it was a net loss...now a wash with the 9 delta flying...but rumors say some of those planes are coming from the republic side

 

Not in a million years will that happen

I might go interview with the rev just so I can tell them where to shove it.

Nah.

 

And your point is what, exactly?

 

Supply will outpace demand for pilots for the next ten years like it always has. By a lot.

Fact: there are about 80,000 airline pilot jobs here in the US, based on data culled from APC employer lists.
Fact: There are about 150,000 active ATP pilots around to fill those jobs, based on public FAA airmen data. Active means they are keeping their medicals current.

That's almost a 2:1 excess of current ATP pilots, and we have not dipped into the pipeline which contains thousands of eligible Comms and CFIs.

 

Keep selling that one, no one is buying it, specially the airlines. Having chatted with many of the SKYW recruiters, the well is drying up fast and they are drilling into new areas. The reality is before the industry goes to the political effort of buying politicians(expensive) to get the regs modified, they will take the next most logical approach, hire the competitions talent, and if they won't hire on to a regional they will just not renew/award their contracts. This will furlough pilots onto the street and since TSA(or fill in the blank) will be hiring pilots, being the sheeple they are will rush to the regional that is hiring CQFOs. There are plenty of regionals out there to ravage.

 

I'm not selling, I'm telling. Those are facts up there, not my personal opinion. If you prefer a recruiter's sales pitch to the facts then be my guest and pitch the sale for them- but you will be factually wrong.

 

Why no annotations or source materials reference, absent that its a sales pitch. ATP without a medical? How bout age 65, Commercial Certificates issued to foreign students, and the largest variable of all the people with certificates listed, are you so obsessed with this job to think that EVERY certificate holder listed wants to be an airline pilot? Sad fact, it isn't the money keeping the other half of your pilots away from this job, its the job its self. The thought of having to commute 6 hours on a plane that they may or may not get on due to loads, crappy pay, benefits and to opportunity to work any of the 365 days of the year, or 6 of 7 days a week, or any of the 24 hours in a day. And/or stay in any number of nasty biologically contaminated hotel rooms, some at their own costs. Face it even major pay is less than it was in the '80 without any adjustments. So yes, even if your chart was even remotely accurate, it means nothing without context. This industry has gone down the one way street, of self destruction, of its own accord. Any pilot with the ability to do a Google search can find out everything they need to know in .06 seconds.

 

It says in the same post what it's based on.

 

There are dozens, if not hundreds, of variables that you are not mentioning.

Of the ATP's, how many of them are part 121 pilots, and want to be part 121 pilots? How many fly helicopters, or corporate, or part 135, or are in management.

Approximately 10% of a regionals seniority list are management, check airmen, or instructors in most cases. These are non-flying pilots that still have their ATP and medicals.

Also, how many commercial licenses have been issued to people that are not US Citizens and will be going back overseas. At the major flight schools, more than half of the students are non-citizens. In some cases, it is 80%. The number of commercial licenses and CFI's is misleading.

Heck, my CFI was in his late 70's and still had his ATP and current medical. He is obviously not available to go to the airlines, but still instructs on the side. Are you counting him, and the other 65+ year olds in the "Active ATP" lists is they have their medical? Some guys like to fly their small planes for years after they retire from the airlines.

 

I think the definition of 'ACTIVE' being holding a current medical is marginal at best.