Yeah, I think that stat was from the active AA side. Even more on the US side percentage wise.

 

Again, expect a delay due to hiring stopping or slowing dramatically due to PBS/INT-DOM. PHX will likely close and/or possibly be consolidated into LAX as a satellite. No growth is anticipated through 2018 and all aircraft deliveries are for retirements only. The options are as yet unexercised.

There are multiple aspects already factored in that are virtually certain to negatively impact the Envoy flow from the Pollyanna projections that some at Envoy are desperately clinging to. Should the unforeseen more serious situations occur, such as an economic collapse in the U.S. or abroad affecting the U.S., war breaking out in the middle east once again spiking oil prices back up to the $120-150/barrel range (putin is scheming to make this happen as we speak and the Saudis are attempting to right now) or terrorism rears its ugly head here again (long overdue actually), well........then things get really unpleasant for the lollipop lickers.

Ahh....if life and this industry was only the Katy Perry video with candy canes and California Gurls that many plan it to be would things be grand.

Ostrich holes are sure quiet on the ears though, eh ?

 

Please recognize flow as the MANAGEMENT marketing tool that it is. Flow gives management the power to get you into the right seat of THEIR RJ (they are competing desperately for qualified pilots), and keep you there as long as they can. THAT is their goal, to keep pilots flying in the cheap seats, for as long as possible. They know this regional game is coming to an end so they are throwing the flow carrots out there in a desperate attempt to recruit.

Please realize that for the most part, flow will only slow your career down. Management will decide the order and the speed of you flowing to the mainline. In most cases, that will take years.

Don’t give management control over your career. They will keep you in the cheap seats as long as they can. In the near future, you will be able to prep for the interview and get to a major on your own much more quickly than any flow is going to get you there. Do not give anything up for flow. It will no longer be needed.

If the regional of your choice happens to offer a flow, that’s great. It’s a good back-up plan if all else fails. But don’t let that be a deciding factor.

Some will say – But the majors have 10,000 applications on file. Yep. That’s true. But most of those 10,000 applications are on file at American, Delta, United, Southwest, FedEx, UPS . . . The SAME 10,000 apps are in everywhere. Once the flood gates open, it won’t take long for them to get through those applications. Just my opinion. But, hey, what do I know.

 

All true. Seniority is the name of the game. It's clear that many of those "10,000 apps" will get passed over or their owners will be unsuccessful in their interview processes for any number of reasons, many of which aren't their fault. It may take multiple attempts at carrier X or faliure at X before success at carrier Y. That being the case, do you want to place your bets on flow X working or getting your most important competitive bird in the hand, that being PIC time ?

Envoy is slated to shrink and that's a fact. Perhaps by as much as half. That does NOT support getting that bird in the hand. Envoy is essentially a poisoned well at this point, it's just management hopes they can pour enough sugar in to make those thirsty think it's not only safe to drink, but desirable.......even tasty. Sadly, many already foundering around in that barrel know they need more to join them to maximize their own escape options. It's kind of like a "misery loves company" scenario, but in this case they need company. Should Envoy managements hopes not materialize which is the more likely of the two scenarios, MAJOR moves with Envoy are likely and that will likely slow advancement there Ben further as that's when a merger (or possible divestiture) hits the front burner.

In the event Envoy is merged with another regional, that will only lengthen the flow prospects for all concerned, especially those who came in at the back end (even worse, jumping from one to the other and ending up more junior then you were). The fact is, AAG has committed to over a hundred new E-175's and somebody has to fly them. If the well is drying up, why would they only exacerbate that by increasing uncompensated attrition ?

They'd only be assisting in the strangling of their own feed network.

 

Its confirmed.

Frosty tips aka highlights on hair, and this kind of music? The FAs were right after all.... Not that there is anything wrong with that....

Good Luck.

 

A flow is nice to have in your back pocket; but nobody should actually need it unless they are soley focused on AA.

Even if AA does slow down, it's temporary.

 

"Frosty tips" ?

Hey, I kinda like that. It's got panache.

Since were handing out names, I'm going to christen you Pinocchio celebrating your long nose of fabrication. The only question is how long can that nose go ?

Your Embraer also has a long, pointy nose too, but it's more honest.

Happy New Year Pinocchio !

 

"Temporary" is a subjective term. The flow has a better then even chance of actually stopping for awhile. I realize in your position, optimism is attractive.

 

In the interest of providing factual information, it was 15 yrs ago when I heard that. More than a year to go (best case) before it finally happens.

 

Just overheard two PSA FOs (both still very junior from what I gathered from the conversation) talking about how they can't wait to flow to AA soon......correct me if I'm wrong, but PSA does not have flow at this moment?!? Think it's pretty bad these clowns don't even know what's in their contract that they voted in. Also to think that even if they did have flow that they as Jr FOs would be flowing anytime soon. Sad sad sad.