Lost decade 2.0?
08-01-2020, 10:56 AM
#51
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Posts: 746
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Zoom is useful to maintain and extend ESTABLISHED relationships. It's no good for building new relationships, or dealing with relationship crises (ie troubleshooting). It will work for a while but not forever... eventually salesmen need to make calls, managers need to visit remote operations, and eventually workgroups will want their team-building retreats again.
For some business travels (the road warriors) travel is part of the grind. For many others, it's actually a reward to go to a convention, conference, or retreat.
I'd actually be more worried if I was in commercial real estate right now. I could see an evolving scenario where some business go mostly remote and maintain smaller office spaces for necessary in-person meetings, and simply rent facilities for all hands assembly type events. but that depends on the nature of the work and the nature of the employees. Data entry drudge-work vice complex project management? Low wage/low motivation staff vs. highly educated and credentialed professionals?
For some business travels (the road warriors) travel is part of the grind. For many others, it's actually a reward to go to a convention, conference, or retreat.
I'd actually be more worried if I was in commercial real estate right now. I could see an evolving scenario where some business go mostly remote and maintain smaller office spaces for necessary in-person meetings, and simply rent facilities for all hands assembly type events. but that depends on the nature of the work and the nature of the employees. Data entry drudge-work vice complex project management? Low wage/low motivation staff vs. highly educated and credentialed professionals?
UPS is establishing new relationships with their new hires via ZOOM. There is currently a mass exodus from large cities because companies have realized that they don't need people in the office m-f 8-5. Google, Amazon, and others have given their employees the ability to work from home on a permanent basis. The trend is so significant that it can be felt in the residential real estate market with prices in suburbs on the rise and falling in the city centers.
08-01-2020, 11:56 AM
#52
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 3,595
Originally Posted by Joachim
There is currently a mass exodus from large cities because companies have realized that they don't need people in the office m-f 8-5..... The trend is so significant that it can be felt in the residential real estate market with prices in suburbs on the rise and falling in the city centers.
08-01-2020, 01:11 PM
#53
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,222
Originally Posted by rickair7777
The lost decade was worse, at least based on what we know right now. COVID is a single discrete event, and while it's deeper and uglier at face value it has a likely discrete end-point (vaccine). We will also not be fighting trillion-dollar wars over covid for the next 20 years (hopefully).
The lost decade was a combination 9/11, SARS, 2008 downturn + sky-high oil prices, and to top it all off age 65. Also what a lot of people don't realize is that on 9/11/2001 the industry still carried a lot of pre-deregulation fat... that all got trimmed during the lost decade.
If it hadn't been for age 65 it would have been the lost half-decade. It's unlikely they'll raise the age again, especially now, and even if they do it would only be 67 (there's international precedent for that).
Baring any other black-swans, and still considering (now accelerated) retirements I suspect things will be back on track sooner than many folks might think. Five years of little or no hiring is a pretty typical of industry cycles, even though it may be a big wakeup call for the younger crowd (Congrats, you've had your cherry popped by the industry
)
Even if the big three are down longer-term, there will still be some opportunity in cargo and LCC, and those are still good livings by most standards. Also this is going to scare off a bunch of new entrants, so there will be opportunity for those who stick it out (I've seen that movie before too).
The lost decade was a combination 9/11, SARS, 2008 downturn + sky-high oil prices, and to top it all off age 65. Also what a lot of people don't realize is that on 9/11/2001 the industry still carried a lot of pre-deregulation fat... that all got trimmed during the lost decade.
If it hadn't been for age 65 it would have been the lost half-decade. It's unlikely they'll raise the age again, especially now, and even if they do it would only be 67 (there's international precedent for that).
Baring any other black-swans, and still considering (now accelerated) retirements I suspect things will be back on track sooner than many folks might think. Five years of little or no hiring is a pretty typical of industry cycles, even though it may be a big wakeup call for the younger crowd (Congrats, you've had your cherry popped by the industry
)Even if the big three are down longer-term, there will still be some opportunity in cargo and LCC, and those are still good livings by most standards. Also this is going to scare off a bunch of new entrants, so there will be opportunity for those who stick it out (I've seen that movie before too).
Pre, and post 9/11, airline management strategy was also way off the mark. Atleast in the current situation, the airlines had a very good business model, the correct aircraft on the a given route. Basically the airlines were being pretty well run entering this. Once the silver bullet is announced (vaccine), I'd expect a pretty healthy uptick in passenger traffic.
08-01-2020, 02:26 PM
#54
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,503
Originally Posted by 05Duramax
Do you know how much of the non Airbus company footprint is in actual Seattle? Like almost none. Nice job pushing your political agenda though.
The Boeing Company's Renton, Washington Factory is a facility where Boeing 737 Next Generation and Boeing 737 MAX airliners are built.[1] Current production includes the 737-700, 737-800, 737-900ER, 737 MAX 7, 737 MAX 8, 737 MAX 9, and 737 MAX 10 models. The floor space covered is 1.1 million square feet (102,000 square meters).[2]
The Boeing Everett Factory, in Everett, Washington, is an airplane assembly building owned by Boeing. Located on the north-east corner of Paine Field, it is the largest building in the world by volume at 13,385,378 m3 (472,370,319 cu ft) and covers 399,480 m2 (98.7 acres; 39.948 hectares; 0.399 square kilometres). This is the factory where the wide-body Boeing 747, 767, 777, and 787 are assembled
Boeing Company
The Boeing Company has facilities at KBFI. Final preparations for delivery of Boeing 737 aircraft after the first test flight are made at Boeing Field.[7] Boeing facilities at the airport have also included a paint hangar[8] and flight test facilities.[9] The initial assembly of the 737 was at Boeing Field in the 1960s because the factory in Renton was at capacity building the Boeing 707and Boeing 727. After 271 aircraft, production moved to Renton in late 1970.[10][11] Production of military airborne early warning and control aircraft based on the 737, such as Project Wedgetail (Australia) aircraft and Peace Eagle (Turkey) aircraft is located at Boeing Field.[12]
Boeing has released a report called “Boeing in Washington by the Numbers,” which is a concise look at the company’s contributions and impact to the Puget Sound area over the past year.
“This report is just a snapshot of Boeing’s deep commitment to its people, and local partners,” said Bill McSherry, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of Government Operations. “As the state’s largest private employer, we are proud to call Washington our home, and are honored to tell the story of Boeing’s dedication to education, veterans, diversity and inclusion. With immense facilities and investments from Everett to Renton to Frederickson and many points in between, we are proud of the profound and positive impact we are able to have in the Puget Sound.”
Highlights from 2018 include:
“This report is just a snapshot of Boeing’s deep commitment to its people, and local partners,” said Bill McSherry, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of Government Operations. “As the state’s largest private employer, we are proud to call Washington our home, and are honored to tell the story of Boeing’s dedication to education, veterans, diversity and inclusion. With immense facilities and investments from Everett to Renton to Frederickson and many points in between, we are proud of the profound and positive impact we are able to have in the Puget Sound.”
Highlights from 2018 include:
- Nearly half of Boeing’s global workforce is located in Washington, making Boeing the state’s largest private employer.
- Boeing’s Washington payroll was more than $8 billion, with the average 2018 wage more than $99,000.
- Boeing invested $2.5 million in environmental organizations to support stormwater and reforestation projects in 2018.
- More than 7,000 service members, veterans and spouses will receive workforce transition services from Boeing-supported programs.
- More than 800 college and high school interns and apprentices were employed at Boeing’s Washington sites in 2018.
08-01-2020, 02:54 PM
#55
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2012
Posts: 76
Originally Posted by 05Duramax
Do you know how much of the non Airbus company footprint is in actual Seattle? Like almost none. Nice job pushing your political agenda though.
yeah I going to have to pull the BS card on you for this one..... you actually know nothing about this.
08-01-2020, 03:04 PM
#56
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2011
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 847
Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
I have not heard this before and would like to read more about it. Do you have any links or citations?
08-01-2020, 03:16 PM
#57
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Zoom is useful to maintain and extend ESTABLISHED relationships. It's no good for building new relationships, or dealing with relationship crises (ie troubleshooting). It will work for a while but not forever... eventually salesmen need to make calls, managers need to visit remote operations, and eventually workgroups will want their team-building retreats again.
For some business travels (the road warriors) travel is part of the grind. For many others, it's actually a reward to go to a convention, conference, or retreat.
I'd actually be more worried if I was in commercial real estate right now. I could see an evolving scenario where some business go mostly remote and maintain smaller office spaces for necessary in-person meetings, and simply rent facilities for all hands assembly type events. but that depends on the nature of the work and the nature of the employees. Data entry drudge-work vice complex project management? Low wage/low motivation staff vs. highly educated and credentialed professionals?
For some business travels (the road warriors) travel is part of the grind. For many others, it's actually a reward to go to a convention, conference, or retreat.
I'd actually be more worried if I was in commercial real estate right now. I could see an evolving scenario where some business go mostly remote and maintain smaller office spaces for necessary in-person meetings, and simply rent facilities for all hands assembly type events. but that depends on the nature of the work and the nature of the employees. Data entry drudge-work vice complex project management? Low wage/low motivation staff vs. highly educated and credentialed professionals?
Among DoD leadership, eyes are now wide open to value of telework
https://federalnewsnetwork.com/dod-r...e-of-telework/
“We really shattered the myth that you can’t do any work at DoD via a telework situation,” Lisa Hershman, DoD’s chief management officer said.
The Pentagon’s old excuse for restricting telework was that people needed access to classified information and those people need to be on secure networks to tap into it.
“What we learned very quickly was that not everyone works with classified information, and even those that do, it’s not 100% of the time,” Hershman said. “We have started to relook at what is the mix, if we look at certain positions and the position descriptions, how much of it is feasible to do in a telework situation?”
Hershman has experts on her team examining how often people need to be in the office and talking to employees to see what their prime balance of telework and in-person work entails.
“We found in some situations, especially highly transactional work, employees were more productive,” she said. “In one instance, in Washington Headquarters Services, we had an individual that was 30% more productive. When we asked why they indicated a lot fewer interruptions and a lot fewer meetings that they have to attend. We’re learning from that and capturing that information.”
Chief of Navy Personnel Vice Adm. John Nowell agreed.
“It certainly removes distractions,” he said. “Teleworking has helped us be very efficient and very productive, and I think it’s true for the entire Navy that what we look like on the tail end of this as we come out of it and how we manage and lead our workforce will be different than pre-COVID.”
The Pentagon’s old excuse for restricting telework was that people needed access to classified information and those people need to be on secure networks to tap into it.
“What we learned very quickly was that not everyone works with classified information, and even those that do, it’s not 100% of the time,” Hershman said. “We have started to relook at what is the mix, if we look at certain positions and the position descriptions, how much of it is feasible to do in a telework situation?”
Hershman has experts on her team examining how often people need to be in the office and talking to employees to see what their prime balance of telework and in-person work entails.
“We found in some situations, especially highly transactional work, employees were more productive,” she said. “In one instance, in Washington Headquarters Services, we had an individual that was 30% more productive. When we asked why they indicated a lot fewer interruptions and a lot fewer meetings that they have to attend. We’re learning from that and capturing that information.”
Chief of Navy Personnel Vice Adm. John Nowell agreed.
“It certainly removes distractions,” he said. “Teleworking has helped us be very efficient and very productive, and I think it’s true for the entire Navy that what we look like on the tail end of this as we come out of it and how we manage and lead our workforce will be different than pre-COVID.”
this is not cosmic brain surgery
it is now about production and accomplishment, not location or hours clocked in
08-01-2020, 03:25 PM
#58
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
Originally Posted by tallpilot
There is a mass exudus occuring in NYC and San Francisco. Real estate prices confirm that story. It is probably safe to add Chicago and Los Angeles to that list.
08-01-2020, 04:01 PM
#59
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 417
You know how it's funny listening in to private pilots having a discussion about how they'd take control and save the day if the flight crew somehow became incapacitated and was unable to perform their duties? It's kind of the same thing listening to airline pilots talk about what business travel is like when they've never worked in an industry that does so on a regular basis.
Aside from Zoom and other teleconferencing really only being useful to maintain existing relationships vice building new ones as rickair pointed out, traveling for meetings is a subset of what business travel accounts for. Aside from the "meeting" that is discussed here, I've done business travel in a previous life to :
1) Build a new team
2) Search for/inspect new property
3) Purchase a high dollar piece of equipment
4) Install a new system at a customer site
5) Troubleshoot a system after doing so remotely proved unworkable
...and I'm aware of others who have done all that (and more) without attending the typical "meeting" that is talked about here.
On top of that, work-from-home isn't the panacea that it's made out to be and the business world is just figuring that out:
Wall Street Journal Article
No doubt business travel will be slow to return, and it will look different when it does, but it will return. The notion that teleconferencing can and will replace it is just pants-on-the-head crazy.
Aside from Zoom and other teleconferencing really only being useful to maintain existing relationships vice building new ones as rickair pointed out, traveling for meetings is a subset of what business travel accounts for. Aside from the "meeting" that is discussed here, I've done business travel in a previous life to :
1) Build a new team
2) Search for/inspect new property
3) Purchase a high dollar piece of equipment
4) Install a new system at a customer site
5) Troubleshoot a system after doing so remotely proved unworkable
...and I'm aware of others who have done all that (and more) without attending the typical "meeting" that is talked about here.
On top of that, work-from-home isn't the panacea that it's made out to be and the business world is just figuring that out:
Wall Street Journal Article
No doubt business travel will be slow to return, and it will look different when it does, but it will return. The notion that teleconferencing can and will replace it is just pants-on-the-head crazy.
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