Originally Posted by SebastianDesoto (Post 1534029)

What makes you so sure upgrades will go into the 2008 hires? I'm a late 2007 hire and do not see upgrading next year as a probability.

This is a shrinking airline. 21 planes gone in 2014 is approximately 190-200 pilots less required. The flow is suppose to be metered, as said by Bartle (we know that can change). If the flow can get through 300 pilots next year, that would be amazing! But it is already partly offset by approximately 200 less pilots required. And I think 300 flowing is also very optimistic.

Now, you can reasonably assume the majors will take some captains here as well. But trying to estimate that is difficult at best. I'd love to hear some real expectations on that.

I'm not trying to doom and gloom. I believe there will be some upgrades and movement. That is a good thing. But I want some real hard facts and numbers, not projection based on feeling.

Currently, attrition is coming as much from the bottom as it is the top. Attrition never presents the same kind of opportunities that growth does.

Originally Posted by norskman2 (Post 1533487)

Don't be too hung up on "jet time". TPIC is still golden, get it if you can.

Originally Posted by Bozo the pilot (Post 1534472)

Not always. No absolutes.

Originally Posted by RyanP (Post 1534510)

Places like emirates want jet glass time above 30 tons. Partially why I moved over to the CRJ7

Originally Posted by SebastianDesoto (Post 1534519)

Thanks for posting that. Some people are discounting ME carriers and other foreign carriers (Air Japan). They do not need TPIC time and offer good pay to start. Not easy jobs to get, but they seem to be fine with getting disgruntled regional FOs, especially ones from Endeavor, PSA and Eagle.

If you are at a company that is insisting on more concessions which would put you in a position to suffer 2-5 years in working conditions you did not sign up for, I would highly recommend giving them consideration. At least if you are going to suffer through crappy work rules, get compensated for it :)

I got an acceptance letter from baby Emirates (flydubai) and they do not need the +30 tons. Jet time is a must. 737 Type rating is highly preferred.

Originally Posted by embraer (Post 1534488)

In fact the only thing "golden" these days is military flight time. Without that you are at a huge disadvantage. In particular at Delta and AA. All the TPIC time in the world won't make a difference.

Once all the military applicants dry up TPIC still won't make a difference. Already we are seeing FOs with zero PIC time being hired by majors. PIC is not as valuable as it was 10 years ago. It amazes me how some people still live in the past in regards to the "chasing PIC time" mentality.

Originally Posted by Bozo the pilot (Post 1534687)

Agreed- my friends who chased pic Turbine in a TP are realizing it was not worth it. Pdt/commuteair etc.Hope it works out for them but theyre goin against guys with glass jet/military time.

Originally Posted by What (Post 1533664)

yes around 6 ½, there were many folks hired in 2007, but as you get to 2008-2010 the list isn't as saturated. For example I am an early 2011 hire and just under 400 numbers away from the most junior CA on the active list, I also have just over 600 FO below me active.

*** I think you will find that many regionals are in the same situation with a huge amount of guys hired in 2007, then in 2008 things slowed down and picked back up late 2010 early 2011. And you know these numbers are as such due to age 65 kicking in late 2007 and economic downturn 2008 with things improving in late 2010. Eagle was one of the first regional to hire in 2010 because they took delivery of 22 CR7 that were mostly growth at the time, then later in 2010 the flow thru started for guys who had numbers at AA. Hiring in 2011 was negligible as we furlough 50 folks and offered LOA to 100 IIRC. Anyway, on paper the upgrade time is 6 ½ years but there are many FO's who were hired in 2007 so it will take some time to work thru those, then things will speed up and then slow down again as you get into 2011 hires. But as you know things are fluid, you need the airframes to be able to have CA and the FO to be able to upgrade.