and say that everything is great in my suburb, but it’s not reality for many places in the country from what I have seen where I’m at driving around. This really isn’t even political it’s been going on for decades. I just wanted to point out that they would have a large applicant pool willing to become pilots for free training.
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