Which Regionals will survive a recession?
08-15-2018, 02:24 PM
#21
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2018
Posts: 77
Originally Posted by Aviat0r
I'm about to start interviewing with the regionals. I'm figuring that there will be a recession in the next one to two years.
I hope I haven't missed the wave and I'm to late!
08-15-2018, 02:58 PM
#22
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,211
Originally Posted by sflpilot
If free ab intio programs were put into place I don’t think there would ever be an end to it. The cost of flight training is the main barrier for potential applicants. I was reading something recently about how 50% of the US population makes less than $27,000 a year. We also have a population of 325 million with 100 million of that out of the workforce. They changed the way they calculate the unemployment numbers back in the 90s to only reflect those that are currently collecting unemployment benefits. I didn’t used to think this way but I believe there are tons of people out there in not so good situations that would gladly get in line to be an airline pilot as long as it doesn’t cost them anything.
I think the actual unemployment rate is pretty low right now... most people who want a job can get one, although they might have to move out of some ex-industrial backwater. If they're waiting for the steel mill to re-open, might be a long wait.
08-15-2018, 03:06 PM
#23
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Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,211
Originally Posted by mcnitchell
Why are you figuring there will be a recession in the next two years? I am also considering applying for the regionals (Skywest or Compass in particular). I currently have a comfy desk job in the LA area making a good living and a great schedule. I left the airlines 14 years ago after everything went downhill post 9-11. I stayed current, flying GA, and still have my CFI. But that desire to go back to the 121 world has never left me. My wife (and 3 kids) are on board as well, since we've been discussing it for a year. We've been looking to get out of California, and this was our planned exit.
I hope I haven't missed the wave and I'm to late!
I hope I haven't missed the wave and I'm to late!
The economy might just overheat and mush out for a while if nothing else happens. There's always the possibility of war or some sort of "black swan" event (ie 9/11) that might trigger a more significant downturn.
Baring a big catastrophe, I suspect the retirement numbers will mostly mitigate the effects of any slowdown on pilot career progression. You might stagnate somewhere for a couple years but that's probably the worst of it.
Yes the economy is humming along, but it's not showing signs of ridiculous exuberance.
My neighbor, who does residential real estate, noted a new paradigm.
In 2005, people were desperate to get on the speculative escalator before it left them behind.
Today, they are far more reluctant to buy expensive property, mostly only doing it for lifestyle reasons and only if they can afford it, not because they expect a windfall.
08-15-2018, 04:22 PM
#24
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,480
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Yes the economy is humming along, but it's not showing signs of ridiculous exuberance.
My neighbor, who does residential real estate, noted a new paradigm.
In 2005, people were desperate to get on the speculative escalator before it left them behind.
Today, they are far more reluctant to buy expensive property, mostly only doing it for lifestyle reasons and only if they can afford it, not because they expect a windfall.
08-15-2018, 05:42 PM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,582
Originally Posted by sflpilot
If free ab intio programs were put into place I don’t think there would ever be an end to it. The cost of flight training is the main barrier for potential applicants. I was reading something recently about how 50% of the US population makes less than $27,000 a year. We also have a population of 325 million with 100 million of that out of the workforce. They changed the way they calculate the unemployment numbers back in the 90s to only reflect those that are currently collecting unemployment benefits. I didn’t used to think this way but I believe there are tons of people out there in not so good situations that would gladly get in line to be an airline pilot as long as it doesn’t cost them anything.
08-15-2018, 05:42 PM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,022
Originally Posted by rickair7777
100 million out of work? Yeah, probably. Children, students, retirees, housewives, kept women, slackers, trust fund babies, etc. Do illegals count?
I think the actual unemployment rate is pretty low right now... most people who want a job can get one, although they might have to move out of some ex-industrial backwater. If they're waiting for the steel mill to re-open, might be a long wait.
I think the actual unemployment rate is pretty low right now... most people who want a job can get one, although they might have to move out of some ex-industrial backwater. If they're waiting for the steel mill to re-open, might be a long wait.
You don’t know much about basic Econ then do you? The unemployment rate and labor participation rate are two different things. Unemployment, like explained above, only shows those employed or looking for work. Labor force participation shows those that are able to work even if they aren’t looking as well as what is shown in the unemployment rate. Yes it truly is about 100 Million people that are able to work but currently are not even looking for work. Not kids. Not retirees. Not disabled. If I remember correctly, 18-64 y/o.
The unemployment rate is very low, but so is the labor force participation rate. We should actually see the unemployment rate tick up whenever wages start to tick up. This should show more people entering/reentering the workforce to look for a job.
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08-15-2018, 05:44 PM
#27
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Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,582
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Yeah. Today the real estate investors seem to be more interested in finding something ridiculously dated but cheap that they can buy, rehab with mostly sweat equity, then use as a rental.
08-15-2018, 06:16 PM
#28
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,211
Originally Posted by 4V14T0R
You don’t know much about basic Econ then do you? The unemployment rate and labor participation rate are two different things. Unemployment, like explained above, only shows those employed or looking for work. Labor force participation shows those that are able to work even if they aren’t looking as well as what is shown in the unemployment rate. Yes it truly is about 100 Million people that are able to work but currently are not even looking for work. Not kids. Not retirees. Not disabled. If I remember correctly, 18-64 y/o.
The unemployment rate is very low, but so is the labor force participation rate. We should actually see the unemployment rate tick up whenever wages start to tick up. This should show more people entering/reentering the workforce to look for a job.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The unemployment rate is very low, but so is the labor force participation rate. We should actually see the unemployment rate tick up whenever wages start to tick up. This should show more people entering/reentering the workforce to look for a job.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If I wasn't clear before, I don't think there are 100 million people in this country who would like to work but cannot. There could easily be 100 million who don't because they chose to do other things... independently wealthy/retired, student, stay home with kids, whatever.
If you're talking working age adults, 100M is a very large percentage of working age adults. Rough estimate there are at least 100M kids/students + retirees in this country. So you're saying almost 50% of working age adults can't find work??? You're full of BS.
08-15-2018, 07:07 PM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2017
Posts: 200
Originally Posted by rickair7777
I know plenty about it, but even so it's still mostly voodoo so I for one don't claim any predictive value.
If I wasn't clear before, I don't think there are 100 million people in this country who would like to work but cannot. There could easily be 100 million who don't because they chose to do other things... independently wealthy/retired, student, stay home with kids, whatever.
If you're talking working age adults, 100M is a very large percentage of working age adults. Rough estimate there are at least 100M kids/students + retirees in this country. So you're saying almost 50% of working age adults can't find work??? You're full of BS.
If I wasn't clear before, I don't think there are 100 million people in this country who would like to work but cannot. There could easily be 100 million who don't because they chose to do other things... independently wealthy/retired, student, stay home with kids, whatever.
If you're talking working age adults, 100M is a very large percentage of working age adults. Rough estimate there are at least 100M kids/students + retirees in this country. So you're saying almost 50% of working age adults can't find work??? You're full of BS.
You put words into his mouth (incorrectly ) then told him exactly the same thing he just said in different words as your "truth". At least every day you mis-construe and then argue some inane point with somebody on here. You must be a real joy to fly with. Other then that I do agree that 100 million sounds a bit high for working age adults. You are right it includes retirees and children.Google is so hard for arm chair pilot know it all's.
. Literally the first result.The truth. https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/10/news/economy/95-million-out-of-workforce/index.html.
From the article.
-- 94.6 million people above the age of 16 were out of the workforce.
Of those:
-- 44.5 million were retired.
-- 14.5 million were in school or job training.
-- 12.8 million were taking care of a loved one.
-- 15.3 million weren't working because of an illness or disability.
In all, of the 94.6 million not working, 87.1 million were retired, in school, taking care of a loved one or physically unable to work.
That leaves 7.5 million people. What about them?
Of those, 1.6 million had looked for a job in the past year or wanted a job but had given up searching for more than a year. And 5.9 million workers listed "other" as a reason for not wanting or having a job. We don't know much about these workers.
Of those:
-- 44.5 million were retired.
-- 14.5 million were in school or job training.
-- 12.8 million were taking care of a loved one.
-- 15.3 million weren't working because of an illness or disability.
In all, of the 94.6 million not working, 87.1 million were retired, in school, taking care of a loved one or physically unable to work.
That leaves 7.5 million people. What about them?
Of those, 1.6 million had looked for a job in the past year or wanted a job but had given up searching for more than a year. And 5.9 million workers listed "other" as a reason for not wanting or having a job. We don't know much about these workers.
Last edited by Fleet Warp; 08-15-2018 at 07:41 PM.
08-15-2018, 07:34 PM
#30
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,929
Originally Posted by 4V14T0R
You don’t know much about basic Econ then do you? The unemployment rate and labor participation rate are two different things. Unemployment, like explained above, only shows those employed or looking for work. Labor force participation shows those that are able to work even if they aren’t looking as well as what is shown in the unemployment rate. Yes it truly is about 100 Million people that are able to work but currently are not even looking for work. Not kids. Not retirees. Not disabled. If I remember correctly, 18-64 y/o.
The unemployment rate is very low, but so is the labor force participation rate. We should actually see the unemployment rate tick up whenever wages start to tick up. This should show more people entering/reentering the workforce to look for a job.
The unemployment rate is very low, but so is the labor force participation rate. We should actually see the unemployment rate tick up whenever wages start to tick up. This should show more people entering/reentering the workforce to look for a job.
I looked up the definition of the population base the labor force participation rate is figured on. (Civilian Employed / this Population Base = Labor Force Participation Rate as a percentage).
If I read and understood it correctly, this Populaon Base is all from age 16-64. Included in this base are:
* Students not working
* Homemakers not working
* People in the Military (they are not civilian)
* People in Prison
* Drug Addicts not working
* Disabled and Handicapped not working (physical and mental)
* Etc.
* Early Retirees
* People who choose not to work/would not accept work for whatever reason
* Civilian Employed People (full and part time)
* People Unemployed but looking for work
* People Unemployed but Not looking for work (discouraged and any other reason)
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