Upgrades
12-31-2015 | 07:17 AM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 325
Likes: 0
From: Eff Oh Won Fo Fife
There are a lot of transitions occurring at the moment, but there are nearly as many new hires coming on board at the same time. The only limitation on training is space at the training center and at flight safety. The new training center coming on line this spring should alleviate some of that pressure.
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Over the last few classes, it's been 1 new hire per 3 transitioning or upgrading pilot. We're still at a monthly net loss of pilots, overall.
12-31-2015 | 07:22 AM
#32
Beagle B21
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 142
Likes: 0
Upgrade....
I was at 9E (Pinnacle) in 2012. I was hired in 2011. Before I left I was about number 2,700 out of about 3,000. When we were hired we were told that they were hiring 60/month for the foreseeable future, that we'd upgrade in 18 months,...and that I'd get the ATL base out of training. Well, bankruptcy came, they closed ATL, and it looked like I'd be commuting to reserve again.
A buddy who was in my initial training class is still there and he's about number 1,450 out of about 1,600. I heard that Delta wants to bring back 30 of the 200's out of the desert in 2016. If you assume staffing of 4.5 crews per a/c, that's 270 pilot seats that will need to be filled. Delta is supposed to take about 12 pilots per month from the DGI program so that's 144. Total of 414 plus attrition. If you lose 10/month to attrition then that's another 120 for a total of 534. You need to be at or around 50% to upgrade. Some senior FO's won't upgrade for various reasons so you might not have to be all the way to 50%.
Do the math. If you're 1,601 in January then you'll be 1,067 at the end of December 2016. If they can hire 60/month like they want to do in 2016 and lose 534 in 2016 then you'll be # 1,067 out of 1,786. That's about 60% up the list. Lots of IF's in there.
Someone please check my math.
A buddy who was in my initial training class is still there and he's about number 1,450 out of about 1,600. I heard that Delta wants to bring back 30 of the 200's out of the desert in 2016. If you assume staffing of 4.5 crews per a/c, that's 270 pilot seats that will need to be filled. Delta is supposed to take about 12 pilots per month from the DGI program so that's 144. Total of 414 plus attrition. If you lose 10/month to attrition then that's another 120 for a total of 534. You need to be at or around 50% to upgrade. Some senior FO's won't upgrade for various reasons so you might not have to be all the way to 50%.
Do the math. If you're 1,601 in January then you'll be 1,067 at the end of December 2016. If they can hire 60/month like they want to do in 2016 and lose 534 in 2016 then you'll be # 1,067 out of 1,786. That's about 60% up the list. Lots of IF's in there.
Someone please check my math.
12-31-2015 | 07:30 AM
#33
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 701
Likes: 19
From: Airplane
I was at 9E (Pinnacle) in 2012. I was hired in 2011. Before I left I was about number 2,700 out of about 3,000. When we were hired we were told that they were hiring 60/month for the foreseeable future, that we'd upgrade in 18 months,...and that I'd get the ATL base out of training. Well, bankruptcy came, they closed ATL, and it looked like I'd be commuting to reserve again.
A buddy who was in my initial training class is still there and he's about number 1,450 out of about 1,600. I heard that Delta wants to bring back 30 of the 200's out of the desert in 2016. If you assume staffing of 4.5 crews per a/c, that's 270 pilot seats that will need to be filled. Delta is supposed to take about 12 pilots per month from the DGI program so that's 144. Total of 414 plus attrition. If you lose 10/month to attrition then that's another 120 for a total of 534. You need to be at or around 50% to upgrade. Some senior FO's won't upgrade for various reasons so you might not have to be all the way to 50%.
Do the math. If you're 1,601 in January then you'll be 1,067 at the end of December 2016. If they can hire 60/month like they want to do in 2016 and lose 534 in 2016 then you'll be # 1,067 out of 1,786. That's about 60% up the list. Lots of IF's in there.
Someone please check my math.
A buddy who was in my initial training class is still there and he's about number 1,450 out of about 1,600. I heard that Delta wants to bring back 30 of the 200's out of the desert in 2016. If you assume staffing of 4.5 crews per a/c, that's 270 pilot seats that will need to be filled. Delta is supposed to take about 12 pilots per month from the DGI program so that's 144. Total of 414 plus attrition. If you lose 10/month to attrition then that's another 120 for a total of 534. You need to be at or around 50% to upgrade. Some senior FO's won't upgrade for various reasons so you might not have to be all the way to 50%.
Do the math. If you're 1,601 in January then you'll be 1,067 at the end of December 2016. If they can hire 60/month like they want to do in 2016 and lose 534 in 2016 then you'll be # 1,067 out of 1,786. That's about 60% up the list. Lots of IF's in there.
Someone please check my math.
As far as upgrades here at 9E, the most junior captain is in the upper 900s so that places a 2015 hire around 300-350 to that most junior spot. I've also noticed I move about 30 spots per month. If nothing else happens then: 350/30 = 11.6. I would feel comfortable saying 12-18 months for someone hired this year.
12-31-2015 | 07:37 AM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 312
Likes: 0
From: A321 - 39E
Something for everyone to keep in mind is that the distribution of pilots leaving to new hires coming in does not always move your seniority up. This is mostly due to mil guys checking the 121 box and moving on, but could be for other reasons too. I'm sure it varies place to place, but probably not unreasonable to multiply rate of attrition/rate of hiring by 50%-75% after 6-12 months on the list to see what your seniority number movement realistically might be.
12-31-2015 | 01:22 PM
#35
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 95
Likes: 0
He should be much further in than 1450. I'm a 2015 hire in the low 1300s...
As far as upgrades here at 9E, the most junior captain is in the upper 900s so that places a 2015 hire around 300-350 to that most junior spot. I've also noticed I move about 30 spots per month. If nothing else happens then: 350/30 = 11.6. I would feel comfortable saying 12-18 months for someone hired this year.
As far as upgrades here at 9E, the most junior captain is in the upper 900s so that places a 2015 hire around 300-350 to that most junior spot. I've also noticed I move about 30 spots per month. If nothing else happens then: 350/30 = 11.6. I would feel comfortable saying 12-18 months for someone hired this year.
12-31-2015 | 11:36 PM
#36
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 1,226
Likes: 9
Attrition is definitely starting to pick up at AWAC. While I'm not a CA yet, I have been here 2.5 years and am 70 away from most Jr. CA. Not horrible from a place that was 5-6 year upgrades.
01-01-2016 | 04:59 AM
#37
Beagle B21
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 142
Likes: 0
He should be much further in than 1450. I'm a 2015 hire in the low 1300s...
As far as upgrades here at 9E, the most junior captain is in the upper 900s so that places a 2015 hire around 300-350 to that most junior spot. I've also noticed I move about 30 spots per month. If nothing else happens then: 350/30 = 11.6. I would feel comfortable saying 12-18 months for someone hired this year.
As far as upgrades here at 9E, the most junior captain is in the upper 900s so that places a 2015 hire around 300-350 to that most junior spot. I've also noticed I move about 30 spots per month. If nothing else happens then: 350/30 = 11.6. I would feel comfortable saying 12-18 months for someone hired this year.
Upgrade is great but like someone asked in a previous post, how long to sit reserve? I'm actually considering a return to 9E but the reserve length could be a deal breaker. A month or so would be OK but a year commuting to reserve in NY out of ATL would make me just keep my "real" job....ha ha ha.
01-01-2016 | 07:43 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,499
Likes: 298
From: 737 FO
I have been watching a friend's progress. He started at Skywest in late Oct. He now has about 240 guys below him. There are 1350 between him and the most junior captain.
Looking at the 200 pilots more senior than the junior capt it looks like 15% are still FOs. This number will probably increase as most of the 1350 do not have much time and will wait.
Skywest has 40 planes coming soon, that is at least 200 captain slots with 5 crews per plane.
In 2 months he has moved up 100 numbers.
1350 minus the 200 new captain slots leaves 1150. Take away 15% leaves about 985 pilots. Divide that by the 50 they are losing each month is 19 months. I expect the number leaving to move to 60 a month and I expect the 15% passover rate to climb to 25%. That would make it about 14 months.
This guy has lots of time and experience and lives in the junior base so he will upgrade as soon as he is able. Most would put the number between the 14 and 19 months but Skywest is being aggressive and I know that United, Delta, and Alaska are trying to get them to do lots more flying. Therefore, I expect him to be able to upgrade in less than 14 months.
Gojet is talking 12 to 18 months but United is not going to renew their contracts for flying the CRJ-700s. (United does not want the 700s as you can see they just cancelled the contract for some Skywest 700s for 2016) I am not sure when those are up but I believe one contract for 15 planes is up in 2017 and the other in 2018 or 2020. Can someone add in the correct dates?
Looking at the 200 pilots more senior than the junior capt it looks like 15% are still FOs. This number will probably increase as most of the 1350 do not have much time and will wait.
Skywest has 40 planes coming soon, that is at least 200 captain slots with 5 crews per plane.
In 2 months he has moved up 100 numbers.
1350 minus the 200 new captain slots leaves 1150. Take away 15% leaves about 985 pilots. Divide that by the 50 they are losing each month is 19 months. I expect the number leaving to move to 60 a month and I expect the 15% passover rate to climb to 25%. That would make it about 14 months.
This guy has lots of time and experience and lives in the junior base so he will upgrade as soon as he is able. Most would put the number between the 14 and 19 months but Skywest is being aggressive and I know that United, Delta, and Alaska are trying to get them to do lots more flying. Therefore, I expect him to be able to upgrade in less than 14 months.
Gojet is talking 12 to 18 months but United is not going to renew their contracts for flying the CRJ-700s. (United does not want the 700s as you can see they just cancelled the contract for some Skywest 700s for 2016) I am not sure when those are up but I believe one contract for 15 planes is up in 2017 and the other in 2018 or 2020. Can someone add in the correct dates?
01-01-2016 | 07:53 AM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,186
Likes: 0
From: RJ Captain
SkyWest is only losing 12-15 captains a month. The above assumptions are off a little. -- Most of the attrition is off the bottom of the list - newer FOs.
They'll be about 20 upgrades in February. All of them on the CRJ for MSP. Junior one I'm guessing will be a 2/2012 doh. Not that that matters at all. Upgrade times for those upgrading now have absolutely nothing to do with when someone getting hired now will upgrade. Absolutely nothing.
Some of the CRJ 700s coming off lease with United may not find a new home and be parked. And I think that's the companies plan. There's some very expensive maintenance that needs to be done and it may not be financially viable to do it.
They'll be about 20 upgrades in February. All of them on the CRJ for MSP. Junior one I'm guessing will be a 2/2012 doh. Not that that matters at all. Upgrade times for those upgrading now have absolutely nothing to do with when someone getting hired now will upgrade. Absolutely nothing.
Some of the CRJ 700s coming off lease with United may not find a new home and be parked. And I think that's the companies plan. There's some very expensive maintenance that needs to be done and it may not be financially viable to do it.
01-01-2016 | 08:01 AM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 4,302
Likes: 2
SkyWest is only losing 12-15 captains a month. The above assumptions are off a little. -- Most of the attrition is off the bottom of the list - newer FOs.
They'll be about 20 upgrades in February. All of them on the CRJ for MSP. Junior one I'm guessing will be a 2/2012 doh. Not that that matters at all. Upgrade times for those upgrading now have absolutely nothing to do with when someone getting hired now will upgrade. Absolutely nothing.
Some of the CRJ 700s coming off lease with United may not find a new home and be parked. And I think that's the companies plan. There's some very expensive maintenance that needs to be done and it may not be financially viable to do it.
They'll be about 20 upgrades in February. All of them on the CRJ for MSP. Junior one I'm guessing will be a 2/2012 doh. Not that that matters at all. Upgrade times for those upgrading now have absolutely nothing to do with when someone getting hired now will upgrade. Absolutely nothing.
Some of the CRJ 700s coming off lease with United may not find a new home and be parked. And I think that's the companies plan. There's some very expensive maintenance that needs to be done and it may not be financially viable to do it.
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