These could maybe have put the airplane into a hard right turn. But the flaps will stop moving if they are asymetric: you would have to have a flap drive shaft failure, followed by a gearbox failure, followed by a flap brake failure for that to happen...very very unlikely.

I don't see how these could have done it:

1) The rudder/aileron PCU's can be over-ridden by the remaining PCU's.

2) Nobody would turn in W/S, that's a straight-ahead thing.

3) If the flaps were way off, they would have got a warning at throttle-up, if they were one notch off they would still have been able to fly.

4) A bird might get an engine (or two), but that would not explain a hard right turn.


To get from V1 to 1/2 mile downrange on the 26 CL would require some SERIOUS right turning action. Not saying it couldn't have happened, but given fully loaded CRJ performace , it would be a real stretch.

 

I agree. All of the examples posted are a stretch. It's also likely that the most obvious/simple cause is the actual cause.

But if you've ever spent any amount of time in the box either teaching or observing pilots in training, you know that even the most obscure things can occur.

While I find it hard to believe that the crew was able to take off on the wrong runway (particularly if it was unlit), I do know that it's possible.

I'm just not willing to rule out a right 400 degree or a left 320 turn to the accident site off of runway 26 until the official factual report is published.

 

A nightmare for all involved, for sure. I prefer to give the crew the benefit of the doubt because undoubtedly the media will not. And I will pray for my surviving colleagues recovery. He will need his strength for what he's about to go through....

 

Hey look boys, don`t kill the messenger...I think you all know that 5191 could not have taken off on the long runway and ended up where it did. The cockpit crew screwed up and every one paid for it. A quick glance at the rmi would have shown that the runway heading didn`t jive with the instruments. Houston Hobby has a similar "gotcha"...how do I know? well you figure it out. I`m guessing that Comair has a standard take off briefing similar to my airline..ever heard of "WARTS' and "NATS" ? We are all sorry as hell that this happened, but it did and now Comair and Delta are gonna have to suck it up and pay for it, and I don`t mean just money, but there will be plenty of that outgoing......This is my last comment on this...sorry that the truth is so painful.

 

Looks like I was wrong...NTSB press conference said it was Rwy 26.

 

I heard there is a possibility that this was a reduced rest situation. Being tired is like being drunk, anything can happen. If that is the case, the FAA has more blood on their hands for not increasing required rest. I know after a RR I am tired as hell, especially with a 4:30am wakeup. Half that airport is under construction, possibly cleared for takeoff well before the end of 26 and boom, they were led right down the road. I personally have been cleared to go on early mornings when I was barely off the ramp. It isn't a problem if there is not another runway to cross before the departure runway. There is a chain of event here, it's not as simple as "they screwed up".

 

Its always a chain of events, like you said the rest period will come into play, the controller staffing levels (only one up in the Tower/Tracon)most smaller facilities run the TRACON out of the cab now until the second person comes in, and the controllers being tired from 6 day work weeks with few and little breaks, the way Comair and the FAA has been treating there employees, the FAA cutting the budget and safety as much as they can over the last year (after all the FAA is known as the Tombstone agency, they don't fix things until they have too), the construction issues at the airport. Youre right it is never as simple as "they screwed up", blame will be put all around. Hopefully the NTSB can set the FAA straight and make sure nothing like this happens again.

 

For the most part I agree with everything you wrote. Except, the NTSB has never been able to set the FAA straight.

The FAA, during it's current administration, has gone from providing safety, to selling safety via the lowest bidder.

 

The lowest bidder usually does a better job than a federal beaurocrat.

 

I think some ppl would be upset by your comment, but I agree with you. It's a truly a sad sad occasion all around. But it is what it is. I feel for that F/O. If he survives, he'll deal with survivor's guilt and face the FAA and the families of the dead.