Pilot Shortage (2015 Embry Riddle summit)
01-14-2015 | 06:31 AM
#41
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To the contrary, strong evidence supports the notion there are many more pilots in the US than there are airline jobs. See the FAA active airmen stats for example. Those pilots do other things than fly for regionals, like work at Home Depot and sell houses, people like me who left the industry, because the regionals will not support a middle class lifestyle or guarantee anyone a job at a major. So there is no shortage in the US, just an industry that is addicted to cheap labor and wants it to come back again. That's what this summit is really about.
01-14-2015 | 07:03 AM
#42
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That's not likely to happen, but it's what should happen.
Bottom line is its all supply and demand. If the companies were allowed to outsource the labor reliably to foreigners safely they would in a heartbeat. As professionals we have to hold out for appropriate compensation.
01-14-2015 | 07:14 AM
#43
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To the contrary, strong evidence supports the notion there are many more pilots in the US than there are airline jobs. See the FAA active airmen stats for example. Those pilots do other things than fly for regionals, like work at Home Depot and sell houses, people like me who left the industry, because the regionals will not support a middle class lifestyle or guarantee anyone a job at a major. So there is no shortage in the US, just an industry that is addicted to cheap labor and wants it to come back again. That's what this summit is really about.
01-14-2015 | 07:29 AM
#44
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If we operated in a free labor market, this problem would not exist. The RLA allows wages to stay lower than they would otherwise and encourages prospective pilots to not even enter the profession.
There should have been many small corrections over the last decade, but now we are gearing up for a huge correction. At the rate regional pilots are leaving and are being hired, the size of the regional work force will shrink by an increasing percentage every year. Within 5 years there will be just a few thousand regional pilots left if nothing changes.
Even adding another 10-20k per year will do nothing. Most want mainline jobs that pay even more. The point that it would be viable to stay at a regional is the point that it no longer makes sense to operate the Arline as the cost advantage will no longer exist.
There should have been many small corrections over the last decade, but now we are gearing up for a huge correction. At the rate regional pilots are leaving and are being hired, the size of the regional work force will shrink by an increasing percentage every year. Within 5 years there will be just a few thousand regional pilots left if nothing changes.
Even adding another 10-20k per year will do nothing. Most want mainline jobs that pay even more. The point that it would be viable to stay at a regional is the point that it no longer makes sense to operate the Arline as the cost advantage will no longer exist.
01-14-2015 | 07:39 AM
#45
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^^^^^ This just needed to re-stated. Spot-on! ^^^^^^^^
01-14-2015 | 07:39 AM
#46
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What they need to do is lower the income gap between regional and mainline. I think a regional ca knows they shouldn't be making 200 bucks an hour flying a 70 seater but at the same time they should be making slightly below the wage of a mainline guy flying a 90 seater like a 190. So about 120 an hour. Same with FOs, the average mainline FOs pay is around 90 to 100 bucks an hour. They should be close to that at least 60 to 70.
01-14-2015 | 07:48 AM
#47
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What they need to do is lower the income gap between regional and mainline. I think a regional ca knows they shouldn't be making 200 bucks an hour flying a 70 seater but at the same time they should be making slightly below the wage of a mainline guy flying a 90 seater like a 190. So about 120 an hour. Same with FOs, the average mainline FOs pay is around 90 to 100 bucks an hour. They should be close to that at least 60 to 70.
Is there any question that ^^^ THIS ^^^^ would, (in very short-order), solve the shortage of pilots for any regional airline adoptin it?
I don't think so. But hey, let's convene a two-day summit at Humpty Diddle to see if we can come up with an idea (other than increasing pay) to solve the problem that WE CREATED!!!!
I snicker at the mental image of these self-important stuffed-shirts attending this conference and craning their necks to avoid seeing that HUGE elephant in the room. "What elephant?? I don't see an elephant!! Who left that big pile of elephant dung on the floor??"
01-14-2015 | 07:57 AM
#48
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But they will always need regional feed at at the end of the day a regional CA/FO that makes 150 bucks an hour collectively is still cheaper than a mainline crew that might make 3 times that.
What they need to do is lower the income gap between regional and mainline. I think a regional ca knows they shouldn't be making 200 bucks an hour flying a 70 seater but at the same time they should be making slightly below the wage of a mainline guy flying a 90 seater like a 190. So about 120 an hour. Same with FOs, the average mainline FOs pay is around 90 to 100 bucks an hour. They should be close to that at least 60 to 70.
What they need to do is lower the income gap between regional and mainline. I think a regional ca knows they shouldn't be making 200 bucks an hour flying a 70 seater but at the same time they should be making slightly below the wage of a mainline guy flying a 90 seater like a 190. So about 120 an hour. Same with FOs, the average mainline FOs pay is around 90 to 100 bucks an hour. They should be close to that at least 60 to 70.
The cost advantage does not only lie in pilot wages. As the regional experience large scale shrinkage, the Cheif:Indian ratio changes as well. I don't know where the break even point is, but with a small number of aircraft, it would be cheaper to staple and pay mainline RJ rates and eliminating the whole management structure and it would to keep a whole management team and infrastructure.
01-14-2015 | 08:01 AM
#49
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**********************************
Is there any question that ^^^ THIS ^^^^ would, (in very short-order), solve the shortage of pilots for any regional airline adoptin it?
I don't think so. But hey, let's convene a two-day summit at Humpty Diddle to see if we can come up with an idea (other than increasing pay) to solve the problem that WE CREATED!!!!
I snicker at the mental image of these self-important stuffed-shirts attending this conference and craning their necks to avoid seeing that HUGE elephant in the room. "What elephant?? I don't see an elephant!! Who left that big pile of elephant dung on the floor??"
Is there any question that ^^^ THIS ^^^^ would, (in very short-order), solve the shortage of pilots for any regional airline adoptin it?
I don't think so. But hey, let's convene a two-day summit at Humpty Diddle to see if we can come up with an idea (other than increasing pay) to solve the problem that WE CREATED!!!!
I snicker at the mental image of these self-important stuffed-shirts attending this conference and craning their necks to avoid seeing that HUGE elephant in the room. "What elephant?? I don't see an elephant!! Who left that big pile of elephant dung on the floor??"
01-14-2015 | 08:08 AM
#50
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A lot of good points and valid observations have been made in this thread. One negative bullet point mentioned that scared me a little bit was increasing retirement to age 67.
Obviously they'd only be kicking the can down the road, but its viability scares me. Everyone's career delayed another two years. And aside from pushing Congress to pass it, the airline's wouldn't have to do anything else to address the real issues, leaving us stuck in regional limbo.
I think at the end of the day, what we truly need to see is higher airfares. To get competent rampers in Denver, to rival the in-flight quality of Singapore/Emirates (I'd argue that's important if US carriers hope to stay competitive internationally), and to pay pilots a reasonable wage. Joe Pax can fly Spirit if he doesn't like it.
Obviously they'd only be kicking the can down the road, but its viability scares me. Everyone's career delayed another two years. And aside from pushing Congress to pass it, the airline's wouldn't have to do anything else to address the real issues, leaving us stuck in regional limbo.
I think at the end of the day, what we truly need to see is higher airfares. To get competent rampers in Denver, to rival the in-flight quality of Singapore/Emirates (I'd argue that's important if US carriers hope to stay competitive internationally), and to pay pilots a reasonable wage. Joe Pax can fly Spirit if he doesn't like it.
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