Lost decade 2.0?
07-31-2020, 09:13 PM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2011
Position: Admiral
Posts: 726
A few things are different in the airline industry today vs during the lost decade.
Today, (pre-covid) most analysts feel that we have reached optimum consolidation within the major/legacy sector. Those unions are well established and not likely to slide too far backwards re: concessions. We are also not likely to see many new entrants be successful in driving the wages way down.
The same goes for the regionals. This was (pre-covid) probably the area within the industry that still had some room for consolidation, but by in large had whittled itself down from the plethora of true mom and pop regionals operating turboprop service. Most of these regionals have union representation and the contracts will put them in a better place than during the lost decade. It will also be prohibitively expensive for small startups to try to usurp the industry and union contract protections.
Also of note, is that many, if not most, of those who were stuck in the lost decade the first time around are now at their "forever" airlines. I would hazard a guess that even with the risk of furlough, based on the sacrifices to get to where they are today, they would rather take furloughs over deep concessions that would be near impossible to claw back. We're also seeing many pilot opting to take early retirement. Those guys aren't coming back in 5 years when the industry is expected to be back And then it's likely that we'll be right back where we were, when all the regionals were clawing to get meat in the right seat. During those 5 years, you'll also see some attrition, people will find other employment and not want to start over. That 14 year regional lifer that just lost his job, probably won't be in a position to start over as an F.O anytime soon, so he'll need to beck filled somehow. And a bunch of new CFI's might not be able to stick it out 5 years. Which will contribute to a new pilot vacuum, though probably not as deep as during the lost decade. For those in the industry right now. I think it's all about waiting it out.
But then again, I read all that in a fortune cookie
Today, (pre-covid) most analysts feel that we have reached optimum consolidation within the major/legacy sector. Those unions are well established and not likely to slide too far backwards re: concessions. We are also not likely to see many new entrants be successful in driving the wages way down.
The same goes for the regionals. This was (pre-covid) probably the area within the industry that still had some room for consolidation, but by in large had whittled itself down from the plethora of true mom and pop regionals operating turboprop service. Most of these regionals have union representation and the contracts will put them in a better place than during the lost decade. It will also be prohibitively expensive for small startups to try to usurp the industry and union contract protections.
Also of note, is that many, if not most, of those who were stuck in the lost decade the first time around are now at their "forever" airlines. I would hazard a guess that even with the risk of furlough, based on the sacrifices to get to where they are today, they would rather take furloughs over deep concessions that would be near impossible to claw back. We're also seeing many pilot opting to take early retirement. Those guys aren't coming back in 5 years when the industry is expected to be back And then it's likely that we'll be right back where we were, when all the regionals were clawing to get meat in the right seat. During those 5 years, you'll also see some attrition, people will find other employment and not want to start over. That 14 year regional lifer that just lost his job, probably won't be in a position to start over as an F.O anytime soon, so he'll need to beck filled somehow. And a bunch of new CFI's might not be able to stick it out 5 years. Which will contribute to a new pilot vacuum, though probably not as deep as during the lost decade. For those in the industry right now. I think it's all about waiting it out.
But then again, I read all that in a fortune cookie
07-31-2020, 09:17 PM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2011
Position: Admiral
Posts: 726
Originally Posted by rickair7777
You're pretty far off the mark...
1) It hasn't been 100 years.
2) The "Flu Vaccine" is actually a cocktail of 3-4 different vaccines targeted at what they think will be the dominant strains each season. It changes twice each year.
1) It wasn't "botched together". Multiple vaccines (about 200) are in development using all of the different established and cutting-edge technologies. There should be multiple effective options to chose from, and some may be more suitable for some people than others. All normal pharma certification procedures are being followed so far.
2) Most of the people who don't get the flu shot aren't scared of it, they just didn't get around to it. Given the scare factor of covid, I would expect most folks will make the time. It will go to health care workers first (mandatory), then critical infrastructure folks like us (also mandatory), so by the time it even becomes available to the general public there will be some history.
No it's not at all like the flu in that regard... the flu exists in a perpetual mutation loop between pigs, domestic birds, and peasants in asia. That loop serves are a rapid incubator for new mutations, which them get on planes and spread across the globe.
Covid has not exhibited that behavior, nor is it likely to. Once vaccination is established, covid cases will fade to isolated pockets... likely too few cases to provide good opportunity for continuous mutations. Besides there will be multiple vaccines, mutating around one will not necessarily render others ineffective.
Zoom is not what you think it is. I did sales and management in corporate America... most business travel cannot be replaced by zoom. Some, yes but that was already happening before covid.
1) It hasn't been 100 years.
2) The "Flu Vaccine" is actually a cocktail of 3-4 different vaccines targeted at what they think will be the dominant strains each season. It changes twice each year.
1) It wasn't "botched together". Multiple vaccines (about 200) are in development using all of the different established and cutting-edge technologies. There should be multiple effective options to chose from, and some may be more suitable for some people than others. All normal pharma certification procedures are being followed so far.
2) Most of the people who don't get the flu shot aren't scared of it, they just didn't get around to it. Given the scare factor of covid, I would expect most folks will make the time. It will go to health care workers first (mandatory), then critical infrastructure folks like us (also mandatory), so by the time it even becomes available to the general public there will be some history.
No it's not at all like the flu in that regard... the flu exists in a perpetual mutation loop between pigs, domestic birds, and peasants in asia. That loop serves are a rapid incubator for new mutations, which them get on planes and spread across the globe.
Covid has not exhibited that behavior, nor is it likely to. Once vaccination is established, covid cases will fade to isolated pockets... likely too few cases to provide good opportunity for continuous mutations. Besides there will be multiple vaccines, mutating around one will not necessarily render others ineffective.
Zoom is not what you think it is. I did sales and management in corporate America... most business travel cannot be replaced by zoom. Some, yes but that was already happening before covid.
To add to this, even when they mutate, vaccines while not !00% effective can still be effective. Take the last H1N1 strain, the vaccines had about 30% effectiveness, but those that did get sick, generally were less so, and recovered much quicker.
08-01-2020, 03:29 AM
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 472
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Zoom is not what you think it is. I did sales and management in corporate America... most business travel cannot be replaced by zoom. Some, yes but that was already happening before covid.
Anyway I've taken a 5 month preemptive sabatical away from flying doing project managent stuff. Been doing it a few weeks already and I can tell you first hand that this zoom, skype, messenger, voip, phone call boogey man isn't real.
Its a mess..'oh can you hear me?...ahhh your breaking up...oh sorry I think I spoke over you....no, what document are you looking at?' It is messy to the point that meetings are cancelled and there are more one on ones and chinese whispers having to take place elaewhere. In a collaborative workplace it doesn't work.
After seeing it.....im not worried.
08-01-2020, 03:43 AM
#34
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2018
Posts: 95
Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat
I have seen for months people saying that airlines are done for and business travel is done blah blah.
Anyway I've taken a 5 month preemptive sabatical away from flying doing project managent stuff. Been doing it a few weeks already and I can tell you first hand that this zoom, skype, messenger, voip, phone call boogey man isn't real.
Its a mess..'oh can you hear me?...ahhh your breaking up...oh sorry I think I spoke over you....no, what document are you looking at?' It is messy to the point that meetings are cancelled and there are more one on ones and chinese whispers having to take place elaewhere. In a collaborative workplace it doesn't work.
After seeing it.....im not worried.
Anyway I've taken a 5 month preemptive sabatical away from flying doing project managent stuff. Been doing it a few weeks already and I can tell you first hand that this zoom, skype, messenger, voip, phone call boogey man isn't real.
Its a mess..'oh can you hear me?...ahhh your breaking up...oh sorry I think I spoke over you....no, what document are you looking at?' It is messy to the point that meetings are cancelled and there are more one on ones and chinese whispers having to take place elaewhere. In a collaborative workplace it doesn't work.
After seeing it.....im not worried.
08-01-2020, 04:45 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 3,659
Originally Posted by rickair7777
You're pretty far off the mark...
1) It hasn't been 100 years.
2) The "Flu Vaccine" is actually a cocktail of 3-4 different vaccines targeted at what they think will be the dominant strains each season. It changes twice each year.
I would add that the vaccine even for a non-dominant strain still has some effectiveness, but will also say that the flu vaccine is mainly administered not for immunity to all, but to slow severe outbreaks, essentially what we need with Covid.
1) It wasn't "botched together". Multiple vaccines (about 200) are in development using all of the different established and cutting-edge technologies. There should be multiple effective options to chose from, and some may be more suitable for some people than others. All normal pharma certification procedures are being followed so far.
2) Most of the people who don't get the flu shot aren't scared of it, they just didn't get around to it. Given the scare factor of covid, I would expect most folks will make the time. It will go to health care workers first (mandatory), then critical infrastructure folks like us (also mandatory), so by the time it even becomes available to the general public there will be some history.
I mean just because there are lots working on it, doesnt mean it is safe. I will say that I think this one will be done in the safest way possible given the urgency, but I dont know that I will be up first to test it out. In regards to the flu shot, I dont get it not because I dont get around to it, but rather because I just dont feel I need it.
No it's not at all like the flu in that regard... the flu exists in a perpetual mutation loop between pigs, domestic birds, and peasants in asia. That loop serves are a rapid incubator for new mutations, which them get on planes and spread across the globe.
Covid has not exhibited that behavior, nor is it likely to. Once vaccination is established, covid cases will fade to isolated pockets... likely too few cases to provide good opportunity for continuous mutations. Besides there will be multiple vaccines, mutating around one will not necessarily render others ineffective.
Pretty sure Covid is now on like 12 strains or something like that. I would have to look it up to be sure but I am fairly certain it is mutating. There is no way to definitively state right now that it won't turn into a seasonal issue.
Zoom is not what you think it is. I did sales and management in corporate America... most business travel cannot be replaced by zoom. Some, yes but that was already happening before covid.
1) It hasn't been 100 years.
2) The "Flu Vaccine" is actually a cocktail of 3-4 different vaccines targeted at what they think will be the dominant strains each season. It changes twice each year.
I would add that the vaccine even for a non-dominant strain still has some effectiveness, but will also say that the flu vaccine is mainly administered not for immunity to all, but to slow severe outbreaks, essentially what we need with Covid.
1) It wasn't "botched together". Multiple vaccines (about 200) are in development using all of the different established and cutting-edge technologies. There should be multiple effective options to chose from, and some may be more suitable for some people than others. All normal pharma certification procedures are being followed so far.
2) Most of the people who don't get the flu shot aren't scared of it, they just didn't get around to it. Given the scare factor of covid, I would expect most folks will make the time. It will go to health care workers first (mandatory), then critical infrastructure folks like us (also mandatory), so by the time it even becomes available to the general public there will be some history.
I mean just because there are lots working on it, doesnt mean it is safe. I will say that I think this one will be done in the safest way possible given the urgency, but I dont know that I will be up first to test it out. In regards to the flu shot, I dont get it not because I dont get around to it, but rather because I just dont feel I need it.
No it's not at all like the flu in that regard... the flu exists in a perpetual mutation loop between pigs, domestic birds, and peasants in asia. That loop serves are a rapid incubator for new mutations, which them get on planes and spread across the globe.
Covid has not exhibited that behavior, nor is it likely to. Once vaccination is established, covid cases will fade to isolated pockets... likely too few cases to provide good opportunity for continuous mutations. Besides there will be multiple vaccines, mutating around one will not necessarily render others ineffective.
Pretty sure Covid is now on like 12 strains or something like that. I would have to look it up to be sure but I am fairly certain it is mutating. There is no way to definitively state right now that it won't turn into a seasonal issue.
Zoom is not what you think it is. I did sales and management in corporate America... most business travel cannot be replaced by zoom. Some, yes but that was already happening before covid.
Originally Posted by Flyhayes
A few things are different in the airline industry today vs during the lost decade.
Today, (pre-covid) most analysts feel that we have reached optimum consolidation within the major/legacy sector. Those unions are well established and not likely to slide too far backwards re: concessions. We are also not likely to see many new entrants be successful in driving the wages way down.
The same goes for the regionals. This was (pre-covid) probably the area within the industry that still had some room for consolidation, but by in large had whittled itself down from the plethora of true mom and pop regionals operating turboprop service. Most of these regionals have union representation and the contracts will put them in a better place than during the lost decade. It will also be prohibitively expensive for small startups to try to usurp the industry and union contract protections.
Also of note, is that many, if not most, of those who were stuck in the lost decade the first time around are now at their "forever" airlines. I would hazard a guess that even with the risk of furlough, based on the sacrifices to get to where they are today, they would rather take furloughs over deep concessions that would be near impossible to claw back. We're also seeing many pilot opting to take early retirement. Those guys aren't coming back in 5 years when the industry is expected to be back And then it's likely that we'll be right back where we were, when all the regionals were clawing to get meat in the right seat. During those 5 years, you'll also see some attrition, people will find other employment and not want to start over. That 14 year regional lifer that just lost his job, probably won't be in a position to start over as an F.O anytime soon, so he'll need to beck filled somehow. And a bunch of new CFI's might not be able to stick it out 5 years. Which will contribute to a new pilot vacuum, though probably not as deep as during the lost decade. For those in the industry right now. I think it's all about waiting it out.
But then again, I read all that in a fortune cookie
Today, (pre-covid) most analysts feel that we have reached optimum consolidation within the major/legacy sector. Those unions are well established and not likely to slide too far backwards re: concessions. We are also not likely to see many new entrants be successful in driving the wages way down.
The same goes for the regionals. This was (pre-covid) probably the area within the industry that still had some room for consolidation, but by in large had whittled itself down from the plethora of true mom and pop regionals operating turboprop service. Most of these regionals have union representation and the contracts will put them in a better place than during the lost decade. It will also be prohibitively expensive for small startups to try to usurp the industry and union contract protections.
Also of note, is that many, if not most, of those who were stuck in the lost decade the first time around are now at their "forever" airlines. I would hazard a guess that even with the risk of furlough, based on the sacrifices to get to where they are today, they would rather take furloughs over deep concessions that would be near impossible to claw back. We're also seeing many pilot opting to take early retirement. Those guys aren't coming back in 5 years when the industry is expected to be back And then it's likely that we'll be right back where we were, when all the regionals were clawing to get meat in the right seat. During those 5 years, you'll also see some attrition, people will find other employment and not want to start over. That 14 year regional lifer that just lost his job, probably won't be in a position to start over as an F.O anytime soon, so he'll need to beck filled somehow. And a bunch of new CFI's might not be able to stick it out 5 years. Which will contribute to a new pilot vacuum, though probably not as deep as during the lost decade. For those in the industry right now. I think it's all about waiting it out.
But then again, I read all that in a fortune cookie
Originally Posted by Flyhayes
To add to this, even when they mutate, vaccines while not !00% effective can still be effective. Take the last H1N1 strain, the vaccines had about 30% effectiveness, but those that did get sick, generally were less so, and recovered much quicker.
Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat
I have seen for months people saying that airlines are done for and business travel is done blah blah.
Anyway I've taken a 5 month preemptive sabatical away from flying doing project managent stuff. Been doing it a few weeks already and I can tell you first hand that this zoom, skype, messenger, voip, phone call boogey man isn't real.
Its a mess..'oh can you hear me?...ahhh your breaking up...oh sorry I think I spoke over you....no, what document are you looking at?' It is messy to the point that meetings are cancelled and there are more one on ones and chinese whispers having to take place elaewhere. In a collaborative workplace it doesn't work.
After seeing it.....im not worried.
Anyway I've taken a 5 month preemptive sabatical away from flying doing project managent stuff. Been doing it a few weeks already and I can tell you first hand that this zoom, skype, messenger, voip, phone call boogey man isn't real.
Its a mess..'oh can you hear me?...ahhh your breaking up...oh sorry I think I spoke over you....no, what document are you looking at?' It is messy to the point that meetings are cancelled and there are more one on ones and chinese whispers having to take place elaewhere. In a collaborative workplace it doesn't work.
After seeing it.....im not worried.
08-01-2020, 04:52 AM
#36
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
Will zoom permanently replace business travel isn’t the problem.
Will zoom meaningfully slow resumption of business travel ... that’s the question. Every airline is on a path to bankruptcy today. Every single one. It’s just a matter of time. What matters is not whether demand comes back but how fast. Zoom isn’t a trivial consideration in that regard
Will zoom meaningfully slow resumption of business travel ... that’s the question. Every airline is on a path to bankruptcy today. Every single one. It’s just a matter of time. What matters is not whether demand comes back but how fast. Zoom isn’t a trivial consideration in that regard
08-01-2020, 05:19 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 2,465
So far, every example I've seen of Zoom use has been as a way for employees to stay home rather than commute daily to work. That really doesn't have anything to do with business travel on airplanes. Business will still need to send their employees to sales meetings and have face to face meetings to close the deal on contracts. And once people can safely gather again, business conferences will be a thing again. There may be some business permanently lost due to Zoom and Zoom like interfaces but it's not going to be a lot.
I think liability is probably a bigger issue to slowing down the return of business travel.
I think liability is probably a bigger issue to slowing down the return of business travel.
08-01-2020, 05:34 AM
#38
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Joined APC: May 2020
Posts: 484
Originally Posted by highfarfast
So far, every example I've seen of Zoom use has been as a way for employees to stay home rather than commute daily to work. That really doesn't have anything to do with business travel on airplanes. Business will still need to send their employees to sales meetings and have face to face meetings to close the deal on contracts. And once people can safely gather again, business conferences will be a thing again. There may be some business permanently lost due to Zoom and Zoom like interfaces but it's not going to be a lot.
I think liability is probably a bigger issue to slowing down the return of business travel.
I think liability is probably a bigger issue to slowing down the return of business travel.
There was a poster on another thread who did while you are zooming t
your clients and sending fruit baskets I’ll be taking them to Morton’s steak house. If people actually think all face to face is dead they have lost it. Even my wife’s company which went work from home for the finance sector still has office space for face to face meetings. Why because somethings you don’t want to say when there is a possibility of being recorded.
08-01-2020, 05:40 AM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Posts: 746
The severity of this is unprecedented. However, the lost decade created more damage due to the combined effect of an initial hit of the economy crashing and the sustaining effects of age 65. Think of COVID as a rapidly moving CAT5 hurricane and the lost decade as a lingering cat 4.
08-01-2020, 05:57 AM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2019
Posts: 1,130
True 65 was indeed a big deal, so was 4$ gas.
Also during the Great Recession a path to prosperity was not a sure thing. Consolidation as a result of deregulation was still happening. It’s a known thing for the first time in decades that the numbers of carriers we have today can actually be profitable, and that is encouraging.
Also during the Great Recession a path to prosperity was not a sure thing. Consolidation as a result of deregulation was still happening. It’s a known thing for the first time in decades that the numbers of carriers we have today can actually be profitable, and that is encouraging.
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