So who was on the fence about leaving and had their mind changed by this $150k ?

I'm ~ 3 years best guess from flowing after 5 years at PSA. I have/had two interviews at LCCs. One would get me a local no more commuting base right away, the other would hopefully get me a local no more commute base after a year or so (?). I did some really basic rough numbers and it was roughly the same amount of $$$ between staying for flow to AA and the other two choices up to about the 10 year mark but after that the price delta at AA really starts take effect but I was hoping to retire in 13 years from now... (second career, small pension from first career...)

Guess my biggest fear at the moment is that I say no to the 30k (that I have to say yes or no to by 1 October) only to not get the call from one of my interviews. I'm not poor or anything but I could put that $30k to good use. On the other end of the spectrum... I take the $30k and THEN get the call up to a major ! While I have the discipline to keep that money on hand to repay... then I'll have all the headaches of corrected W2s, getting my taxes back, union dues back, etc, etc...

Thoughts ?

If you're not going to stick around AA long enough to reap the benefit (obviously you need to consider retirements in that calculus), then get your LCC seniority asap. Fixing W2's isn't that hard.

Also anyone would sleep better at night with LCC seniority in hand, vice regional seniority with hopefully/maybe AA seniority someday.

If it makes any difference, this programs most profound effect is likely to be substantially slowing flow times for people near the top as it reduces attrition most acutely for that group

I beg to differ. The number of pilots leaving above me outside of the flow has accelerated compared to pre-Covid.

Well... if we could get an accurate seniority list and a better guess at flow time, that may keep me at bay. As said I've only interviewed at this point, no offers yet !

Keep delaying while people junior to you get class dates

Unfortunately this is a question that really only you can answer. For what it's worth though I don't think either option is necessarily a bad one, it's just pros and cons.

What I would say though is that if you want to retire in 13 years, my advice would be the LCC route. 10-13 years at a low cost carrier will get you much more seniority and quality of life than 10 years at AA after waiting to flow will.

If you're really on the fence I'd say to turn down the 30 grand, and then if you wind up flowing anyway you'll still get the 70 grand on your last paycheck.

And potentially the other $50K as well.

How is applying and going to interviews delaying ? I mean if I had any say in the matter, I'd already be gone ! but alas I can't force them to offer me a position...