this is a bit of a “how many angels can dance on the head of a pin question”

my comparison is 2022 actual attrition vs 2022 alternate universe no-bonus attrition. The people who are most strongly incentivized to stay are the ones closest to flow.

Yeah it would be interesting to see the numbers on how many people who were otherwise planning to leave are now staying because of the money.

Anecdotally it seems that it's mostly just free money for those who planned to stay anyway. Then again attrition always shows down the closer you get to flow.

It should be 0 unless they can't do math

I do think it's funny how suddenly so many pilots are acting like major airlines are hammering down their doors begging them to come fly for them.

It's definitely easier to get hired than it has in the past, but with the way airline hiring goes you could be fully qualified and get nothing but thanks but no thanks without any explanation.

You said I wonder how many are staying rather than leaving, implying there are people turning down job offers or pulling apps out.

No I meant how many who were never planning to wait for the flow were convinced to stay. If someone has a job offer at a major they should definitely say no to this.

Personally I have an interview with a legacy carrier but will almost certainly turn down a job offer to stay for the flow. The extra money has nothing to do with it. I would have made the same decision without the bonuses because I don’t want to move and commuting for the next 20+ years is not an option for me and mine. The flow itself is what keeps me here, lame as it sounds. Without it, myself and many others would jump at whoever called first. I personally think the only people that this money will be the sole reason why they don’t leave is because they took the 30k and then for whatever reason felt they couldn’t get it all back to the company within the 30 days. I would think that pilots here are smart enough to move on to majors vs staying for a measly 30k. I’m pretty set on flowing but I still wouldn’t take the money if I felt like I couldn’t pay it back in time.

That's why so many of us are scratching our heads at their choice of throwing a bunch of money at this retention problem. Not that those who are going to AA don't want it, but those who are trying to get out, generally don't care about a theoretical bonus years down the road, as opposed to seniority and money at another airline NOW.

Guess we'll see how it plays out, and fairly quickly too, would be my guess.

Often the simplest, easiest solution is not the solution that solves the real problem. But it is fast and easy.

I just keep wondering how effective it'll even be in the short term.