It seemed like the bulk of what you were saying was "It's a 2.5 year upgrade now, so it'll be that way by the time my number is up." I'm trying to tell you I would not rely on that.

 

That wasn't what I was aiming for. It should go without saying that the only thing you can bank on is what is current and that's it. If I say upgrades are 2-2.5yrs that's because that IS what they are. To say anything else is just an assumption based on nothing which has no relevance.

 

I think I would have to go with sharky on this one. Too many people forget that the quick upgrades are coming more from the large expansion and less from the people leaving. Republic doesn't have sole ownership of the sims either like he said. You can only upgrade so many people so quick. Once the new airframes stop hitting property this will slow upgrades pretty quickly.

However, I don't know why most of you are worried about the darn upgrade. Just take the job that fits where you live and sit through your 3 years or stay a flight instructor for an extra 1-2 years. Geesh most of you will still be a CA before your 25 and that isn't good enough?

 

Another thing I might throw out there. Mesa has a terrible attrition rate. Some months it hits 70 or more. However the farther up the scale you go the more of those are behind you. I was hired at Air Midwest around the 1700 mark after 1.5 years I was sitting around the 1200 mark. Thats 500 in 1.5 years but once you start getting close to the CA's Nobody is jumping ship with only a couple months to go, so that last 100 people can take you as long as the first 500.
Another thing to remember is that by taking the anybase/any equip. upgrade you will likley have to move just to sit RSV. By that time the new a/c will have stopped and you might sit RSV for a year...some other things that are hard to predict. So like I said ppl quit worrying about the upgrade and just go to class.

 

Predictions don't count. They could close a base and there be a surge in people leaving. They could drop all the EMB 3/4/5s and go with the 170s and need a ton of people. They could keep expanding. I know they are picking up more flying and have less people now than we did when I was hired. Due to attrition. The average is looking to be about 30 a month and that hasn't slowed as of yet. Several of those are captains. I know a few guys that sit reserve captain on purpose because of the 4hr minimum pay and they get over 100hrs a month worth of pay because of it. There isn't anything to vote on. Q:How long are upgrades? A: About 2.25yrs. That is a fact. Can't base judgment on anything else. The one thing everyone agrees on is that you can't guess the industry. 2yrs from now when the surge ends on our end maybe JO will be out and mesa hiring like crazy with a nice contract and new management. The possibilities of what things will be like in the future are so many that just beginning to have a thought about them is making my ears bleed.

I don't know of any other place that is looking any better currently. It's not just about us either. You'd have to take into account the majors, 135, and private hires as well.

 

Dude, did you read this before you typed it???? So you're telling me that if I put on my standing bid that I only want 170 CA DCA, that has nothing to do with my upgrade time? BS!

Yes, the upgrade time is between 2 years, 2 months if you put every base and every piece of equipment on your standing bid. If you only want a certain base, certain piece of equipment, or some combination thereof, as many, many FO's do, then you're looking at longer, up to 3 years longer depending on what you're holding out for.


That's EXACTLY where the 1000 came from. If there are 1900 pilots, you've got around 1,000 in front of you for upgrade! Which leads to Sharky's point, the most valid, but for some reason most overlooked in upgrade predictions, current time of most junior ca is about as useful a piece of information as my dog's shoe size. The best way to predict upgrade for a newhire is to look at the number of fo's in front of you and divide by the monthly rate of attrition, then you can factor in any variables you'd like to gamble on, such as market swings, growth, J4J guys leaving, etc.

I'm willing to bet you a handsome wager that you'll still be an FO 2.5 years from now, even if you bid all bases, all equipment. Not that there's anything wrong with that, I'm very happy here.

 

Amen Brother.. lets put this silly arguement to bed.

 

See my post above. Actually, longevity of the most junior captain, which is what you're quoting and calling "the only thing you can bank on," is the "assumption based on nothing which has no relevance(SIC)." The only thing that is useful for predictive purposes is # of FO's divided by current attrition, if you want to use "current" numbers with no assumptions thrown in.

Also, just to point out another inaccuracy in your previous posts, there are NOT less pilots now than there were last month.

 

To point out one of several inaccuracies in your post I never said there are less pilots now than there were last month. My # was greater when I was hired than there are current pilots. You can't bank anything on attrition. That could change tomorrow. Predictions are useless. I wasn't predicting at all. You keep missing the boat on that one. If you look at CURRENT data. it isn't 4yr upgrade. So if you take into account that my answer was a no assumption based answer then your whole little rant is completely misplaced. Current upgrades do not support the previous statements. Everyone can argue what they "think" will happen. All I hear is how there's a thousand pilots here yet you just said you can only base it on attrition which means that if we keep losing them at current rates then I'd still be right on schedule. There is no evidence, as of yet, that supports the claims being made. You've got guys retiring faster than ever in the majors, the J4J guys leaving, company expansion, and current attrition that states otherwise. However I'm not naive enough to think those things can't change which is why i try not to argue the future. The problem is some of you get on here and state it as fact which simply isn't true.

 

If you two monkeys ever get tired of throwing poop at each other, you may just want to play this game online.

http://www.i-am-bored.com/bored_link.cfm?link_id=11980