Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat

I really wonder how this is going to effect future pilot supply.

The young pup deciding not to get into it at all.

The young person pulling out of their training now and never finishing.

The 32 year old who just did 9 years in a regional only to be left behind the wave after her regional goes out of business........but has finished their degree and is marketable elsewhere.

The 41 year old mil guy who dipped his toe, got burnt and then went back to service.....or onto bigger and better things.

The 50 year old that has just 'had enough' after finally leaving a regional only to be the first to be furloughed in his new major gig.

The 55 year old who convinced his wife it was a great idea to leave his well paying job as an accountant to go to a regional to chase his dream........only to be furloughed.....

The 62 year old who is offered an early out....

Those demographics all add up.

Originally Posted by Rightup

if there is one thing about this industry, it’s that a “pilot shortage” is just around the corner until whatever black swan of the decade stops it.

Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat

I think its coming.... Look at the lost decade....and now this....big pilot excess.....lotsa people out of work....so they go back to their real job. Its a big slow wave that is too slow for us mere mortals to percieve. And when its here its too late.

Originally Posted by wrxpilot

Good point. Theft and dishonesty will get you immediately fired at most airlines.

Originally Posted by hindsight2020

Isn't that a distinction without difference for an overstaffed airline?

Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat

I think its coming.... Look at the lost decade....and now this....big pilot excess.....lotsa people out of work....so they go back to their real job. Its a big slow wave that is too slow for us mere mortals to percieve. And when its here its too late.

Originally Posted by Bahamasflyer

I'm a tail end Gen X guy and I can't tell you how glad I am that I NEVER HAD KIDS! Doubly so amidst this COVID-19 chaos when I see what a mess it is with so many of my friends kids being out of school. I can't tell you how nice it is to walk into a quiet home after a 4 day trip.

Honest to God, I sleep soooo well at night knowing that I only have myself to worry about when I hit the street in 3 months, and not kids or a wife. Best decision I ever made.

I bet there will be a baby bust after the dust settles with COVID. Seems I'm far from the only one who believes that.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/h...vid-baby-bust/

Originally Posted by APCHCLIMB

You talk to some of the old timers and they’ll tell you there was supposed to be a pilot shortage in the early 90s when some of them first got on.