One one of two ways that I see.

1 is government intervention. This won't happen because airlines have lobbyists and can always "get their way" for their "economic success".

2 is if pilot's take a stand and do not accept cuts/demand higher pay. Then many airlines would not be able to survive, supply would finally be smaller than demand (which is what you want in any NORMAL business, rather than having excess of pilots and planes and routes), many pilots would lose their jobs, meaning less of a pilot shortage, but those pilots and airlines that would survive would be in a much better position to provide decent benefits and wages, because they could charge higher prices and would have less competition.

It's a lose-lose situation. At some point, this industry became artificially inflated and supported (buying into the idea that you can spend a few years at a regional and "hop" to a major, while the economics of airline flying changed and everyone and their daughter started a regional airline). It won't end well.

The execs are in the business of making money for them and the shareholders. At some point they'll SCREAM about a pilot shortage I'm sure, this will be because no one wants to work for them. If we are lucky, they might start to dry up and die at that time.

 

The regionals were a trap for us stupid pilots. They called it a stepping stone and removed all of the other stones. So now we are stuck. Either jump ship or keep truckin. But I don't see how anything at the regionals will ever get better. The business model is predicated on people that are making the sacrifice for something better. But no one wants to believe that this "something better" doesn't really exist. Gotta love the Koolaid.

If we ever want to get ahead as a pilots we need to be much smarter than them.

 

exactly. fml.

 

In this day and age supply and demand is a one way street. Anytime there is a surplus of skilled labor, wages are pushed down. However, any shortages are usually remedied by either decreasing the entry requirements or increasing the availablity of visas for foreign workers. Either way wages are held down.

If airlines cannot attracted qualified applicants for crap wages the last thing they will do is offer to increase pay in any meaningfull way. My guess is that they will start ab-initio training programs which will require some sort of long term contract.

 

I work for a major collegiate flight school, and I also have an MBA. By no means does this mean I can predict the future, but the data from our end shows the numbers are drying up. I graphed out our total annual flight hours between 2003 and late 2011. Our total flight hours have dropped 40% between 2007 and 2011, enrollment down 42% Not so ironically, our management made large aircraft and avionics investments right at the market peak in 2007. Literally bought right at the top.

There doesn't appear to be an end to the trend yet. The college is pretty tight lipped, but the instructors have received a $5/hr pay cut November 2011, our personal use of aircraft was cut this month, 10 new students are enrolled for the Summer I semester (1/3 of what it has been over the last 5 years) and there is talk of a fleet reduction of 5 aircraft. Anyone should be able to read between the lines on this one.

-And another thing- the longer there is a surplus of pilots, it's just all the more likely that it will change. The labor market will correct its self, and we are seeing the beginning of that.

 

The regionals stopped being a stepping stone a long time ago. Since when does spending a decade of time and making over $100k a year at the top of the pay scale, qualify you as a "stepping stone"? In what other industry would you be considered, merely an apprentice, and moving on, if you had a decade of experience and earned that kind of money? Supply and demand will ultimately dictate our pay and benefits. Not some perceived notion of entitlement.

 

Hey guys. What's up? What's going on?

 

Similar situation where I'm at. Went from a fleet of almost 30 planes 5 years ago down to only 14 now. Enrollment way down over the past 5 years or so. Technically they didn't cut instructor pay, but they froze pay raises, and we lost a couple of instructors to the airlines who are not going to be replaced. The college just tells us instead we need to work 50+ hour work weeks to absorb the extra workload. (the joys of being salaried lol)

So, yes, there are fewer pilots coming up through the pipeline. I attribute this to the difficulty of getting student loans for flight training, plus the obscene expense that flight training has become with $6/gallon 100LL. If there was a cheaper way to get in I believe more pilots would.

Things will get tighter at the airlines, but they will hold off on significant pay raises and do whatever it takes to keep costs down as long as they can. I envision route cuts, and flying fewer flights in larger RJ's (e.g. 2/day trips in a 70 seater vs 4/day in a 40 seater). Then there is the possibility of ab initio programs causing students to be in debt to airlines and stuck at low pay for many years. I'm sure there's other ways the airlines could find ways to cut costs.

What I see in the near future is pay pretty much holding still, and building hours becoming a lot harder. A year or so from now there will be a glut of flight instructors and low time pilots waiting for the pilots ahead of them to get to ATP mins, and hiring for low-time jobs will be at a standstill like it was in 2009-2010.

 

+2 my friend. Until we start focusing on the size of the W2 and less on the size of the plane, we're screwed. Too many RJ pilots (or potential RJ pilots, i.e. CFI's etc.) are willing to trade a bigger plane for a smaller W2. Can't blame them. I made the same mistake.

Funny thing is, talk to the guys in the biggest planes, and they're happy to give up a few thousand pounds of MTOW in favor of a few thousand dollars of pay. That should tell you something.

If my regional FO pay topped out at 200k, I'd have no interest in flying that DAL 777.

 

2-3 day trips out of home base with that kind of pay? I'll fly whatever they want, Cessna 402C or 747, makes no difference.