85 new hires so far. I said it before. They say we are getting the hiring quota, but is mainly because of FOQ is getting all the sim time.

I do think that in 18months things will get interesting.

 

I hope you're right

 

Agree with JJ on this one.

 

Interesting post, but it is not just Eagle that is hiring such minor percentages of the total pilot interview applicants they bring in for an interview. ExpressJet, Great Lakes, and Republic are a few others that I personally know are doing the same kind of thing, skimming off a few golden faces from any given pilot interview group. You could say they just don't get it, that staffing disasters are imminent as a result of their failure to recruit enough new faces, the up and coming pilot training pipeline is dry, etc. but I suspect they do get it, the pilot pipeline is not a lot less than it ever was, they are not failing to hire enough people for their projected needs, and there is no staffing disaster coming anywhere at any regional anytime soon, period. They know what they are doing. At least it looks that way to me and they are all acting about the same way- it is business as usual in airline pilot hiring trends. Minor differences at best. They are hiring what they need. Pilots desperate to hear of a magical shortage is what is really going on.

 

Aside from what apparently is simply a "gut feeling" on this, what factual foundation can you provide to support your hypothesis ?

I know it's not just Eagle, hence my statement the regional INDUSTRY is ****ed. At any rate, it was the very people you claim are in full control of their business destiny that represented both the need and the ability to hire 600 at Eagle in 2013, yet have only been able to attract a fraction of those representations. It was these very people who have added thousands of dollars of incentives, first in ca$h and now in seniority, health care and travel bennies. I'm sorry, but I think either you're in the airline management damage control business or are in denial. You'll note I forcast disaster for this segment of the industry as opposed to just this particular carrier, which may be one if the survivors albeit substantially smaller then present.

As new 76-seaters filter in to the U.S. from Brazil and Canada, they'll have to park a larger number of smaller RJ's. Overall, the regionals will have to contract as they cannot provide the fleet count resources to serve the present domestic market. A smaller number of larger RJ's will result in many markets either abandoned or reassigned to mainline where many of those markets existed 10-15 years ago. Delta gets it best as they are shifting more regional flying back to mainline and the 50-seater for 717 idea, but UAL and likely AA not so much. The global network that identifies and is proactive to deal with this now will capitalize on most market share and those who don't will be stuck in a reactive role and competitively, that's not the best strategy.

 

Just a friendly discussion here, but I read these boards like you do and I occasionally do airline interviews and give interviews, collect data here and there best I can. Is that rigorously scientific? No. But it consistently says that regionals are not currently under supplied with pilots to draw from. If they were they would grab very qualified pilot they can find, but they do not. not even close and you know this is the case since Eagle hired 90 in the last 5 months for example. All of them hire only a few pilots here and there.

All this may be the case, but making bonuses and some retractable benefits does not really indicate anything significant. Every spring the new car dealers make a lot of TV advertisements and offer rebates, bonuses and trade-ins to sell cars. They do it because it works. The airlines may have needed these incentives this year more than previous years perhaps, but it still does not prove a deep shift in pilot supply. They were probably seeing a small drop in economical (ie. cheap) labor for a while and got a bit worried, that's all. No major shift in supply. In the spring you need incentives to move more cars.

No, just a pilot on the street. No dog in the fight, actually I wish there was a pilot shortage so I could go to Skywest and make $95K in the right seat which is what that job "should" pay, for its training and responsibility.

I go on ad hoc data for the most part, but my data consistently says there is no pilot shortage. That's all. I offer the USBLS airline pilot occupational anaylsis as solid evidence, if you would rather hear it from them. They say that only average growth in pilot hiring is to be expected during the next ten years, no more.

 

Rah is hiring anyone who comes in the door and still cant man the Q400s-- Theyre using capt in both seats. With the 1500 rule, where will the regionals get the new-hires for growth? Flight schools?

 

That's not true in my recent experience, not true at all. RAH hired only a few (if any) out of a group of 6 I was with recently. They did not even bother making me an offer despite my meeting all their requirements. They are not having trouble with their pilot supply over at RAH, they are having trouble finding cheap pilots to meet their low cost of training goals. Lots of pilots are showing up, but not as many cheap ones as they desire. They know who is likely to cost them some money, and they send those pilots home. No shortage.

 

So a shortage of qualified, trainable pilots is not a shortage? They recently hired a guy with a felony on his record and another got an offer who geared one up instructing. And why didnt they make u an offer? Im not clear on yur point. I presume its training failures theyre trying to avoid. Btw it used to be 20 at an interview.

 

And the list of reasons why me or my family will never fly on a Republic aircraft has just grown longer.