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Jecain7 04-15-2019 02:33 PM


Originally Posted by rld1k (Post 2803255)
Then why don't you change all the recruiting literature to stop advertising 5-6 yr flow?

If you look at their page on here it says 8-8.5 year flow..

dera 04-15-2019 02:36 PM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2803567)
It currently is a pay shortage. In a few years it becomes a physical shortage. Basic math.

Either way, the end result is a shortage of pilots.

The only thing that can prevent the shortage in the next few years is a black swan 9/11 style event. Then the airlines could retire to shrink without needing new pilots to replace the old ones.

I think the 91/135 sector will be worst off.
Lots of corporate flight depts will close, because they just can't pay the money ATP rated pilots will want, when legacies start hiring at 100%.

Cujo665 04-15-2019 04:02 PM


Originally Posted by dera (Post 2803572)
The only thing that can prevent the shortage in the next few years is a black swan 9/11 style event. Then the airlines could retire to shrink without needing new pilots to replace the old ones.

I think the 91/135 sector will be worst off.
Lots of corporate flight depts will close, because they just can't pay the money ATP rated pilots will want, when legacies start hiring at 100%.

For once we agree.
I’ll add that you’ll see fantastic work rule improvements outside of 121 scheduled passenger service. It’s already happening with positive space to/from work. Hotels, never a crashpad. Totally free benefits company paid.
1 small regional is already offering home basing and positive space tickets, and no crashpads. It will eventually become expected as the shortage deepens.

UncreativeUser 04-15-2019 05:18 PM


Originally Posted by at6d (Post 2803399)
Never trust a flow agreement.



Why not?


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C37AFE 04-15-2019 05:45 PM


Originally Posted by UncreativeUser (Post 2803645)
Why not?


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I don’t trust my wiz to flow straight and I have control over that

word302 04-16-2019 04:57 AM


Originally Posted by UncreativeUser (Post 2803645)
Why not?


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Because history

4V14T0R 04-16-2019 05:16 AM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2803563)
It’s an LCC, and his question was for flow to a major.
That’s
AA, Delta, United, Fedex, UPS (all global airlines)

LCC
Southwest (just got ETOPS, an almost major, kinda in the middle)
JetBlue
Spirit
Frontier
Allegiant
Sun Country



No a major is actually defined by revenue. It has been redefined in some respect as a 121 jet carrier where the paint matched the name on the paycheck. All those LCCs are majors, just not the same tier as one another.


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rickair7777 04-16-2019 09:09 AM


Originally Posted by 4V14T0R (Post 2803788)
No a major is actually defined by revenue. It has been redefined in some respect as a 121 jet carrier where the paint matched the name on the paycheck. All those LCCs are majors, just not the same tier as one another.


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The federal government definition of a major is by revenue, X billion $.

The industry itself considers majors to operate at least some NB aircraft, sell tickets, and operate under their own brand.

Legacies did interstate air service prior to deregulation. They use a hub and spoke model, to one degree or another.

Most regionals are actually FFD, flying in some legacies paint. There are few small branded commuters left.

The APC airline profiles reflect the "industry standard" definitions. We don't try to distinguish between national, LCC, ULCC as that is somewhat in the eye of the beholder.

Cujo665 04-16-2019 10:03 AM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 2803887)
The federal government definition of a major is by revenue, X billion $.

The industry itself considers majors to operate at least some NB aircraft, sell tickets, and operate under their own brand.

Legacies did interstate air service prior to deregulation. They use a hub and spoke model, to one degree or another.

Most regionals are actually FFD, flying in some legacies paint. There are few small branded commuters left.

The APC airline profiles reflect the "industry standard" definitions. We don't try to distinguish between national, LCC, ULCC as that is somewhat in the eye of the beholder.


Agreed. If it were just revenue, many ACMI carriers would be listed as major airlines.

Likewise, simply flying the same size aircraft does not a major airline make.

All of the legacy/major airlines are global airlines.

An LCC that does a few Mexico, South America, or similar destinations is not a global major airline

We have
legacy/major
National / LCC
Regional
ACMI (can’t say cargo, since there are passenger only ACMI)

A Frontier, Spirit, Allegiant, Sun Country and the rest of the National LCC’s are not legacy or major airlines.

An example. People still run to leave a Frontier, Allegiant or Spirit when a Delta, United or American calls....
they just aren’t the same category carrier.

word302 04-16-2019 11:50 AM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2803909)
Agreed. If it were just revenue, many ACMI carriers would be listed as major airlines.

Likewise, simply flying the same size aircraft does not a major airline make.

All of the legacy/major airlines are global airlines.

An LCC that does a few Mexico, South America, or similar destinations is not a global major airline

We have
legacy/major
National / LCC
Regional
ACMI (can’t say cargo, since there are passenger only ACMI)

A Frontier, Spirit, Allegiant, Sun Country and the rest of the National LCC’s are not legacy or major airlines.

An example. People still run to leave a Frontier, Allegiant or Spirit when a Delta, United or American calls....
they just aren’t the same category carrier.

Meh. Pretty hard to find a Spirit pilot with plans to leave or even apps out.


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