I`m sitting here watching the president of Comair tap dance around the facts of this accident. We all know what happened. This might put Comair into the dirt permanently.

 

I think speculating is the right thing to do. Looking at the crash location, the pilot obviously took off from 8/26, and not 4/22. Personally, I would rather hear speculation which is more than likely true, than hear the crappy news media speculate. I was watching Fox News, and the stupid anchor made a big deal about an airworthiness directive (AD), and made it sound like a huge mechanical problem with the CRJ.



Some thoughts. Runway 8/26 is 3500ft by 75ft. Runway 4/22 is 7000ft by 150ft. Runway 4/22 is an instrument approach runway. 8/26 is only for visual.

Questions. What is a typical takeoff distance of a CRJ-200 (47pax, 6am, 8kt crosswind)? Is it close to 3500 or much more? Also, what is the wingspan of a CRJ-200? You'd think if the pilot missed the signage, the runway #'s, the no instrument markings, he could atleast tell the runway was too narrow.

 

It's not the Comair President's job to release facts about the accident. Like it or not, although he is certainly concerned about the well being of the passengers, crew and family members, an additional major concern of his is to protect the assets of the company and stock holders. That's why he's "tap dancing" around the facts (many of which have yet to be CONFIRMED by the parties that have the AUTHORITY to do so).

It's the NTSB's job to find out what happened and then release those facts to the public. Keep in mind also, that if Comair were to leak/release information about the accident that falls under the "scope" of the NTSB's domain, the NTSB can eliminate the company's role in the investigation (IE cut them as a "Party to the Investigation").

Finally, we all don't know "what happened." We all know what "likely happened." Aside from the FACTS that we can acertain from the news, we don't know the events that led to the accident until the boards findings are released at the end of the investigation.

 

Fact: the RJ is 1/2 mile off the end of the short runway. How do you suppose it got there?

 

I, as part of all, do not know what happened. It appears that the aircraft settled about a mile from 26 DER. I find it hard to believe the controller would watch the a/c take off on 26, when cleared for 22, then admit that to the media; PATCO. I've never flown/instructed in an rj, but have on the MadDog. I've seen guys get 40 degrees off runway heading during v1 cut ITO's. 30 degrees of bank could yield 40 degrees track chance pretty quickly. Still 2 early to speculate.

 

Roll Inverted,

If you really are a retired 767 Captain, then you of all people should know that what meets the eye during the initial stages of an accident investigation might not add up.

While I agree that there is a highly PROBABILITY that the crew departed the wrong runway, there are several other possibilites that need to be ruled out before I can definitively state that I KNOW FOR SURE WHAT HAPPENED (As you seem to have done).

Here's a list of some other possibilities that I'd want to rule out before making any certainties:

Improper reaction to V1 cut (right engine)
Rudder PCU runaway (full right deflection)
Asymmetrical flap retraction (right wing only)
Aileron PCU runaway (right wing down)
Windshear (from reported localized level 3 storm at approximate time of departure)
Improper flap setting
Bird Strike

Have you seen the radar tapes?

Were you there?

How do you know for certain that the flight didn't depart runway 22, then lose an engine and end up doing a right 360 and end up in that location?

Can you be positive that there wasn't an equipment malfunction of some sort?

 

I completely agree.

 

I agree this can't be good for Comair....didn't Delta just reopen Comair's routes for re-bid for other airlines to take?, they sound like they're in a bit of trouble here.

 

Well we've all been through CRM training and have read NTSB reports, so we know exactly how this can happen (if indeed that is what heppened here). Although I do also have a hard time buying this story, dispite the facts that we are presented with at this time. It is very sad. Lets all hope Mr. Polehinke pulls through this thing.

 

Rest in Peace.