What makes you so sure upgrades will go into the 2008 hires? I'm a late 2007 hire and do not see upgrading next year as a probability.

This is a shrinking airline. 21 planes gone in 2014 is approximately 190-200 pilots less required. The flow is suppose to be metered, as said by Bartle (we know that can change). If the flow can get through 300 pilots next year, that would be amazing! But it is already partly offset by approximately 200 less pilots required. And I think 300 flowing is also very optimistic.

Now, you can reasonably assume the majors will take some captains here as well. But trying to estimate that is difficult at best. I'd love to hear some real expectations on that.

I'm not trying to doom and gloom. I believe there will be some upgrades and movement. That is a good thing. But I want some real hard facts and numbers, not projection based on feeling.

Currently, attrition is coming as much from the bottom as it is the top. Attrition never presents the same kind of opportunities that growth does.

Be cool, baby. Your turn is right around the corner. Make sure your displacement preference has all the Captain options listed.

Momentum is the reason if you are looking for one. There is no reason for AMR to reverse the current trend of upgrades. In fact they will probably increase as the flows to American increase in 2014. Don't forget attrition.

If you want more than that then all I can say is wait until around February-ish. Big Pedro has a plan for L-Eagle which AMR/AAG has agreed to. They are waiting to exit bankruptcy before making it official.

They will also attach PBS to it, make no mistake. But, like I said: Get your displacement bids in order. Now. ;)

I don't like carrots. I have become very distrustful of them. Tell me, or I have no choice but to calculate based on numbers from information available.

I am aware that our current MEC will tie any concessions (PBS included) to career progression. But it needs to be solid language with no subjective language.

I really do not want to upgrade into a company that has horrible work rules. If I did, I would of chased the fast upgrade in 2007 and gone to Mesa or Republic.

Not calling you out, but just curious of your source. I read an email earlier from Pedro talking about them making job cuts in management and soon other "unionized jobs."

Source????? :D

The source is Pedro himself. Ask your Union reps, they are all aware.

In fact Ray and Herb were in on the first meeting where this information was divulged early last month.

The biggest push the company seems to want to make at this point is PBS. There really doesn't seem to be any desire to erode our QOL beyond whatever impact PBS may have. Work rules will remain as they currently are as will pay.

Our NO vote this past summer has done some good. More than many of us can tell. I really don't want to throw out the "F" word..the one that rhymes with "smeet shlan" but let me say this:

Unlike the Republic and ExpressJet deal our plan will be financed by American. Which means they have to wait until exiting bankruptcy. That has been the biggest delay up until now.

Kirby decided it would be a good opportunity to push forward a "B" scale and Parker agreed. We firmly told them NO and they decided to try their luck with PSA. They rolled over like puppies as we all know.

Regardless, our "plan" remains intact except now they will attach it to PBS. Anything more than that and I really don't know. But ask your Union reps for more detailed information...especially Herb and Ray.

The erosion of QOL comes in many ways, like pairings (especially for commuters) and overnights (see CLT). There are also issues like multiple turn backs for reserves. All of these are eroding.

PBS impact has the potential of being a huge erosion of QOL. If I have to spend 5 nights away from home, flying unproductive lines in really bad hotels it will have an effect on my health as well as my wallet.

Whatever plan they present will have to be pretty convincing to expose myself to that.

Completely agree with your post. Currently commuting and have to get to base day before to work. This sucks and is not getting better.

Even without PBS they are making commuting impossible, is punishment for the NO B scale vote.

We will see how this will turn out in a couple of months.

Why wait until around February? That's nearly two months past the official completion of bankruptcy and merger. Seeing as how the bankruptcy exit and merger is officially complete on Monday Dec. 9, the companies can gain any kind of financing etc much sooner.

I'm not saying what you heard is not correct, because I have no idea quite frankly, but what's the significance of waiting another two or so months?

the fact that Herb is not a status rep makes this info suspect.
any fleet NOT tied to L-egl certificate cannot be enforced. If AAG holds them they can be shifted at will