Originally Posted by pagey

This just seems to be the thing to say. Mostly because people have heard it said over and over again, not because they actually believe it or have data to back it.

The majors are already hiring.

Lack of new pilots coupled with retirement numbers seem to support a lack of warm bodies in the next 10 years or so.

Obviously anything can happen economy wise or with a 9/11 style event but at this time things look to be trending towards the positive.

The majors will most likely never be canceling flights because they cant get enough applicants but if you want to work at a place like that you probably have a better chance in the next decade or so than any other previous time in airline history.

It's amazing to me that pilots, a workgroup that is very left-brained, would continue to deny supporting facts because they've been hearing some guy spout off that "there never has been and never will be."

Originally Posted by What

He believes that the mainlines are not hiring? That all the hiring projections are a hoax!

Originally Posted by Bzzt

1500 over 5 years at AA, let's assume that's the norm. 300 per year at UAL, DAL, AA so were looking at 900 a year. If you don't have strong connections, internship, etc. you're not getting hired. Time to face the facts, most of us will spend the majority of our careers at a regional and maybe if we're lucky we'll spend the last 10 or so at a mainline.

These "projections" also account for growth which may or may not happen. I prefer to count my chickens after they've hatched.

Originally Posted by pagey

900 per year....There are only ~20000 regional pilots.

Probably 20-30% either don't want to move up, or are un-hireable leaving ~16000 pilots.

Your 900 per year will increase, and doesn't need growth to do so. Retirements start to skyrocket after 2020.

While obviously every slot at a major will not be offered to a regional pilot, your own(probably conservative) 900 per year projection will have enough slots for theoretically every single regional pilot to move to a major within around 16 years. That leaves the average 25-30 year old regional FO with a 20+ year career at a major.

900 a year is a pretty good number.

Your numbers also don't count desirable destinations like brown, purple, SWA, AAG, and Hawaii.

Originally Posted by buddies8

oh the dreamers of that mainline job that will never appear, there numbers are so skewed.

Originally Posted by buddies8

oh the dreamers of that mainline job that will never appear, there numbers are so skewed.