The order for the E jet was started at the end of this last summer and has almost been completely finalized. The rumor is that the final contract language is being delayed so as to attach actual 175 serial numbers promised by AAG to the agreement. In the event Eagle rejects the offer and AAG is unable to farm the flying out to another regional, or another FFD carrier is unable to offer their own 175s or staff new 175s courtesy of AAG... the remainder of the aircraft options are convertible to E-190/5s and could be delivered without interruption and on schedule to the new AAG. These would fall into the group 1 classification defined in the new section 3 at the new AAG.

 

In light of listening to the conference call and reading Winkley's letter, I believe there is much change happening specifically to some of Eagle's bases (Envoy's bases). There was an announcement and subsequent discussion on the conference call regarding "re-banking" of some of the American System, particularly in MIA, DFW, and ORD. It was stated that the "re-banking" will take place initially this fall in MIA, followed by other bases excluding New York & LAX. The primary discussion on the call regarded "re-fleeting." There was much talk about "replacing" 50 seats into 76 seats, and exchanging such aircraft. This is very much inline with Winkley's letter.

Furthermore, it was stated that 25 E140's will be retired in 2014 in addition to 2 -100's (not Envoy's of course). NO MENTION of E145's. Total regional aircraft count currently 558 and will increase to 574 (not necessarily all in 2014). It was specifically said the 60 E-175's have NOT been allocated and that Envoy's pilots will be voting on a new contract in February.

Lastly, based on current Eagle contract, Eagle should be receiving their bonus based on financial results come March. I could not decipher the actual margin Eagle earned but overall combined carriers future margin is projected to be 6-8%. Based on that if Eagle's is inline, pilots would earn a minimum of 15% of pre-tax profit based on letter 13-05.

With that said, there was nothing earth shattering, but based on the letter and conference call, there is assured to be big changes in "re-fleeting" and "re-banking," which would occur to be taking place in MIA very soon, followed by DFW & ORD.

 

What exactly does "re-banking" in those domiciles mean? Grow? Shrink?

 

In short, neither. It's a system wide domicile adjustment. It adjusts capacity and arrival/departure times and schedules. The capacity can be adjusted by increasing or decreasing capacity on certain routes and adjusting times to accommodate layover times and such.

As stated on the call, they are planning on adding capacity on certain routes by replacing type of aircraft flown. It was specifically stated about the exchange of 50 to 76 seats in the same conversation of banking.

They said by banking such times it will improve revenues and net profits by the millions of dollars (I don't recall the exact amounts mentioned if it did.).

In my opinion, Winkley and company are not bluffing on many matters. It might not be all spelled out exactly how it might be, but at the same time they ARE going to adjust capacity and distribution of flying especially at some of Eagle's domiciles....with our without Envoy flying it. That's the impression I got after listening to the conference call and reading Winkley's letter.

 

Judging by the last ALPA communication it appears Sprague believes in the shut down scenario.

 

Or you might just get a better offer the second time around.

 

This is the second time around for us. Will there be a third? Who knows. The company has stated that it's now or never, but we all know what their word is worth...

 

+1. Considering this IS the second time around, the company will go for option #2. They already have another regional to go to in case this TA falls through and its NOT PSA. More flying will be given away along with all the CRJ's.

It will be a slow dying process until the last EMB 145 is gone.

So there, there will be no 3 time to bite the apple…

 

It would be the third time around if that's the case, and yes, maybe you're right, but maybe not. I believe that should be up to the pilots to decide and not only the MEC. There's a lot a stake and everyone should have a chance to vote in my opinion.

The fact is, there are billions of dollars in aircraft orders. With a clear strategy of adjusting MIA times, schedules, and capacity starting in the fall, followed by DFW & ORD. Do you think they will be waiting much longer to make a move? Or do you think they will come back to the table?

I'm not advocating a yes vote by any means because this deal is probably not worth a yes vote. But the pressure has been put on Eagle by the likes of PSA.

AAG IS going to put these somewhere and will be announcing relatively soon. They WILL be banking the hubs which will have a direct impact one way or another. Many believe management lies all the time to labor (which they may do or at the very least make gross exaggerations), but you can not lie to investors and the SEC. They have a plan, it's in the earnings calls and reports. It will be determined how Eagle/Envoy fits in that puzzle...maybe vote no and get it anyway, maybe not.

 

Most likely mgt knows where the airframes are going already. They just want to lock y'all into a contract as cheaply as possible for the next 10 years. They know they cannot cover your flying with anybody else because they see nobody else can fill a class either. That's why they've sweetened the deal once already.

And did you see how much AAG made last qtr? You think they need these concessions? Why in hell would you give them concessions? Hold the line. Get paid what you deserve!