Sean Menke's Official Approval Rating
01-26-2012 | 08:00 AM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,485
Likes: 0
From: Taco Rocket Operator
I don't have an MBA but you don't have to be Warren Buffett to visualize the following scenario playing out.
Based on SM's memo the reasons the company is in the current financial situation are:
1. Integration delays (blah blah blah)
2. Training costs associated with the ISL and 11-09
3. Loosing money on "pro rate" contracts (ALL 9L FLYING,9E 200 Flying)
So here is what I see happening in simple terms.
A. The company tries to get a 7% paycut and fails. It doesn't matter either way, it's just a pure "money grab" by them. They are filing BK either way.
B. So they go ahead and file BK.
C. Go to BK court and the judge will ask them if them why they are broke and if they have a plan to return to profitability.
At this point if YOU owned this company why wouldn't you just ask the judge to cancel the Bloch award/ISL and dump, spinoff, liquidate, or whatever Colgan and ALL the Colgan pilots. Then you dump the 9E Contracts and aircraft. Furlough some pilots and Bingo!, you're just left with a leaner, profitable airline with all premium Delta CPA flying. In basically one move they solve all the problems that are causing their current financial crisis.
IF a BK judge is doing his job correctly or if he is anti labor groups he won;t give a damn about the Bloch Award, the ISL, or a union contract. He doesn't care if or when little Timmy gets to upgrade, or whether or not employees get to keep their jobs. IN A PUBLIC COMPANY ALL HE CARES ABOUT IS GETTING THE COMPANY PROFITABLE FOR THE SHAREHOLDERS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE!
I know it may appear to be harsh. I'm a 9L guy so this isn't a Colgan bash, but I think everyone needs to prepare for the worst. I hope it doesn't come to that point but you can't sit there and say that at least one bean counter or hired gun hasn't suggested this scenario to Menke.
Based on SM's memo the reasons the company is in the current financial situation are:
1. Integration delays (blah blah blah)
2. Training costs associated with the ISL and 11-09
3. Loosing money on "pro rate" contracts (ALL 9L FLYING,9E 200 Flying)
So here is what I see happening in simple terms.
A. The company tries to get a 7% paycut and fails. It doesn't matter either way, it's just a pure "money grab" by them. They are filing BK either way.
B. So they go ahead and file BK.
C. Go to BK court and the judge will ask them if them why they are broke and if they have a plan to return to profitability.
At this point if YOU owned this company why wouldn't you just ask the judge to cancel the Bloch award/ISL and dump, spinoff, liquidate, or whatever Colgan and ALL the Colgan pilots. Then you dump the 9E Contracts and aircraft. Furlough some pilots and Bingo!, you're just left with a leaner, profitable airline with all premium Delta CPA flying. In basically one move they solve all the problems that are causing their current financial crisis.
IF a BK judge is doing his job correctly or if he is anti labor groups he won;t give a damn about the Bloch Award, the ISL, or a union contract. He doesn't care if or when little Timmy gets to upgrade, or whether or not employees get to keep their jobs. IN A PUBLIC COMPANY ALL HE CARES ABOUT IS GETTING THE COMPANY PROFITABLE FOR THE SHAREHOLDERS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE!
I know it may appear to be harsh. I'm a 9L guy so this isn't a Colgan bash, but I think everyone needs to prepare for the worst. I hope it doesn't come to that point but you can't sit there and say that at least one bean counter or hired gun hasn't suggested this scenario to Menke.
Since I do have an MBA, I see the following possibilty playing out:
1. Pay cuts pass by a narrow margin.
2. Company goes to UAL and gets them to tear up agreement with CO and write new agreement with UAL. This gets around the 50 seat limitation on CO's scope clause so the Qs and 900s can be placed on the same certificate. Also gets UAL to convert Saabs to Qs. This decreases overall Q operating cost due to greater economies of scale on the aircraft.
3. Some kind of fences are put up to reduce training costs until all aircraft are on one certificate.
4. Goes to DL and gets rate increase for 900s and money to defray Mesaba aquisition. Also gets agreement to allow UAL aircraft on PCL certificate.
5. Now that the company has a viable business plan that is stable and profitable, go to capital markets and borrow enough money to get through the next year and finish integration.
6. Bankruptcy is avoided.
If any of the above doesn't happen, then bankrupcty is the likely option because the company will not have a viable business plan that will allow it to borrow money in capital markets to address liquidity issues over the next year.
01-26-2012 | 08:37 AM
#32
Line Holder
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 84
Likes: 0
Since I do have an MBA, I see the following possibilty playing out:
1. Pay cuts pass by a narrow margin.
2. Company goes to UAL and gets them to tear up agreement with CO and write new agreement with UAL. This gets around the 50 seat limitation on CO's scope clause so the Qs and 900s can be placed on the same certificate. Also gets UAL to convert Saabs to Qs. This decreases overall Q operating cost due to greater economies of scale on the aircraft.
3. Some kind of fences are put up to reduce training costs until all aircraft are on one certificate.
4. Goes to DL and gets rate increase for 900s and money to defray Mesaba aquisition. Also gets agreement to allow UAL aircraft on PCL certificate.
5. Now that the company has a viable business plan that is stable and profitable, go to capital markets and borrow enough money to get through the next year and finish integration.
6. Bankruptcy is avoided.
If any of the above doesn't happen, then bankrupcty is the likely option because the company will not have a viable business plan that will allow it to borrow money in capital markets to address liquidity issues over the next year.
1. Pay cuts pass by a narrow margin.
2. Company goes to UAL and gets them to tear up agreement with CO and write new agreement with UAL. This gets around the 50 seat limitation on CO's scope clause so the Qs and 900s can be placed on the same certificate. Also gets UAL to convert Saabs to Qs. This decreases overall Q operating cost due to greater economies of scale on the aircraft.
3. Some kind of fences are put up to reduce training costs until all aircraft are on one certificate.
4. Goes to DL and gets rate increase for 900s and money to defray Mesaba aquisition. Also gets agreement to allow UAL aircraft on PCL certificate.
5. Now that the company has a viable business plan that is stable and profitable, go to capital markets and borrow enough money to get through the next year and finish integration.
6. Bankruptcy is avoided.
If any of the above doesn't happen, then bankrupcty is the likely option because the company will not have a viable business plan that will allow it to borrow money in capital markets to address liquidity issues over the next year.
01-26-2012 | 08:43 AM
#33
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,543
Likes: 0
From: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Since I do have an MBA, I see the following possibilty playing out:
1. Pay cuts pass by a narrow margin.
2. Company goes to UAL and gets them to tear up agreement with CO and write new agreement with UAL. This gets around the 50 seat limitation on CO's scope clause so the Qs and 900s can be placed on the same certificate. Also gets UAL to convert Saabs to Qs. This decreases overall Q operating cost due to greater economies of scale on the aircraft.
3. Some kind of fences are put up to reduce training costs until all aircraft are on one certificate.
4. Goes to DL and gets rate increase for 900s and money to defray Mesaba aquisition. Also gets agreement to allow UAL aircraft on PCL certificate.
5. Now that the company has a viable business plan that is stable and profitable, go to capital markets and borrow enough money to get through the next year and finish integration.
6. Bankruptcy is avoided.
If any of the above doesn't happen, then bankrupcty is the likely option because the company will not have a viable business plan that will allow it to borrow money in capital markets to address liquidity issues over the next year.
1. Pay cuts pass by a narrow margin.
2. Company goes to UAL and gets them to tear up agreement with CO and write new agreement with UAL. This gets around the 50 seat limitation on CO's scope clause so the Qs and 900s can be placed on the same certificate. Also gets UAL to convert Saabs to Qs. This decreases overall Q operating cost due to greater economies of scale on the aircraft.
3. Some kind of fences are put up to reduce training costs until all aircraft are on one certificate.
4. Goes to DL and gets rate increase for 900s and money to defray Mesaba aquisition. Also gets agreement to allow UAL aircraft on PCL certificate.
5. Now that the company has a viable business plan that is stable and profitable, go to capital markets and borrow enough money to get through the next year and finish integration.
6. Bankruptcy is avoided.
If any of the above doesn't happen, then bankrupcty is the likely option because the company will not have a viable business plan that will allow it to borrow money in capital markets to address liquidity issues over the next year.
Last edited by block30; 01-26-2012 at 02:35 PM.
01-26-2012 | 08:51 AM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 555
Likes: 0
I don't have an MBA but you don't have to be Warren Buffett to visualize the following scenario playing out.
Based on SM's memo the reasons the company is in the current financial situation are:
1. Integration delays (blah blah blah)
2. Training costs associated with the ISL and 11-09
3. Loosing money on "pro rate" contracts (ALL 9L FLYING,9E 900 Flying)
So here is what I see happening in simple terms.
A. The company tries to get a 7% paycut and fails. It doesn't matter either way, it's just a pure "money grab" by them. They are filing BK either way.
B. So they go ahead and file BK.
C. Go to BK court and the judge will ask them if them why they are broke and if they have a plan to return to profitability.
At this point if YOU owned this company why wouldn't you just ask the judge to cancel the Bloch award/ISL and dump, spinoff, liquidate, or whatever Colgan and ALL the Colgan pilots. Then you dump the 9E Contracts and aircraft. Furlough some pilots and Bingo!, you're just left with a leaner, profitable airline with all premium Delta CPA flying. In basically one move they solve all the problems that are causing their current financial crisis.
IF a BK judge is doing his job correctly or if he is anti labor groups he won;t give a damn about the Bloch Award, the ISL, or a union contract. He doesn't care if or when little Timmy gets to upgrade, or whether or not employees get to keep their jobs. IN A PUBLIC COMPANY ALL HE CARES ABOUT IS GETTING THE COMPANY PROFITABLE FOR THE SHAREHOLDERS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE!
I know it may appear to be harsh. I'm a 9L guy so this isn't a Colgan bash, but I think everyone needs to prepare for the worst. I hope it doesn't come to that point but you can't sit there and say that at least one bean counter or hired gun hasn't suggested this scenario to Menke.
Based on SM's memo the reasons the company is in the current financial situation are:
1. Integration delays (blah blah blah)
2. Training costs associated with the ISL and 11-09
3. Loosing money on "pro rate" contracts (ALL 9L FLYING,9E 900 Flying)
So here is what I see happening in simple terms.
A. The company tries to get a 7% paycut and fails. It doesn't matter either way, it's just a pure "money grab" by them. They are filing BK either way.
B. So they go ahead and file BK.
C. Go to BK court and the judge will ask them if them why they are broke and if they have a plan to return to profitability.
At this point if YOU owned this company why wouldn't you just ask the judge to cancel the Bloch award/ISL and dump, spinoff, liquidate, or whatever Colgan and ALL the Colgan pilots. Then you dump the 9E Contracts and aircraft. Furlough some pilots and Bingo!, you're just left with a leaner, profitable airline with all premium Delta CPA flying. In basically one move they solve all the problems that are causing their current financial crisis.
IF a BK judge is doing his job correctly or if he is anti labor groups he won;t give a damn about the Bloch Award, the ISL, or a union contract. He doesn't care if or when little Timmy gets to upgrade, or whether or not employees get to keep their jobs. IN A PUBLIC COMPANY ALL HE CARES ABOUT IS GETTING THE COMPANY PROFITABLE FOR THE SHAREHOLDERS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE!
I know it may appear to be harsh. I'm a 9L guy so this isn't a Colgan bash, but I think everyone needs to prepare for the worst. I hope it doesn't come to that point but you can't sit there and say that at least one bean counter or hired gun hasn't suggested this scenario to Menke.
01-26-2012 | 08:55 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 691
Likes: 0
I could also see the company furloughing out of seniority in this situation. If we dump all the Q's and SF-340 the training costs would be huge. So the company goes to the BK judge and explains why they have to do this and the judge agrees because all he cares about is the health of the company not the seniority system we have in place.
01-26-2012 | 09:16 AM
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 273
Likes: 0
If they have to retrain everyone again this place is as good as done.[/QUOTE]
And that is what they are going to tell BK judge. And let's examine reality, the XJ FA's got a raw deal and all you heard was there is going to a mass exodius of FA's if they get a 3/1 seniority deal. Well they did and I don't think any of them left yet. 99.9% of the pilots would not just leave because they are pi$$ed at the company without another job, and the company knows it. And under BK we found out that striking is not an option.
And that is what they are going to tell BK judge. And let's examine reality, the XJ FA's got a raw deal and all you heard was there is going to a mass exodius of FA's if they get a 3/1 seniority deal. Well they did and I don't think any of them left yet. 99.9% of the pilots would not just leave because they are pi$$ed at the company without another job, and the company knows it. And under BK we found out that striking is not an option.
01-26-2012 | 09:27 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 555
Likes: 0
And that is what they are going to tell BK judge. And let's examine reality, the XJ FA's got a raw deal and all you heard was there is going to a mass exodius of FA's if they get a 3/1 seniority deal. Well they did and I don't think any of them left yet. 99.9% of the pilots would not just leave because they are pi$$ed at the company without another job, and the company knows it. And under BK we found out that striking is not an option.[/QUOTE]
Not really. Look at past bks. Ual parked it's 737's and some 74's after bk. they didn't furlough out of seniority. Nwa did the same. The judge said " ok it's goin to cost "x" millions to retrain pilots, let's cut deeper." it hasn't happened in recent history. Remember, the company can ask until they are blue in the face in bk, but they aren't calling the shots. The judge is, and his or her job is to protect shareholders and the creditors first, and get the company moving back into the black.
Not really. Look at past bks. Ual parked it's 737's and some 74's after bk. they didn't furlough out of seniority. Nwa did the same. The judge said " ok it's goin to cost "x" millions to retrain pilots, let's cut deeper." it hasn't happened in recent history. Remember, the company can ask until they are blue in the face in bk, but they aren't calling the shots. The judge is, and his or her job is to protect shareholders and the creditors first, and get the company moving back into the black.
01-26-2012 | 09:30 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,485
Likes: 0
From: Taco Rocket Operator
And that is what they are going to tell BK judge. And let's examine reality, the XJ FA's got a raw deal and all you heard was there is going to a mass exodius of FA's if they get a 3/1 seniority deal. Well they did and I don't think any of them left yet. 99.9% of the pilots would not just leave because they are pi$$ed at the company without another job, and the company knows it. And under BK we found out that striking is not an option.
Not really. Look at past bks. Ual parked it's 737's and some 74's after bk. they didn't furlough out of seniority. Nwa did the same. The judge said " ok it's goin to cost "x" millions to retrain pilots, let's cut deeper." it hasn't happened in recent history. Remember, the company can ask until they are blue in the face in bk, but they aren't calling the shots. The judge is, and his or her job is to protect shareholders and the creditors first, and get the company moving back into the black.
Not really. Look at past bks. Ual parked it's 737's and some 74's after bk. they didn't furlough out of seniority. Nwa did the same. The judge said " ok it's goin to cost "x" millions to retrain pilots, let's cut deeper." it hasn't happened in recent history. Remember, the company can ask until they are blue in the face in bk, but they aren't calling the shots. The judge is, and his or her job is to protect shareholders and the creditors first, and get the company moving back into the black.
Last edited by FlyingKat; 01-26-2012 at 10:15 AM.
01-26-2012 | 02:31 PM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 687
Likes: 0
We have a Union to collectively bargain for us and to protect our seniority. If it plays out that our contract gets thrown out and our seniority ignored then why do we belong to a Union? I don't see an out of seniority furlough, that is a lot for the company to gamble on without knowing for sure. That is the pickle they are in, going bankrupt and not getting what they want might be like shooting yourself in the foot. If they have to retrain everyone again this place is as good as done.
01-26-2012 | 04:36 PM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 3,142
Likes: 4
From: FIRE ALPA
And that is what they are going to tell BK judge. And let's examine reality, the XJ FA's got a raw deal and all you heard was there is going to a mass exodius of FA's if they get a 3/1 seniority deal. Well they did and I don't think any of them left yet. 99.9% of the pilots would not just leave because they are pi$$ed at the company without another job, and the company knows it. And under BK we found out that striking is not an option.[/QUOTE]
Actually, several have left (granted mostly newhires that would leave anyway) most are holding out that their union can win the court battles to regain their losses (which really don't hurt the company just the other FA's who got a seniority windfall) and if that fails they will bail in large formation.
Actually, several have left (granted mostly newhires that would leave anyway) most are holding out that their union can win the court battles to regain their losses (which really don't hurt the company just the other FA's who got a seniority windfall) and if that fails they will bail in large formation.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
