Cubdriver

You're the one claiming there's a shortage. I showed that view is not in very good alignment with some pretty basic facts about the numbers of ATP airmen around. If you think 70,000 active of those ATP's are not interested in the airlines, then where's the facts to support that claim? At best there seems to be something amiss in the business of claiming there's a pilot shortage if it cannot account for these basic facts. How do you know they are not interested, and if not, then how do you know they would not apply tomorrow if the salaries were competitive with other fields?

CBreezy

If half our profession was unemployed, it would support your statistics. The historical unemployment rate of pilots is 2%. My point is, the study was poorly and hastily done. Your point is "see! No shortage! These vague and poorly defined numbers prove it! "

Cubdriver

My study is poorly done? I have no study, I just pointed out two basic facts about how many people are eligible for these jobs and how many of these jobs there are in America. Please do not plant words in my mouth, I said nothing about proof. The reader can think what they want about these two facts I stated, but they are still facts that must be dealt with when making the pilot shortage argument. If you want to shoot down the number of FAA active ATPs then be my guest, but use hard data.

TalkTurkey

#agreeToDisagree. The ATP spike with new FARs is a great point in that debate. Factual data aside, using the current hiring demands, regionals feeding off of other regionals, there's no question that there is absolutely a pilot shortage.

ClickClickBoom

Raw statistics are just that raw. You are working from one end of the concept, completely ignoring details like ATP + live person does not equal potential airline candidate. Working from my end of the concept, I am talking to the very people who do the interviewing and hiring, the field is beyond thin, its almost empty. So you can take the position there are X amount of these flavor pilots so there is no pilot shortage, quick email all the regionals who are offering signing bonuses of ever increasing amounts, and one is offering a retention of sorts(according to the interwebs). Sorry your theory is flawed at some level, I have been a Captain for 10 years, and the experience level of the F/Os I have been flying with has been falling every year. I fly with guys who went from the right seat of a 172 to CRJ, freight dogs are far and few in between. My position while anecdotal is shared by many of my contemporaries. When I was hired, we had few CFI only guys and they were pretty high time CFIIs with lots of MEL dual flown and given. Today that example is the Unicorn of the regional industry. Don't listen to the industry, watch the money, it will tell all. FAAs motto, "To Promote and Regulate"

CBreezy

I use rational thought. There is no way there are 70,000 people sitting around paying $100 or more a year in the hopes the airlines raise their pay tomorrow.

NewPil0t

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/res...dia/201325.pdf

Reference: FAA 2012 Airman medical statistics..

115K total effective 1st class medical certificates active.

CBreezy

All international students in the US get a 1st class medical.

Cubdriver

These people on the ATP list can also have 2nd or 3rd class medicals and still be considered active by FAA definition. You have not removed a single person from the (150k) active ATP number with that statistic, in fact you indirectly support the notion that a lot of them not only are active ATPs they are airline-ready and are keeping their airline credentials current.

tinman1

Not true. I worked at two different flight schools with a heavy amount of Chinese contracts and all of those students got a second class when they came over here.