Cubdriver

I'm not selling, I'm telling. Those are facts up there, not my personal opinion. If you prefer a recruiter's sales pitch to the facts then be my guest and pitch the sale for them- but you will be factually wrong.

ClickClickBoom

Why no annotations or source materials reference, absent that its a sales pitch. ATP without a medical? How bout age 65, Commercial Certificates issued to foreign students, and the largest variable of all the people with certificates listed, are you so obsessed with this job to think that EVERY certificate holder listed wants to be an airline pilot? Sad fact, it isn't the money keeping the other half of your pilots away from this job, its the job its self. The thought of having to commute 6 hours on a plane that they may or may not get on due to loads, crappy pay, benefits and to opportunity to work any of the 365 days of the year, or 6 of 7 days a week, or any of the 24 hours in a day. And/or stay in any number of nasty biologically contaminated hotel rooms, some at their own costs. Face it even major pay is less than it was in the '80 without any adjustments. So yes, even if your chart was even remotely accurate, it means nothing without context. This industry has gone down the one way street, of self destruction, of its own accord. Any pilot with the ability to do a Google search can find out everything they need to know in .06 seconds.

Cubdriver

It says in the same post what it's based on.

CLT Guy

There are dozens, if not hundreds, of variables that you are not mentioning.

Of the ATP's, how many of them are part 121 pilots, and want to be part 121 pilots? How many fly helicopters, or corporate, or part 135, or are in management.

Approximately 10% of a regionals seniority list are management, check airmen, or instructors in most cases. These are non-flying pilots that still have their ATP and medicals.

Also, how many commercial licenses have been issued to people that are not US Citizens and will be going back overseas. At the major flight schools, more than half of the students are non-citizens. In some cases, it is 80%. The number of commercial licenses and CFI's is misleading.

Heck, my CFI was in his late 70's and still had his ATP and current medical. He is obviously not available to go to the airlines, but still instructs on the side. Are you counting him, and the other 65+ year olds in the "Active ATP" lists is they have their medical? Some guys like to fly their small planes for years after they retire from the airlines.

Flyhayes

I wonder how many of those 150,000 active ATP's have retired and keep their medicals up to date for GA flying privileges...

CBreezy

There is a significant downward trend in the ATP and Commercial data that you aren't taking into consideration. This is well before the retirement boom was scheduled to start. If there are 150,000 ACTIVE ATPs, where are they? Are there really 70,000 pilots sitting around keeping their medical current just IN CASE they get the call? That just proves that your data is inaccurate or painfully incomplete. I'm going with both actually.

I find it way more likely that there are 150,000 Active ATPs currently employed in commercial aviation than having 70,000 people on the sidelines waiting with anticipation that they get a call from a major. That's ludacris.

Nantonaku

Where is the spike in the graph for all the FOs that got ATPs the last few years? Why are there 100,000 CFIs? There also should be a big down spike after the 2008 recession as aviation loans dried up. I don't doubt the numbers but they look a little suspect. And the regionals are most definitely hurting for pilots right now, I'm not sure how anyone could argue otherwise. That doesn't mean there is a shortage but 30K retention bonuses tells me there is pressure on the supply in some form.

badflaps

There are five at my little thirteen hanger airport alone.

Cubdriver

I'm not going to sit here and argue about this stuff. Take it up with the FAA statistics people. If you wish to believe there's a pilot shortage I doubt any number of facts will deter you anyway. The airlines are only short on people who will work for low wages, that's all, and it is not a pilot shortage by any common definition of the term.

CBreezy

And your terrible facts suggest that there are 70,000 people waiting in the wings. Think a little man. That's ridiculous. Your conclusion is wrong.