doesn’t really mean much when every airline is furloughing large amounts....

 

And when quite a few regionals are going out of business altogether.

Regional flying is the issue. Any individual regional is expendable, most existing just as a means of whipsawing the others for reduced rates. The major pilots hate them, the major managements play them. If the company you are working for isn’t selling the tickets you are taking you are a temp worker. It’s as simple as that. As a junior guy at a major your job will at least eventually survive hard times if your company doesn’t go bankrupt, and probably even if it does, albeit at potentially reduced pay. Regional guys have no such assurances.

 

It will work for a while on momentum. Remains to be seen how sustainable it is over time. How do you train noobs? Some people (like my wife) are going nuts at home, they actually like the social and teamwork aspects of their work.

Some organizations will likely go hybrid, smaller offices w/ shared cubes and alternating work at home days.

Silver lining, if organizations allow teleworkers to live anywhere, telework could actually boost biz travel, as very remote workers would need to fly 2-4 times/year to actually show their face at the home office.

Getting rid of ugly commutes could be a big perk in some locations, that's for sure.

Also, anyone who knows how big organizations work will realize that if you're upwardly mobile you need to be seen by the bosses...a lot. When it comes time for the promotion it's going to the guy who has been in the trenches (and probably in a few bars) elbow-to-elbow with the bosses, not a two-dimensional cartoon face on zoom.

Remember Jessica? As appealing a Toon as you could imagine, and all she wanted was to be real...

 

And this is why I tell my junior friends that have made it over that are about to be furloughed that I'd rather be in their shoes than mine.

 

Yup, rather have a number. Especially if you're young.

 

It's likely that some airlines won't survive this.

It's been awhile since we've have an Eastern/Pan Am/TWA disappear. Probably due for another.

 

the 80’s/90’s were a post-deregulation aberration. Not necessarily due for any demises

 

agreed. It will only be regionals that go away this round.

 

That may be true, but it will be interesting to see what happens to pilot salary’s at the Majors. One of the reasons that they pay as well as they do is that the regionals fly a lot of their routes so cheaply. If the regionals go away while the majors are shrinking, will the rates stay where they are? I don’t know. From what I’ve read it seems that the majors are going to be competing even more directly with the LLC’s for the low-fare leisure market. It seems to me that American was already headed down that road even before the virus got started.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/samuele.../#3a0bcb3e28a1

as to your point about competing with LCC’s, the article above makes it seem like AA is going to be using JetBlue like they did regional feed. If true, expect united and delta to hook up with LCC’s shortly as well. Could spell the end of regionals all together.