Originally Posted by Duffman

Well, my fiance is an epidemiologist otherwise I probably wouldn't have known to take this so seriously.

Originally Posted by OpMidClimax

Ahh . You got the inside track..

Originally Posted by RAHkid94

Any reasonable person that read the reports out of China started worrying about this in February. I was ready to hunker down 3 weeks ago. It blows my mind that we’re just now taking this seriously. All the signs and data were out there that this was not another flu and not another scare. People just refused to believe until it was at the door.

Originally Posted by OpMidClimax

Germany is doing a very good job at preventing penetration.

Originally Posted by OpMidClimax

Ahh . You got the inside track..

Originally Posted by OpMidClimax

I think it gets muddy with the politics..

Originally Posted by Duffman

Yeah, she's way smarter than me, so it's probably good info. If it came from me it'd definitely be speculative conjecture at best.




It definitely does, but it makes sense to me. Industry is hoping, pushing, and trying to force 'best-case scenarios' that they can report in earnings reports rather than looking at things realistically, and they've got a lot of money to throw around in Washington. When was the last time you gave money to a lobbyist to push your views? But, that's just BS conjecture without any citations, based on my personal world-view.

Originally Posted by Duffman

WTF are you talking about? All that article says is that a vaccine would actually work and be a profitable long term endeavor, and it's most likely at least a year away if there aren't any setbacks. Pandemics spread like wildfire unless they're contained. If they can't be contained then they only "die out" when there's a herd immunity because most people have gotten it and survived. 2% fatality rate WITH PROPER HEALTHCARE. Italy's hospitals got overrun and their mortality rate went to approximately 10%: https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...y-ratio-2020-3

And apparently they just aren't treating people over 60 because they don't have the resources:

https://www.jpost.com/International/...over-60-621856

About 20% need hospital care to survive. To put these numbers in perspective, 2% of the US population is 6.6 million people and 20% is 66 million. There are like 160k ventilators in the US. To get "herd immunity" with a Ro around 2, it looks like roughly half the population needs to get the virus.

What is herd immunity and how many people need to be vaccinated to protect a community?

So that's 3.3 million (2%) to 33 million dead (20% from lack of medical care) likely long before a vaccine ever comes out in the best-case scenario. There's no way in hell over 3 million people will die from suicide or sleeping on the streets because of a financial depression. Granted, people probably will practice social distancing and take steps to avoid the spread of the virus on their own, especially when the death count starts really ticking up, which would probably bring down the total cases, but we're talking about a lot of lives from every age group and I'm pretty sure that many dead people would also negatively impact the stock market.

Originally Posted by nate5ks

So what's your solution, continue into economic abyss and ignore the consequences of that in the name of healthcare? Could easily cause more problems than it solves. Let's talk in a couple of weeks and see how those numbers have changed. People on here seem to be okay with going through a depression, to me that is mind boggling.

Originally Posted by RAHkid94

it’s mind boggling that people are willing to sacrifice 2-4 million Americans to avoid bad economic waters that we would endure through like we have dozens of times before.

Originally Posted by nate5ks

You really think this will be just like any other recession if we keep this up much longer? I guess it'll all be okay, if the govt passes $2trillion stimulus bills every month we all keep getting checks in the mail. Oh wait, they can't even agree on one.