Originally Posted by Grumpyaviator

However, the four days a week for 15 years I've been on the jumpseat to DTW and ATL

Originally Posted by Justdoinmyjob

You ride a jumpseat four days a week? When do you have time to actually fly? No wonder you are a grumpy aviator.

Originally Posted by GSintercept

Anybody have any thoughts on the Endeavor flow to delta????

Originally Posted by Skyvector

There is a very important reason that happened. 9/11. It produced what is known as the "lost decade" in aviation. Majors stopped hiring, many furloughed, at AA many flowed "backwards" to Eagle which was nice since they still had a job...

But there is one key, fundamental thing to remember about 9/11 and the lost decade: There were NO retirements from any of the major airlines in large numbers. Their pilots were still a decade or more away from age 60...then in 2007 we got age 65 which kicked the can further down the road.

So here we are in 2015, and how are things different? First and foremost: Retirements. Here are the retirement numbers for AA:

2015 - 285
2016 - 341
2017 - 424
2018 - 562
2019 - 692
2020 - 796
2021 - 830
2022 - 870
2023 - 1,003
2024 - 956

Whatever happens, even if there were another 9/11 all those people would still be REQUIRED by law to retire. Each one of those positions will have to be replaced. And those numbers are just the mandatory retirements. They don't take into consideration early retirements or any hiring done for GROWTH...and AA is most certainly growing as is Delta and United.

So look at those numbers again. Now think about this: Envoy gets 50% of each class. That is flow through, no interview, no medical. Your Envoy interview is your AA interview and done. With all those numbers, our current MOST JUNIOR pilot at Envoy is 5 years from flowing. That means that any new hire at Envoy is looking at moving up to AA with no other interview in under 6 years.

Ok, so why not just upgrade, get PIC time and interview? Good question. PIC time is not what it used to be at all. Everybody has PIC time these days.

Let's say you do the quickie upgrade thing at some other Regional and hit the "magic" 1,000 hours of PIC. Great...now what? Apply to all the majors? Guess what: Every single other Regional Captain also has PIC...so does EVERY SINGLE pilot flying for the LCCs like Spirit, JetBlue, etc....

So that is tens of thousands of pilots, all with PIC (more than you) all competing for the same position. What will make the majors hire you specifically? Your good looks? The answer is that you will most likely spend years waiting in line. In the mean time you will end up at an LCC...which is fine. It's a step up from the Regionals but it's not one of the big 3, is it? Lets be honest. Then after another 5 years or more at the LCC level you MIGHT have another chance at United or Delta.

This is why people these days are realizing that FLOW as it stands today is more valuable than PIC time. Much more. Take what is currently happening at American Airlines.

As I mentioned, Envoy gets 50% of each class. That is a whopping number. Piedmont gets I believe 4 spots. What that means, in practice, is that off the street hires at AA are almost 100% military and/or family. If you are a civilian trained Regional pilot with little to no contacts you don't stand a chance at off the street hire with AA. Flow is your only ticket.

So that leaves you only two options: Delta or United. And the same goes for every other pilot out there. So again, here you are competing for that one position with tens of thousands of other pilots. Including military pilots who will always have priority when it comes to hiring. Sorry, but it's just the way it is. Will you eventually make it? Possibly...maybe, maybe not. But at what expense? How many years or decades worth of seniority will you lose?

On the other hand, you could be at a major (AA) in 5 years by coming to Envoy or Piedmont and not even have to interview again. One interview: the one you do for Envoy. And that is it. When your number comes up for AA you just click YES or NO online and transfer over. That is why flow today is better.

Originally Posted by Grumpyaviator

There's a difference between integration of like companies due to merger and growth and taking on pilots from the regionals due to flow/staple. I'd say the NW/Republic and even Western pilots didn't need 80 hours of OE to learn how to fly a visual pattern and flare properly.

Like I said, AAG doesn't realize what caliber of pilot its committing itself to by using flows to sell its WOs to new hires, especially new hires that now think they have the regionals by the nads because they're hurting for pilots.

Originally Posted by Mesabah

The dynamics of the divide. You see, management must drive a wedge between the two employee groups if it wants to save money on regional flying. If we hate each other, they win big.

Originally Posted by Navmode

I'm yet see any solid evidence that said 'floodgates' exist. I find it hard to believe that the hiring environment with the majors is ever going to be in the same sport, let alone the same ball park as what the regional side is in now.

Originally Posted by Saabs

We are not growing at AA but shrinking by 30 airplanes.