Is the regional model imploding?
10-22-2022 | 02:43 PM
#12
Porco Rosso
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 2,522
Likes: 0
Mainline 900 rates are actually in the Delta PWA and are significantly higher than 9E rates, never mind the improved work rules, profit sharing, and other things that DL offers.
10-22-2022 | 11:46 PM
#14
On Reserve
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 85
Likes: 0
From: Bus FO
10-23-2022 | 01:28 AM
#15
Porco Rosso
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 2,522
Likes: 0
Delta 900 FO is a twelve-year scale from $92 to $125. Delta 900 captain is a twelve-year scale from $168 to $183. Add to that 16% DC and profit sharing.
9E 900 FO is a seven-year scale from $53 to $71. 9E 900 captain is a fifteen-year scale from $94 to $129. No DC, no profit sharing.
9E 900 FO is a seven-year scale from $53 to $71. 9E 900 captain is a fifteen-year scale from $94 to $129. No DC, no profit sharing.
10-23-2022 | 03:40 PM
#17
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 432
Likes: 0
They’re idiots unless they’re within a few years of retirement. A 6 month delay could mean a 1,500 pilot difference in seniority.
10-23-2022 | 04:44 PM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,239
Likes: 210
10-25-2022 | 12:07 AM
#19
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 38
Likes: 0
Dude. How can this singular subject be so fascinating to you that you can’t help but continuously pontificate/opine/obsess on it?
You see it in thread after thread, hear it from fellow jumpseaters. Too few CAs. Too many FOs. It looks like a system near collapse.
Historically (ie, a few years pre COVID), people (excepting military flyers doing a touch and go after a decade of flying a desk) often languished in the regionals for years. Excepting those ex-military, 1000 TPIC was considered sort of entry level to be CONSIDERED for a legacy FO job and most successful applicants had far more. As a regional FO, you NEEDED 1000 hrs of SIC to be upgrade eligible but you might have to get a couple thousand hours to actually have the seniority to successfully bid for an upgrade, then having made CA, you might have spent awhile on reserve before you could seriously start gaining TPIC. So most regional CAs might spend a half decade or more as a CA before they got the call and a lot didn’t get the call at all, settling into a sort of ‘bloom where you are planted’ mode and becoming regional lifers. It was a slow trudge for many in the regionals but the model was functional - that is, self sustaining. But that was then and this is now.
At the start of COVID the Big Three legacies we’re expecting the decrease in flying to last longer than it eventually turned out it did. They already had near record numbers of age related retirements coming, but they incentivized early retirements for even more of their senior pilots. They got rid of a whole lot of people. WN did the same with their oldest pilots. But flying came back quicker than people imagined at a time when military flyers were also in short supply and military training had been cut back for a decade. When that flying came back so quickly, the Big Four had to hire lots of people. The most readily available source was the regional world. That’s when the regional model came under pressure.
Regional CAs with less than 1000 TPIC and even senior regional FOs started being hired at the Big Four, and other majors. ULCCs went even deeper into the regional FO pool. And the regional model soon started to show signs of failure. The question now is; Is the regional model still self-sustaining?
The most limiting factor appears to be the 1000 hr of 121 SIC retirement for upgrade. That drives the whole system. But as CAs started to leave, the pool of upgrade eligible (and willing) FOs also began to be drained. Generally you need more CAs than FOs, but suddenly those ratios were reversed and as more and more experienced FOs left for majors as well, the flying had to contract because there were not enough CAs to do the job. But as zero 121-time FOs were added at the bottom and experienced FOs left for majors the average experience level of FOs went well below the historical level. Many regionals simply didn’t have the FOs they needed who were upgrade eligible to fill their CA classes.
So right now a lot of regionals are paying big bucks for DECs and heavily working their remaining ‘lifers’ - those with too much invested in where they are and the seniority they have to be tempted away to a major. But DECs are becoming harder to find, ‘lifers’ are also retiring, and in many regionals the CA shrinkage only continues. And the more the CA group contracts, the more the incentive for even the ‘lifers’ to look elsewhere, because if the regional actually does fold they’ll be looking for another job anyway. Same for the FOs who can be competitive at even a ULCC. If their regional IS going to implode, they’ll perhaps be better off being at a ULCC - using it as a stepping stone - rather than a regional that may contract out of business. Nobody wants to be the one with no chair when the music stops and if something doesn’t change (a recession maybe?) that may happen in several regionals. That well might accelerate the process as things get tighter.
So is the regional model still self sustaining? Or is it imploding?
Historically (ie, a few years pre COVID), people (excepting military flyers doing a touch and go after a decade of flying a desk) often languished in the regionals for years. Excepting those ex-military, 1000 TPIC was considered sort of entry level to be CONSIDERED for a legacy FO job and most successful applicants had far more. As a regional FO, you NEEDED 1000 hrs of SIC to be upgrade eligible but you might have to get a couple thousand hours to actually have the seniority to successfully bid for an upgrade, then having made CA, you might have spent awhile on reserve before you could seriously start gaining TPIC. So most regional CAs might spend a half decade or more as a CA before they got the call and a lot didn’t get the call at all, settling into a sort of ‘bloom where you are planted’ mode and becoming regional lifers. It was a slow trudge for many in the regionals but the model was functional - that is, self sustaining. But that was then and this is now.
At the start of COVID the Big Three legacies we’re expecting the decrease in flying to last longer than it eventually turned out it did. They already had near record numbers of age related retirements coming, but they incentivized early retirements for even more of their senior pilots. They got rid of a whole lot of people. WN did the same with their oldest pilots. But flying came back quicker than people imagined at a time when military flyers were also in short supply and military training had been cut back for a decade. When that flying came back so quickly, the Big Four had to hire lots of people. The most readily available source was the regional world. That’s when the regional model came under pressure.
Regional CAs with less than 1000 TPIC and even senior regional FOs started being hired at the Big Four, and other majors. ULCCs went even deeper into the regional FO pool. And the regional model soon started to show signs of failure. The question now is; Is the regional model still self-sustaining?
The most limiting factor appears to be the 1000 hr of 121 SIC retirement for upgrade. That drives the whole system. But as CAs started to leave, the pool of upgrade eligible (and willing) FOs also began to be drained. Generally you need more CAs than FOs, but suddenly those ratios were reversed and as more and more experienced FOs left for majors as well, the flying had to contract because there were not enough CAs to do the job. But as zero 121-time FOs were added at the bottom and experienced FOs left for majors the average experience level of FOs went well below the historical level. Many regionals simply didn’t have the FOs they needed who were upgrade eligible to fill their CA classes.
So right now a lot of regionals are paying big bucks for DECs and heavily working their remaining ‘lifers’ - those with too much invested in where they are and the seniority they have to be tempted away to a major. But DECs are becoming harder to find, ‘lifers’ are also retiring, and in many regionals the CA shrinkage only continues. And the more the CA group contracts, the more the incentive for even the ‘lifers’ to look elsewhere, because if the regional actually does fold they’ll be looking for another job anyway. Same for the FOs who can be competitive at even a ULCC. If their regional IS going to implode, they’ll perhaps be better off being at a ULCC - using it as a stepping stone - rather than a regional that may contract out of business. Nobody wants to be the one with no chair when the music stops and if something doesn’t change (a recession maybe?) that may happen in several regionals. That well might accelerate the process as things get tighter.
So is the regional model still self sustaining? Or is it imploding?
10-25-2022 | 01:13 PM
#20
On Reserve
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 163
Likes: 8
Not to mention, a lot of people out there have their careers and livelihood wrapped up in the regionals in one way or another. Pilots, along with ground crew, FAs, management, etc.
The thought of watching an industry undergo a large change in such a short period of time is an interesting opportunity. I knew folks in the defense industry when the Berlin Wall fell and the Cold War "ended" in the early 90s. The subsequent consolidation of defense companies had effects that reverberate today. Knew others who were climbing the ladder in the music business in the early 2000s when online streaming took hold and upended the entire business model.
The average Joe or Jane air traveler probably doesn't know (or care), beyond wondering why the "little jets" seem to appear less and less at their local airport. For anyone in the industry, I think it's fascinating to watch it all unfold, and speculate where it will all go.
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