Major Airline Hiring 2020
#21
The real question is how far they can throttle back the flow without losing all their regional pilots to other majors. Because pirating your competitions feedstock is going to become the name of the game before long.
#23
Gets Weekends Off
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Joined APC: Feb 2021
Posts: 376
All that really matters is how many Captains there are, and how many FOs that can upgrade quickly.
The real number is how many line qualified Captains does each regional have. How many Captains that bid and fly the line every month.
In the next 18 months, we could "half" the regionals.
The problem is that when you "half" the regionals, you are taking the top half off as the majority of the hires will be captains.
For easy math, let's say there is a fictions airline that has 1000 actual line captains (with medical, not on leave, and actually flying every month.) Then, in a 5 month span, they lose 200 captains (40 per month). The airline will start to park airplanes because they can not staff the flying. Thus, fewer FOs will be needed. They will do everything that they can to hire street captains and to upgrade all of the FOs that are eligible. Huge bonuses for street captains (as you see now at several carriers) will pop up, and the airlines will do everything that they can to prevent pilots from leaving (huge retention bonuses, as you see now).
Then they lose another 200.
Then another 200.
The attrition will be faster than FO's can fly 1000 hours and upgrade to captain.
Think about it. It takes at least 2 years of busy flying to really become a captain (initial training, IOE, building time, then upgrade training, OE). In the matter of 1 year, the regionals could lose +6000 captains, and at 18 months, lose closer to 10,000. Losing captains that aren't replaced means fewer flights, which means fewer FO's building time, which means fewer FO's eligible to upgrade in the future. It is a vicious cycle.
If the regionals lose 10,000 pilots to the majors, they will be much smaller than 1/2 the size that they are now. They might be a 1/4 of the size. The cycle has already started, as is evident by the huge retention and street captain bonuses.
The real number is how many line qualified Captains does each regional have. How many Captains that bid and fly the line every month.
In the next 18 months, we could "half" the regionals.
The problem is that when you "half" the regionals, you are taking the top half off as the majority of the hires will be captains.
For easy math, let's say there is a fictions airline that has 1000 actual line captains (with medical, not on leave, and actually flying every month.) Then, in a 5 month span, they lose 200 captains (40 per month). The airline will start to park airplanes because they can not staff the flying. Thus, fewer FOs will be needed. They will do everything that they can to hire street captains and to upgrade all of the FOs that are eligible. Huge bonuses for street captains (as you see now at several carriers) will pop up, and the airlines will do everything that they can to prevent pilots from leaving (huge retention bonuses, as you see now).
Then they lose another 200.
Then another 200.
The attrition will be faster than FO's can fly 1000 hours and upgrade to captain.
Think about it. It takes at least 2 years of busy flying to really become a captain (initial training, IOE, building time, then upgrade training, OE). In the matter of 1 year, the regionals could lose +6000 captains, and at 18 months, lose closer to 10,000. Losing captains that aren't replaced means fewer flights, which means fewer FO's building time, which means fewer FO's eligible to upgrade in the future. It is a vicious cycle.
If the regionals lose 10,000 pilots to the majors, they will be much smaller than 1/2 the size that they are now. They might be a 1/4 of the size. The cycle has already started, as is evident by the huge retention and street captain bonuses.
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Feb 2021
Posts: 376
But PSA is losing more Captains each month that they are upgrading. Total number doesn''t matter. The new hire pilots that are starting this week will likely never upgrade at the regionals.
PSA and PDT will be parking airplanes in the next 6 months if they can not stop their attrition and increase hiring of experienced FOs (direct entry captains). Envoy will likely be in the same boat. And they are some of the best off.
PSA and PDT will be parking airplanes in the next 6 months if they can not stop their attrition and increase hiring of experienced FOs (direct entry captains). Envoy will likely be in the same boat. And they are some of the best off.
Last edited by FlyGuy2021; 09-29-2021 at 12:37 PM.
#26
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
The attrition will be faster than FO's can fly 1000 hours and upgrade to captain.
Think about it. It takes at least 2 years of busy flying to really become a captain (initial training, IOE, building time, then upgrade training, OE). In the matter of 1 year, the regionals could lose +6000 captains, and at 18 months, lose closer to 10,000. Losing captains that aren't replaced means fewer flights, which means fewer FO's building time, which means fewer FO's eligible to upgrade in the future. It is a vicious cycle.
.
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,090
Right now I'd be inclined to NOT upgrade if I was at a regional that flew for the major carrier that I wanted to fly at.
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 529
imagine explaining to a recruiter why you have no PIC time, because a conspiracy
about that very recruiters own hiring shenanigans
#30
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
LCA’s seem like they could be another linchpin that might go extinct, although that might be easier to fix with money
As for the majors only hiring FO’s …. even if that happens (doubtful) non-legacy hiring should be sufficient to cause trouble
As for the majors only hiring FO’s …. even if that happens (doubtful) non-legacy hiring should be sufficient to cause trouble
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