TransWorld

Whipsawing is appropriate with the old environment. One where there are plenty of pilots and you can play one regional against the other.

In the next few years there will be such a shortage the majors will want to hold their regionals tightly. If they play whipsaw, the regional they reduce many never get enough pilots back next time you want to play whipsaw.

Whole different way of thinking will be required.

Soxfan1

Air Wisconsin has survived 7 recessions in its 53 year history. Yet they will most likely not appear on anyone’s short list on this thread. And maybe they shouldn’t.

My point is I agree that the current total amount of regionals, total aircraft in said regionals and total regionals pilots will go down over the next 5-7 years but to predict who will survive and who won’t based on today’s flavor of the month is impossible. Just go back 5-7 years or 5-7 before that. Would ASA, ACA, Comair or Expressjet be on these shortlist’s? I bet they would.

Pick your regional today not on the future but on the now. Look at pay. Work rules. Bases. QOL. Upgrade times. Flows. Figure out the importance of each and you have your answer. If your pick is gone in three years well you got 3500 total with 2000 121 hours with maybe 1000 121 turbine PIC. Even in all but the worst of times you could get another regional job with those numbers. In the mean time you had a good QOL for the past 3 years.

And if your pick is still there that means times are good and with those numbers you should be competive at all LCCs and if the trend continues - legacies as well.

Fleet Warp

I predict that the regionals that still exist in 5 years will be the ones without a fatal accident. As for the rest, even if they don't exist in name the pilots and airplanes will still exist under someone else's name after a M&A. And this.

domino

Another thing to look at is how big are these regionals. For example, Skywest will survive. But when this next recession hits, all the majors will be putting the skids on and that will affect the regionals. Skywest has a lot of pilots that might be in trouble when the next big recession hits shortly. And the “they’ve never foroughed before” argument won’t fly this time. Different times.

WesternSkies

At least people will stop asking “how long until I can hold a line”.

Also at this point regionals could start branded flying selling code shares.
They can’t be replaced.

Excargodog

I predict that - barring a really severe recession or oil price shock - the current crop of regional pilots are going to be fine. The regional pilots acceptable to the majors will soon move on, their careers buoyed by the wave of age-related mandatory requirements coming. The regional pilots NOT acceptable by by the majors for whatever reason (inadequate education, DUIs, training busts, embarrassing tattoos in non-concealable areas, etc) will either find employment with some ULCC or become so senior at their regional they will be bulletproof.

Those in trouble will be those only now starting to get their ratings, convinced that the current good climate for career progression will last forever. Even sponsored ab initio people, should that actually happen, are at risk for their programs coming to a screeching halt when progression disappears for a half decade.

rickair7777

Yes, majors have learned this lesson. They tried consolidated WO's, with mesa the bogeyman in the shadows to keep the cost pressure on but it didn't work.

rickair7777

Yes, this is a very real factor and one of the reasons regionals exist. Allows the majors to enjoy some lower costs associated with less experienced labor and still have a layer of brand insulation which can be shed when necessary to protect the real brand.

chrisreedrules

Here’s my wild predictions:

AAG buys Mesa and in 5 years Mesa / PSA merge and Envoy / Piedmont are merged. 90% of the American Eagle regional flying will be done by these 2 WOs and the only civilians that make it to AA go through them.

RAH buys the TSH regionals and they are all folded into Republic.

SkyWest grows for now but will begin to retract within the next 5 years.

Endeavor continues to grow their Delta Connection feed and will likely eventually get some sort of no-interview flow with a couple strings attached (ie degree required etc)

Horizon keeps on flying for Alaska and ends up with a better flow deal.

There will be some sort of consolidation of the United Airlines regionals. United will likely have to figure out how to purchase a regional or two to secure their regional feed long-term as both American and Delta slowly shift towards consolidation and in-house flying with their regionals. Air Wisconsin may play a part in this somehow.

Overall I think that the supply of pilots willing to fly at the regionals will find a balancing point. Right now I hesitate to even call it a shortage since everyone is still managing to fill classes for the most part. More a, “squeeze” on the pilot supply than anything else. I think though that once the legacies start pouring more money and support into the pipeline at the entry-levels this will slowly work itself out. I don’t think a true shortage exists. But I think the industry is going to go through a period of intense change over the next 5 years.

sflpilot

If free ab intio programs were put into place I don’t think there would ever be an end to it. The cost of flight training is the main barrier for potential applicants. I was reading something recently about how 50% of the US population makes less than $27,000 a year. We also have a population of 325 million with 100 million of that out of the workforce. They changed the way they calculate the unemployment numbers back in the 90s to only reflect those that are currently collecting unemployment benefits. I didn’t used to think this way but I believe there are tons of people out there in not so good situations that would gladly get in line to be an airline pilot as long as it doesn’t cost them anything.